LUTSK SECOND WAVE (HIGH): Repeated explosions confirmed in Lutsk, Volyn region, indicating a sustained engagement or BDA-restrike (2328Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
MARITIME UAV INGRESS - ODESA (HIGH): Detection of 12 OWA UAVs (Shahed/moped type) launched from the Black Sea, vectoring toward Chornomorsk and Odesa (2331Z, Nikolaevsky Vanyek, MEDIUM).
KYIV AD ACTIVATION (HIGH): Air defense systems engaged in Kyiv Oblast following drone detections; capital remains under high alert (2319Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
DEEPFAKE IO CAMPAIGN (HIGH): Deployment of a sophisticated malicious disinformation video featuring a dubbed/deepfaked President Zelenskyy, likely aimed at disrupting national unity during the New Year transition (2327Z, NgP Razvedka, HIGH).
MOSCOW THREAT (UNCONFIRMED): Russian partisan sources report a UAF drone attempt to penetrate Moscow airspace. No secondary verification available (2334Z, Operatsiya Z, LOW).
SUSTAINED NORTHERN PRESSURE (HIGH): Ongoing UAV ingress through Chernihiv region continues to saturate northern air defense corridors (2325Z, Air Force ZSU, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The "New Year Blitz" by the Russian Federation (RF) has entered a high-intensity phase, shifting from initial saturation to repeated strikes on western and southern nodes. The operational geometry now reflects a dual-pronged effort: degrading the Ukrainian energy grid (Odesa/Lutsk) while simultaneously engaging in high-fidelity cognitive warfare (Zelenskyy deepfakes).
Battlefield Geometry: The AOR remains expanded into the strategic deep rear of both combatants. The emergence of a maritime launch vector (12 UAVs) indicates a sophisticated multi-axis approach to bypass coastal defenses.
Environmental Factors: Nighttime conditions and holiday-related communication spikes are being exploited by RF to maximize the psychological impact of power outages.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (BY SECTOR)
Western Sector (Lutsk/Volyn):KINETIC REPETITION. The report of "repeated explosions" suggests that RF assets have identified high-value targets (likely energy distribution nodes) and are conducting follow-up strikes. A single UAV was tracked entering the Lutsk approach at 2333Z, likely for final BDA or as a terminal strike asset.
Southern Sector (Odesa/Chornomorsk):DEVELOPING THREAT. The launch of 12 UAVs from the Black Sea represents a tactical shift, possibly utilizing maritime launch platforms or low-altitude ingress to evade shore-based radar. This follows the confirmed strike on Odesa's energy infrastructure reported at 2255Z.
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Chernihiv):AD SATURATION. Active AD engagements in Kyiv Oblast confirm that RF's "northern corridor" (Sumy/Chernihiv) is successfully pushing assets into the capital's inner defense ring.
RF Rear (Moscow):POTENTIAL RETALIATION. Following UAF strikes on Krasnodar and Kaluga, unconfirmed reports suggest UAF is attempting to target Moscow. This would align with a symmetrical response strategy but requires visual confirmation.
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Capabilities & Intentions: The RF is prioritizing energy infrastructure and command-level disinformation. The volume of "mopeds" (UAVs) remains consistent, suggesting that the logistical surge (SAR Score 27.24 at 260th GRAU) is being actively expended in this 24-hour window.
Information Operations: The shift from simple propaganda to malicious deepfakes of the Ukrainian Head of State indicates a high-priority effort to induce command paralysis or civilian panic during a time of high national visibility.
Tactical Adaptation: The use of the Black Sea as a launch point for a 12-UAV swarm suggests an attempt to saturate Odesa's defense from a vector that was previously less active compared to the Crimean land-based launches.
4. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: UAF AD remains highly active across the North and West. The preservation of interceptors for cruise missiles (as recommended in the 1500Z Daily Report) is critical as UAV volumes increase.
Strategic Counter-Strikes: If confirmed, the attempt on Moscow indicates UAF’s continued ability to project power despite the heavy saturation of its own airspace.
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Cognitive Domain: Russian state-aligned channels are flooding the space with soldier greetings and holiday content to project "business as usual" while simultaneously pushing the Zelenskyy deepfake. This "dual-track" IO aims to normalize the RF perspective while delegitimizing Ukrainian leadership.
Symmetry: UAF-aligned channels (Vanyek, Air Force) remain the primary source of actionable tactical warnings, maintaining high credibility relative to RF partisan sources (Operatsiya Z).
6. OUTLOOK (NEXT 6-12H)
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Continued UAV strikes through 0400 local, potentially followed by a dawn wave of sea-launched Kalibr missiles targeting the damaged infrastructure in Odesa and Lutsk to maximize repair timelines.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): The deepfake video serves as a precursor to a "decapitation strike" attempt on Kyiv, utilizing the reported Moscow drone attempt as a pretext for a massive ballistic response against decision-making centers.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Chornomorsk Impact: Need immediate confirmation of targets for the 12 maritime UAVs—are they targeting the grain corridor infrastructure or purely energy?
Lutsk BDA: Determine the specific nature of the "repeated explosions" to assess if AD is being bypassed or if targets are being hit with high precision.
Moscow Penetration: Confirmation of UAF drone proximity to Moscow to assess RF's internal AD readiness and potential retaliatory triggers.
Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad LOC: Despite the focus on the air strike, the 1500Z report of a "grim" situation in Myrnohrad remains a critical gap. Ground truth on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk is urgently required.
