MASSIVE UAF DEEP STRIKE ON RF REAR (HIGH): A large-scale Ukrainian UAV offensive is targeting at least 10 Russian regions, including Moscow, Tula, Saratov, and Tatarstan. Domodedovo Airport in Moscow is closed (Alex Parker Returns, 2112Z; STERNENKO, 2115Z; RBK-Ukraine, 2121Z).
ODESA UNDER MULTI-VECTOR UAV ATTACK (HIGH): Approximately 6 Shahed-type UAVs are currently engaging targets in Odesa; explosions have been confirmed by the Military Administration (Nikolaevskiy Vaniek, 2127Z; RBK-Ukraine, 2128Z).
UAV SATURATION IN NORTH/EAST/WEST (HIGH): New UAV ingress detected in Sumy (SW course), Kharkiv (Chuhuiv/Pechenihy), and Volyn (Kovel) (Air Force, 2121Z, 2130Z, 2132Z).
US INTEL ON KREMLIN STRIKE (MEDIUM): WSJ reports that NSA and CIA assessments conclude Ukraine did not target Putin’s residence in the Dec 29 incident (RBK-Ukraine, 2127Z; STERNENKO, 2129Z).
RF FRONTLINE KINETIC SIGNALING (MEDIUM): Pro-Russian channels are disseminating "frontline salutes"—likely coordinated artillery or MLRS volleys—framed as New Year celebrations (Dva Mayora, 2112Z).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational environment has shifted into a high-intensity, symmetric aerial exchange. While the Russian Federation (RF) continues its "New Year's Blitz" targeting Ukrainian infrastructure (Odesa, Kharkiv, Sumy), the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) have launched a significant counter-strike into the Russian heartland.
Battlefield Geometry: The conflict has expanded deeply into both rears. The RF is focused on Southern (Odesa) and Eastern (Kharkiv) urban hubs, while UAF strikes are prioritizing Moscow’s logistical/aviation hubs and industrial zones in the RF interior (up to Tatarstan and Orenburg).
Weather: No significant change; conditions remain favorable for low-altitude UAV transit.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (BY SECTOR)
Kyiv/Northern Sector: UAVs remain active in Chernihiv moving toward Nizhyn (Air Force, 2105Z). Moscow-based sources report "explosions in Kyiv" (Operation Z, 2111Z), likely continuing the pressure noted in the 2105Z sitrep.
Southern Sector (Odesa): Critical. A multi-vector approach (North and South/Tatarbunary) is being used to saturate Odesa's AD. At least 6 UAVs are confirmed in the immediate vicinity (Air Force, 2126Z, 2128Z; Nikolaevskiy Vaniek, 2127Z).
Eastern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy): UAV ingress from the North-East toward Chuhuiv suggests attempts to disrupt logistics behind the Kupiansk-Lyman line (Air Force, 2132Z).
Western Sector (Volyn): A rare UAV vector toward Kovel/Goloby indicates potential targeting of rail logistics near the Polish border (Air Force, 2130Z).
Russian Rear (Moscow/Interior): High disruption. Domodedovo Airport closure indicates a direct threat to the capital's aviation security. The geographic breadth of the UAF strike (Orenburg to Smolensk) suggests a highly coordinated "retaliation" mission.
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Capabilities & Intentions: RF is maintaining its Shahed pressure to exhaust UAF AD interceptors before a potential midnight missile volley. The use of "frontline salutes" (Dva Mayora, 2112Z) confirms that frontline artillery remains active despite the holiday.
Tactical Adaptation: RF sources (Alex Parker Returns, 2116Z) acknowledge being "outnumbered" in terms of current UAVs in the air, suggesting a temporary tactical surprise by UAF deep-strike assets.
Logistics: The previously identified surge at the 260th GRAU Arsenal (SAR Score 27.24) is likely the source of the munitions currently being expended in the Odesa and Kharkiv vectors.
4. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Strategic Offensive: UAF has seized the initiative in the information and cognitive domains by striking Moscow and closing its airports during the peak of the Russian New Year transition.
Tactical Aviation: Footage of Mi-8MTV operations (Tsaplienko, 2121Z) indicates that UAF rotary-wing assets remain active in support of frontline operations despite the heavy UAV activity.
Air Defense: Engagement is ongoing in Odesa and Kyiv. The clearance of the previous Kyiv alert (2059Z) suggests efficient recycling of AD teams.
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic IO: Both sides are flooded with New Year addresses (Razvozhayev, 2029Z). RF channels are attempting to project "triumph" with historical posters (Dva Mayora, 2113Z), while UAF-aligned channels emphasize the disruption in Moscow to puncture the RF "invulnerability" narrative.
De-escalation Narrative: The WSJ report (2127Z) regarding the Kremlin residence strike appears timed to signal to international partners that UAF is not seeking "decapitation" strikes, potentially maintaining the threshold for continued Western support.
6. OUTLOOK (NEXT 6-12H)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV saturation of Odesa and Kyiv through 2200Z (Ukrainian Midnight), followed by a wave of sea-launched Kalibr or air-launched Kh-101 missiles targeting energy infrastructure.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Synchronized ground assaults in the Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad sector (per Daily Report warnings) under the cover of the "celebratory" artillery fires, aiming for a physical breakthrough while command centers are managing the aerial threat.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Moscow BDA: Urgent need for ground-truth or SAR verification of impacts at Domodedovo or other Moscow-area targets to assess UAF strike effectiveness.
Odesa Damage Assessment: Confirm if the 2128Z explosions in Odesa hit port infrastructure or residential areas.
Volyn Vector: Identify the target in Kovel. Is this a strike on the Western supply grain/weapons corridor or a diversionary decoy?
