MASSIVE UAF DEEP STRIKE (HIGH): RF MoD and local governors confirm a large-scale Ukrainian UAV offensive targeting multiple Russian regions. Over 53 UAVs were reportedly intercepted, with 40 specifically targeted at Bryansk Oblast (TASS, 2016Z; AV Bogomaz, 2023Z).
SHAHED SATURATION EXPANSION (HIGH): Shahed-type UAVs have expanded their ingress to the Western and Southern fronts. New vectors include Rivne Oblast (targeting Sarny/Dubrovytsia from the east), Mykolaiv Oblast (heading NW), and Odesa Oblast (from the Black Sea toward Zatoka) (Air Force, 2022Z, 2024Z, 2032Z).
KYIV PERIPHERY THREAT (HIGH): A UAV is currently tracking toward Vyshhorod from the northeast, indicating a direct threat to the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant or northern suburban infrastructure (Air Force, 2031Z).
TERRITORIAL LOSS METRICS (HIGH): DeepState reports that Russian forces occupied 445 sq km of Ukrainian territory in December, a 12% decrease in the rate of loss compared to November (DeepState, 2006Z).
STRATEGIC ATTRITION (MEDIUM): Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reports approximately 420,000 Russian personnel "neutralized" (KIA/WIA/MIA) during the 2025 calendar year (Operativno ZSU, 2011Z).
OCCUPIED INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKE (MEDIUM): RF-appointed officials in Zaporizhzhia confirm power outages following UAF strikes on energy infrastructure; repairs are reportedly complete (TASS/Balitsky, 2023Z).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational environment has transitioned into a high-intensity "New Year’s Eve" aerial duel. Ukraine has launched one of its largest coordinated drone strikes of the quarter against the Russian border and interior (primarily Bryansk), likely intended to suppress RF air defenses and disrupt launch sites. Simultaneously, Russia is conducting a multi-vector Shahed saturation campaign covering nearly all of Ukraine, from Odesa in the south to Rivne in the west. Weather conditions remain conducive to low-altitude UAV transit.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (BY SECTOR)
Northern/Kyiv Axis: The threat to the capital has escalated with a UAV vector specifically targeting Vyshhorod (2031Z). This follows earlier reports of drones over the Kyiv Reservoir, suggesting a deliberate focus on energy/hydroelectric infrastructure.
Western Axis: The detection of UAVs over Sarny/Dubrovytsia (Rivne Oblast) (2024Z) indicates a successful penetration of northern air defense screens, likely using the Belarusian border corridor or low-altitude terrain masking.
Southern Axis: A dual-vector threat is developing against Odesa (from the Black Sea) and Mykolaiv. This suggests RF is attempting to fix Southern Defense Forces while simultaneously pressuring the northern grain corridor infrastructure (2022Z, 2032Z).
Russian Rear (Bryansk/Kaluga): The Bryansk sector is the current focal point of UAF deep strikes. The concentration of 40 drones (2023Z) suggests a "saturation-to-kill" tactic against localized Russian AD or specific military-industrial targets.
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Aviation/UAVs: RF is utilizing a "rolling launch" strategy for Shaheds, spacing out ingress times and vectors to exhaust UAF Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) and AD ammunition ahead of a potential midnight (0000Z) missile volley.
Tactical Shift: The 12% reduction in monthly territorial gain (445 sq km in Dec vs Nov) suggests RF offensive momentum is encountering increased friction or that RF has shifted to a "consolidation-and-strike" phase to preserve personnel for 2026 operations.
Logistics: The quick restoration of power in occupied Zaporizhzhia indicates RF has staged emergency repair teams in anticipation of UAF holiday strikes on the energy grid.
4. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Counter-Offensive Deep Strikes: UAF has transitioned from reactive defense to proactive suppression. The large-scale drone wave into Bryansk is a clear attempt to force RF to pull AD assets back from the frontline to protect the interior.
Force Management: Syrskyi’s year-end summary emphasizes the high cost of Russian gains, framing 2025 as a year of "strategic attrition" where UAF traded space for significant enemy personnel losses (420k).
Governance: Strategic personnel changes (Semenyuk appointment) indicate ongoing efforts to stabilize the financial and regulatory environment despite the wartime footing (RBK-Ukraine, 2028Z).
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Propaganda Escalation: RF is increasingly utilizing "foreign voices" to disseminate anti-Western narratives, attempting to decouple Western public opinion from Ukrainian support (CPD, 2021Z).
Legal/Terror Narrative: Russian channels are amplifying an "admission" by SBU Head Malyuk regarding tanker strikes, attempting to frame UAF maritime operations as "terrorism" to international observers (Operation Z, 2024Z). (LOW CONFIDENCE/IO FRAMING).
6. OUTLOOK (NEXT 6-12H)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued Shahed arrivals through 2300Z, followed by a coordinated cruise/ballistic missile strike targeting Kyiv, Odesa, and Lviv energy nodes between 0000Z and 0300Z.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF uses the saturation in Rivne and Sumy to mask a specialized Spetsnaz or sabotage-reconnaissance (DRG) incursion across the northern border, aimed at creating panic in the rear during holiday festivities.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Bryansk BDA: Identify the primary targets of the 40-drone wave in Bryansk. Priority: Are these targeting S-400 batteries or logistics hubs?
Rivne Vector: Determine the launch point for the UAVs in Sarny. Is there evidence of transit through Belarusian airspace?
Vyshhorod Status: Monitor the specific altitude and behavior of the UAV heading toward Vyshhorod to assess if it is a "decoy" or a high-precision strike variant.
