KYIV AIR DEFENSE ENGAGEMENT (HIGH): Air alerts were triggered in Kyiv (2041Z) following reports of "Geran" (Shahed) UAVs and active air defense (AD) engagement. Explosions were confirmed in the Kyiv suburbs (2049Z, RBK-Ukraine). Kyiv city alert cleared at 2059Z (KMVA, 2059Z).
DONETSK TACTICAL AVIATION SURGE (HIGH): Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) have initiated KAB (guided bomb) strikes across Donetsk Oblast as of 2058Z (Air Force, 2058Z).
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN UAV VECTORS (HIGH): UAVs detected in Chernihiv Oblast moving toward northern Kyiv Oblast (2050Z) and in southern Mykolaiv Oblast heading West (2053Z) (Air Force).
COORDINATED RF STRATEGIC IO (HIGH): A massive, multi-channel New Year’s Eve propaganda campaign was launched, featuring official addresses from Vladimir Putin, Sergey Sobyanin, and Ramzan Kadyrov (TASS, 2101Z; Kadyrov_95, 2055Z).
UNCONFIRMED TACTICAL REVERSE (LOW): Pro-Russian sources claim the defeat of units from the Ukrainian 35th Separate Marine Brigade (35 OBMP); no corroboration from UAF sources (Alex Parker Returns, 2040Z).
EXTERNAL THEATER NOISE (LOW): Reports circulating regarding potential Chinese military movements toward Taiwan; likely intended as a distraction or hybrid info-op within the Ukrainian info-space (Tsaplienko, 2050Z).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The battlefield geometry remains defined by a broad aerial offensive. The Russian Federation (RF) is synchronizing its kinetic strikes (UAVs and KABs) with the 2100Z (Moscow Time) transition to the New Year. The brief air alert in Kyiv indicates that while the capital's AD remains robust, "leakers" or decoys are reaching the suburban perimeter. Weather remains stable for UAV transit and tactical aviation (KAB) deployment in the East.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (BY SECTOR)
Kyiv/Northern Sector: A wave of UAVs transiting from Chernihiv (2050Z) toward Northern Kyiv indicates a persistent effort to saturate the capital’s defenses. The 2049Z explosions in the suburbs suggest targets may include power substations or AD sites outside the main city net.
Eastern Sector (Donbas): The launch of KABs (2058Z) signals high-intensity tactical aviation support, likely focused on the Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad axis or Kurakhove to exploit the "grim" defensive situation noted in the previous daily report.
Southern Sector: The Mykolaiv-to-West vector (2053Z) suggests an attempt to bypass Odesa’s primary AD screens by moving toward the Zatoka/Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi area or targeting logistics routes near the Moldovan border.
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Strategic Intent: RF is using the New Year holiday as a psychological anchor. The synchronization of Putin’s address (2101Z) with ongoing strikes (2058Z KABs) aims to project an image of "business as usual" dominance.
Leadership Status: The appearance of Ramzan Kadyrov in a video address (2055Z) looking stable and setting an agenda for 2026 serves to counter previous intelligence (Daily Report 1500Z) regarding his hospitalization and potential instability in Chechen units.
Tactical Adaptation: The move to launch KABs late in the evening suggests RF is confident in its night-weather flying capabilities and is looking to suppress UAF frontline positions while the rear is distracted by UAV alerts.
4. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Air Defense: UAF AD units in the Kyiv region demonstrated high readiness, clearing the city alert within 18 minutes (2041Z-2059Z), though suburban impacts (2049Z) indicate the outer ring is under heavy pressure.
Deep Strikes: Russian sources confirm the "New Year attack" (UAF drone wave) into Russian territory is ongoing (2047Z), suggesting UAF is maintaining its counter-battery pressure on RF launch sites in Bryansk/Kursk.
Force Posture: No official confirmation on the status of the 35 OBMP. If the RF claim (2040Z) is accurate, this represents a localized setback in the South/East that requires urgent ISR verification.
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Morale Operations: RF channels are flooded with "patriotic" content, including front-line meal photos (Rybar, 2045Z) and celebrity greetings to "heroes" (Colonelcassad, 2045Z).
Hybrid Distraction: The Taiwan invasion narrative (Tsaplienko, 2050Z) is likely a secondary effort to induce "strategic fatigue" or a sense of global instability among the Ukrainian public.
Sentiment: Ukrainian channels (CyberBoroshno, 2035Z) are attempting to maintain normalcy by encouraging community engagement (New Year table photos), countering the RF strike-and-propaganda cycle.
6. OUTLOOK (NEXT 6-12H)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Following the current UAV/KAB surge, a momentary "lull" during the Moscow New Year transition (2100Z-2200Z), followed by a massive, high-precision missile strike (Kalibr/Iskander) targeting Kyiv and Western Ukraine (Lviv/Rivne) near the Ukrainian midnight (2200Z-0000Z).
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A multi-regimental ground assault on the Myrnohrad-Dnipropetrovsk border, synchronized with a total blackout in Kyiv caused by a successful strike on the Hydroelectric Plant (Vyshhorod).
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
35 OBMP Status: Urgent requirement for SIGINT or visual confirmation of the 35th Marine Brigade’s status. Is this a total unit defeat or a localized skirmish? (Alex Parker claim, 2040Z).
Kyiv Suburb BDA: Identify specific infrastructure damaged in the 2049Z explosions. Priority: Energy vs. Military.
KAB Target Locations: Determine the specific villages/positions targeted in the 2058Z Donetsk launches to assess which section of the front is most at risk of an imminent breakthrough.
