LUTSK KINETIC IMPACT (HIGH): Multiple explosions reported in Lutsk, Volyn region, indicating a breach of Western AD corridors (RBK-Ukraine, 2304Z).
ODESA ENERGY STRIKE (HIGH): Targeted RF attack on energy infrastructure in Odesa region occurred minutes before the 0000 local transition, resulting in a fire at a critical facility (RBK-Ukraine, 2255Z).
UAF DEEP STRIKE - KRASNODAR (HIGH): Successful drone strike confirmed on the Ilsky Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai, resulting in a significant fire (Оперативний ЗСУ, 2301Z).
UAF DEEP STRIKE - KALUGA (HIGH): Multiple UAV impacts reported at an oil depot in Lyudinovo, Kaluga region (RF), with ongoing fires (ЦАПЛІЄНКО, 2237Z).
NORTHERN UAV INGRESS (HIGH): Sustained waves of "moped" UAVs detected entering Chernihiv and Sumy regions from the north, maintaining pressure on the capital's outer AD ring (Air Force, 2247Z, 2256Z).
ZAPORIZHZHIA CASUALTIES (HIGH): Confirmed increase to 5 wounded, including one child, following the MLRS/Smerch strikes reported in the 2235Z sitrep (Zaporizhzhia ODA, 2238Z).
SBU EVACUATION CLAIM (LOW): Pro-RU sources claim SBU personnel are abandoning central administration buildings in Kyiv. UNCONFIRMED; likely a disinformation vector to induce panic (НгП раZVедка, 2240Z).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment has shifted into a synchronized multi-domain engagement at the New Year transition (0000 local). While the RF is executing its predicted saturation strike against the Ukrainian energy grid (Odesa, Lutsk), the UAF has responded with high-leverage asymmetric strikes against RF strategic energy reserves in Kaluga and Krasnodar Krai.
Battlefield Geometry: The conflict has expanded "Deep Rear vs. Deep Rear." Kinetic activity is now spanning from Lutsk (West) to Krasnodar (RF South).
Environmental Factors: Nighttime conditions favor UAF long-range one-way attack (OWA) UAVs hitting RF refineries, while RF uses the same cover for Shahed-type saturation over Northern Ukraine.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (BY SECTOR)
Western Sector (Volyn/Lutsk):ACTIVE ENGAGEMENT. Explosions in Lutsk confirm that RF aerial assets have penetrated the Western air defense bubble. This likely targets regional energy distribution or logistics nodes supporting Western aid.
Southern Sector (Odesa/Zaporizhzhia):KINETIC IMPACT. Odesa is currently dealing with a fire at an energy infrastructure site. In Zaporizhzhia, the focus has shifted to search and rescue as casualty counts rise from previous MLRS strikes.
Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Sumy):ONGOING INGRESS. RF continues to utilize the Northern corridor for persistent UAV harassment, likely serving as pathfinders for a potential second wave of cruise missiles.
RF Rear (Kaluga/Krasnodar):UAF OFFENSIVE. Significant damage to the Ilsky Refinery and Lyudinovo oil depot indicates a coordinated UAF effort to degrade RF fuel logistics and economic throughput simultaneously with the RF's "New Year Blitz."
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Capabilities & Intentions: The RF is prioritizing the "midnight transition" for psychological and infrastructure impact, specifically targeting Odesa and Lutsk. The timing (2255Z) suggests a deliberate attempt to disrupt New Year communications and power during peak civilian usage.
Tactical Adaptations: The RF is maintaining a high volume of low-cost UAVs in the North to fix Ukrainian AD assets while attempting high-value penetrations in the West and South.
Logistics: The previously noted surge at the 260th GRAU Arsenal (SAR 27.24) is manifesting in the sustained volume of strikes across multiple oblasts.
4. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Strategic Deep Strikes: The UAF has demonstrated high operational security (OPSEC) and reach, hitting Ilsky (~400km from frontline) and Lyudinovo (~300km from border) nearly simultaneously. This suggests a pre-planned retaliatory package for the New Year escalation.
Information Operations: Ukrainian channels are pivoting to nationalist commemorations (Stepan Bandera’s birthday, Jan 1) to bolster morale and counter the RF "holiday schadenfreude" narrative (Sternenko, 2235Z; Operativno ZSU, 2238Z).
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
RF Disinformation: The claim that the SBU is "fleeing" central Kyiv (2240Z) is a classic hybrid warfare tactic designed to suggest a decapitation of leadership or an imminent massive strike that UAF leadership is "abandoning" the public to. Confidence: LOW.
Wagner Group Presence: New Year messaging from Wagner-affiliated channels (2245Z) indicates the group remains an active component of the RF information space, despite previous internal friction, likely used to project an image of "united" resolve.
6. OUTLOOK (NEXT 6-12H)
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Continued UAV saturation through the early morning hours, with the risk of a "dawn wave" of cruise missiles (Kalibr/Kh-101) targeting the damage sites in Odesa and Lutsk to prevent rapid repairs.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): RF exploits the reported "SBU evacuation" panic with a concentrated ballistic strike on government quarters in Kyiv, synchronized with a ground probe in the Sumy sector as hinted by Gerasimov’s recent inspection.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Lutsk Impact Assessment: Determine if the explosions in Lutsk involved cruise missiles or OWA UAVs to assess AD penetration capabilities in the West.
Ilsky/Lyudinovo Damage: Satellite BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) required to confirm the extent of the refinery/depot outages and their impact on RF Southern Grouping fuel supply.
Kyiv Posture: Verify the operational status of central SBU/government buildings to debunk or confirm the RF withdrawal claims.
