STRATEGIC DEEP STRIKE (HIGH): Successful Ukrainian UAV attack on an oil depot in Lyudinovo, Kaluga Oblast (~250km from the border). Visual evidence confirms a major fire (Tsaplienko, 1937Z; Sternenko, 1948Z, High).
AERIAL ESCALATION (HIGH): New launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting Donetsk Oblast (1940Z) and Kharkiv Oblast (1941Z) (Air Force, High).
UAV VECTOR SHIFT (HIGH): New Shahed-type UAV detection over Sumy Oblast (heading toward Sumy city) and the Kyiv Reservoir (heading SW) (Air Force, 1939Z, 1946Z, High).
TACTICAL DISPOSITION CHANGE (MEDIUM): DeepState has updated the combat map (1959Z), indicating a shift in the Line of Contact (LOC), likely in the Pokrovsk or Kupyansk sectors (DeepState, Medium).
COUNTER-IO SUCCESS (HIGH): UAF official channels have publicly mocked Russian claims regarding the "re-liberation" of Kupyansk, suggesting Russian territorial claims in that sector are exaggerated or false (RBK-Ukraine, 2004Z, High).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
As of 2005Z, Ukraine is entering the final hours of the 2025 calendar year under a state of high aerial alert. The battlefield geometry remains fluid, characterized by Russian KAB strikes in the east and a multi-pronged UAV saturation effort in the north. The successful strike on the Kaluga oil depot demonstrates Ukraine’s continued ability to project power into the Russian rear despite the expected RF "New Year's Blitz." Weather continues to favor UAV operations and static artillery duels over heavy maneuver.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (BY SECTOR)
Northern/Central Axis: UAVs are currently active in two primary clusters: one approaching Sumy from the east and another transiting the Kyiv Reservoir toward the southwest. This suggests a coordinated attempt to pressure the capital's AD from multiple vectors simultaneously.
Eastern Axis (Kupyansk): UAF has moved to debunk Russian General-level claims of a breakthrough. This indicates the "cauldron" narrative reported earlier was likely a psychological operation or a failed tactical maneuver by RF elements.
Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Pokrovsk): The situation remains the most critical point of effort for the RF. Continuous KAB launches (1940Z) suggest a high-intensity preparation for ground assaults. The DeepState map update (1959Z) likely reflects Russian gains or UAF tactical withdrawals to secondary lines near Myrnohrad.
Southern Axis (Kherson/Zaporizhzhia): RF units continue drone-drop harassment (fatality confirmed in Kherson at 1936Z). Russian "Dva Mayora" channels are actively fundraising for the "Zaporizhzhia Front," suggesting that while active, RF units in this sector may be facing local equipment or sustainment shortages (Dva Mayora, 1950Z).
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Aviation: RF VKS (Aerospace Forces) is maximizing the use of KABs in the 1900Z-2000Z window. This is a standard precursor to night-time infantry "meat assaults" intended to seize ground before the 0000Z deadline.
Strategic Reserves: The "Last Frontier" training organization (Colonelcassad, 1945Z) and "Archangel Spetsnaz" (2003Z) are projecting high readiness. The emphasis on "newly trained" personnel suggests RF intends to feed fresh reserves into the Pokrovsk salient immediately.
Vulnerabilities: The Lyudinovo oil depot strike (Kaluga) highlights a persistent vulnerability in the RF's mid-range rear logistics. The disruption of fuel supplies in Kaluga may impact the logistics chain supporting the "Group North" elements inspected by Gerasimov.
4. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Deep Strike Ops: UAF GUR/SSO have successfully exploited gaps in Russian AD to strike energy infrastructure in Kaluga. This serves both a tactical (fuel disruption) and psychological (retaliation) purpose.
Defensive Posture: The General Staff 22:00 summary (2002Z) maintains a focus on resilience. UAF units (e.g., "Shadow" Unit) are leveraging festive themes for fundraising, maintaining high morale despite the ongoing aerial pressure.
Information Defense: Rapid debunking of the Kupyansk "liberation" narrative prevents localized panic and maintains the integrity of the information space.
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Holiday IO War: The Russian information space is saturated with VDV and Spetsnaz greetings designed to project an image of "victory-in-progress" (Two Majors, 1940Z; Archangel Spetsnaz, 2003Z).
The "Trump Pivot": Donald Trump’s reposting of the NYP article (labeled Putin as "obstacle to peace") continues to circulate heavily (ASTRA, 2002Z). This is creating a "wait-and-see" friction in Russian mil-blogger circles, as the expected "peace on Russian terms" under the new US administration is now being openly questioned.
6. OUTLOOK (NEXT 6-12H)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Expect a significant increase in Shahed and cruise missile activity between 2200Z and 0000Z, specifically targeting the Kyiv power grid and Western Ukraine energy nodes. The KAB strikes in the East will likely transition to a high-intensity ground assault on Myrnohrad.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF leverages the "New Year" distraction to launch a surprise cross-border incursion in Sumy or Kharkiv, coinciding with the UAVs currently over Sumy (1939Z).
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
DeepState Map Specifics: Analyze the 1959Z map update to identify the exact coordinates of the latest LOC shift. Priority: Pokrovsk and Kupyansk sectors.
Kaluga BDA: Request satellite or partisan confirmation of the extent of damage at the Lyudinovo oil depot.
Sumy Vector: Monitor if the UAVs over Sumy (1939Z) are precursors to a larger ballistic/artillery barrage against the city center.
