CRITICAL BALLISTIC THREAT (HIGH): Launch threat detected for ballistic weaponry from occupied Crimea targeting Southern Ukraine (Nikolaevskiy Vaniek, 2150Z; Air Force, 2150Z).
WESTERN LOGISTICS TARGETING (HIGH): UAV saturation over Kovel (Volyn) has increased to 9 units; active strikes/intercepts ongoing (Nikolaevskiy Vaniek, 2154Z, 2158Z).
ZELENSKYY NEW YEAR ADDRESS / POLICY (HIGH): President Zelenskyy explicitly rejected RF demands to withdraw from Donbas, stating he will only sign a "strong agreement" (Alex Parker Returns, 2149Z; RBK-Ukraine, 2155Z).
KHARKIV VECTOR REINFORCED (HIGH): At least 5 additional UAVs launched from the Vovchansk district toward Kharkiv city (Nikolaevskiy Vaniek, 2144Z).
RF ANNUAL GAINS CLAIM (MEDIUM): RF state media claims the seizure of over 330 settlements in 2025, primarily in the Donetsk region (TASS, 2200Z).
US INTEL CORROBORATION (HIGH): US officials (via WSJ) reiterate that Ukraine was not responsible for the Dec 29 Kremlin residency strike (Оперативний ЗСУ, 2138Z).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
As the theater transitions into 2026 (UTC+2/3), the operational tempo remains at a peak. The Russian Federation (RF) has escalated from a purely UAV-based saturation effort to a multi-domain threat by activating ballistic platforms in Crimea.
Battlefield Geometry: The "New Year's Blitz" has expanded its geographic footprint. While the previous report focused on Odesa and Kyiv, the threat has now shifted heavily toward Western logistics (Kovel) and Eastern tactical rears (Kharkiv/Barvinkove).
Environmental Factors: Operations are proceeding despite the holiday; no significant weather degradation reported that would impede UAV or ballistic flight paths.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (BY SECTOR)
Western Sector (Volyn/Lutsk):CRITICAL. Kovel is under sustained attack by at least 9 UAVs (Nikolaevskiy Vaniek, 2158Z). A separate vector is moving toward Lutsk from the North (Air Force, 2142Z). This suggests a deliberate attempt to sever rail/road logistics during the holiday transition.
Southern Sector (Crimea/Zaporizhzhia):IMMEDIATE THREAT. Detection of ballistic preparations in Crimea has triggered alerts across Zaporizhzhia and the South (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 2200Z). While the alert was briefly lifted for Zaporizhzhia city, the regional missile threat remains active.
Eastern Sector (Kharkiv/Donbas): UAVs are traversing the Kharkiv region toward Barvinkove (Air Force, 2156Z), likely targeting the junction between the Kharkiv and Donetsk operational zones. RF claims of 330 captures in 2025 (TASS, 2200Z) align with observed pressure on the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad line (Dempster-Shafer belief: 0.42).
Northern Sector (Sumy): UAVs detected passing Sumy on a South-Eastern course (Air Force, 2200Z), likely acting as "pathfinders" or decoys for the deeper strike packages heading toward the Donbas rear.
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Capabilities & Intentions: RF is attempting a "Double Squeeze" by saturating the far West (Kovel) to disrupt supplies and the East (Kharkiv/Barvinkove) to disrupt tactical reinforcements. The introduction of ballistic threats from Crimea indicates a shift toward high-velocity strikes, likely targeting command centers or AD batteries.
Tactical Adaptations: The launch of UAVs from Vovchansk (Nikolaevskiy Vaniek, 2144Z) demonstrates the use of "short-range" ingress points to reduce UAF reaction time for Kharkiv city defenses.
Logistics: The previously noted SAR surge at the 260th GRAU Arsenal is manifesting in this sustained multi-vector UAV and ballistic output.
4. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Strategic Posture: President Zelenskyy’s address serves as a strategic "no-retreat" order for the Donbas sector, likely to stabilize front-line morale amid RF claims of settlement captures.
Air Defense (AD): Units are actively engaged in Volyn and Kharkiv. The concentration of 9 UAVs on Kovel will test the local AD density, which is generally lower than in Kyiv or Odesa.
Morale: Targeted messaging to the 47th Mechanized Brigade (Magura) indicates a command-level focus on maintaining the integrity of high-readiness units during the holiday period (47th Brigade, 2142Z).
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russian Disinformation: Pro-RU channels are attempting to frame the war as "90% resolved" with only the Donbas as a hurdle (Alex Parker Returns, 2145Z, 2202Z). This is likely a psychological operation (PSYOPS) intended to paint Ukrainian leadership as the sole obstacle to peace.
Strategic IO: The WSJ/US intel leak (2138Z) regarding the Kremlin strike serves to de-escalate "decapitation" narratives, providing Ukraine with diplomatic breathing room while it continues deep strikes on Russian infrastructure.
6. OUTLOOK (NEXT 6-12H)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Ballistic strikes from Crimea against Southern port or energy infrastructure within the next 2 hours, coinciding with the arrival of the 9-UAV wave in Kovel.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A coordinated ballistic and cruise missile volley targeting the energy grid in Western Ukraine (Lviv/Kovel) to maximize the impact of the UAV saturation and cause a multi-region blackout during the early hours of Jan 1.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Kovel Impact Assessment: Immediate confirmation of targets in Kovel (rail yard vs. fuel storage) to determine if this is an anti-logistics or anti-infrastructure campaign.
Ballistic Launch Verification: Confirm if the "Threat" from Crimea resulted in actual launches (Iskander-M or Oniks) and identify impact points.
Donbas Line of Contact: Ground-truth verification of the "330 settlements" claim—specifically focusing on recent movements near the Dnipropetrovsk border identified in the 1500Z Daily Report.
