ZAPORIZHZHIA MLRS STRIKE (HIGH): Immediate threat of high-speed targets and Smerch MLRS launches from the south targeting Zaporizhzhia city (Nikolaevskiy Vaniek, 2216Z; Air Force, 2217Z).
SUMY KINETIC IMPACT (HIGH): Explosion reported in Sumy following the detection of UAVs entering from the north (RBK-Ukraine, 2226Z; Air Force, 2212Z).
NORTHERN INGRESS (HIGH): Continuous UAV waves entering Chernihiv region from the north, moving south toward the capital region (Air Force, 2219Z, 2230Z).
DONBAS REAR TARGETING (MEDIUM): Two UAVs ("mopeds") confirmed on an approach vector toward Kramatorsk (Nikolaevskiy Vaniek, 2220Z).
BALLISTIC THREAT REPRIEVE (MEDIUM): Previous ballistic launch threat from Crimea has been cleared, though regional air alerts remain active (Air Force, 2208Z; Nikolaevskiy Vaniek, 2208Z).
STRATEGIC LEADERSHIP (HIGH): President Zelenskyy released a New Year video address focused on resilience, cautioning that peace depends on sustained resistance and international backing (Zelenskiy, 2208Z).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
As of 2235Z, the theater is characterized by high-frequency, multi-vector aerial harassment. The RF has transitioned from the broad ballistic threat noted in the 2205Z sitrep to localized, high-intensity strikes (MLRS) and sustained UAV saturation.
Battlefield Geometry: The focus has shifted from the far Western logistics hubs (Kovel) to the Northern corridor (Sumy/Chernihiv) and Southeastern tactical centers (Zaporizhzhia/Kramatorsk).
Environmental Factors: Nighttime visibility is being exploited for UAV "moped" ingress; weather remains conducive for high-speed missile/MLRS employment in the South.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (BY SECTOR)
Northern Sector (Sumy/Chernihiv):ACTIVE ENGAGEMENT. Sumy sustained at least one kinetic impact or interception (2226Z). Chernihiv is currently a primary ingress point for UAVs moving toward the interior, with two distinct waves detected within 11 minutes (2219Z, 2230Z).
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia):IMMEDIATE THREAT. The sector is under fire from "Smerch" MLRS systems. This indicates the RF is using shorter-range, high-volume fires instead of the previously feared ballistic missiles from Crimea.
Eastern Sector (Donbas):PENETRATION. The detection of UAVs heading for Kramatorsk (2220Z) indicates a deliberate attempt to strike command and control or logistics nodes in the Donbas tactical rear.
Western Sector (Volyn/Lutsk): Baseline threat remains high (per 2205Z report), though no new strikes have been reported in the last 30 minutes.
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Capabilities & Intentions: The RF is maintaining a "rolling" strike pattern. By lifting the ballistic threat and immediately following with Smerch and UAV ingress, the enemy is attempting to confuse Air Defense (AD) prioritization and trigger multiple, overlapping air alert cycles to maximize psychological fatigue.
Tactical Adaptations: The use of Smerch MLRS against Zaporizhzhia suggests a shift to more cost-effective, high-speed delivery systems for frontline cities, preserving more expensive ballistic assets for deep-strike targets later in the night.
Logistics: The previously identified logistical surge at the 260th GRAU Arsenal (SAR Score 27.24) is now fueling the sustained nature of these UAV waves.
4. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Strategic Posture: Zelenskyy’s New Year address (2208Z) functions as a stabilizing strategic communication (STRATCOM) effort, reinforcing the "strong agreement" policy and rejecting territorial concessions in Donbas.
Air Defense (AD): Units in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia are actively engaging targets. Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are likely prioritizing the Chernihiv/Sumy UAV corridor to preserve high-tier interceptors for the high-speed targets reported over Zaporizhzhia.
Civilian Defense: Subterranean shelters in major cities (e.g., metro stations) are being utilized for New Year events, maintaining public morale despite the "New Year Blitz" (Hayabusa, 2214Z).
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russian Disinformation: RF-affiliated channels (НгП раZVедка) are utilizing "holiday schadenfreude" to demoralize Ukrainian workers and military personnel by highlighting the lack of a holiday break (2205Z).
International Narrative: Pro-RU sources (Alex Parker) are citing WSJ reports to claim RF restraint regarding the Kremlin strike, attempting to portray the RF leadership as disciplined in the face of "provocations" (2216Z).
Hybrid/Maritime IO: Skepticism regarding the Gulf of Finland cable damage is being pushed by Finnish-language pro-RU channels to muddy the waters regarding RF maritime sabotage (Janus Putkonen, 2227Z).
6. OUTLOOK (NEXT 6-12H)
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Continued UAV saturation from Chernihiv and Sumy through 0000Z (local), likely followed by a second wave of high-speed missile or MLRS strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro once AD crews are fatigued.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): A coordinated "midnight volley" using remaining cruise missiles (Kalibr) from the Black Sea, synchronized with the UAVs currently over Kramatorsk and Chernihiv, to strike the power grid exactly at the 0000Z transition.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Zaporizhzhia Damage Assessment: Confirm impact points of Smerch/high-speed targets to identify if the target was energy infrastructure or military staging areas.
Kramatorsk UAV Status: Track the 2220Z UAV wave to confirm if their target is the Kramatorsk airfield or logistics hubs.
Northern Border Activity: Monitor for potential "Group North" ground probes following Gerasimov’s inspection, as UAV "pathfinders" over Sumy/Chernihiv may be conducting pre-offensive ISR.
