UAV VECTOR EXPANSION (HIGH): Shahed-type UAVs have transited Kyiv Oblast and are now heading toward Zhytomyr Oblast, specifically the Narodychi area (Air Force, 1923Z, High).
NORTHERN INGRESS (HIGH): New UAV detection entering Chernihiv Oblast from the east (Air Force, 1912Z, High).
DIPLOMATIC HARDENING (HIGH): Donald Trump’s social media activity—explicitly labeling Russia as the "obstacle to peace" and sharing articles justifying strikes on Russian leadership—has triggered significant alarm/vitriol in the Russian information space (Alex Parker, 1910Z; Tsaplienko, 1907Z, High).
KHERSON CIVILIAN CASUALTY (HIGH): A Russian drone strike in Kherson Oblast resulted in one civilian fatality today (ASTRA, 1927Z, High).
RF FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY (MEDIUM): Ukrainian intelligence reports identify a "financial trap" in the Russian economy, where non-performing loans (NPLs) and debt pressure may be reaching a systemic breaking point (RBK-Ukraine, 1913Z, Medium).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The battlefield geometry at 1935Z is dominated by an expanding Russian aerial assault aimed at the central and western regions of Ukraine. The redirection of UAVs toward Zhytomyr suggests an attempt to circumvent the dense Air Defense (AD) clusters around Kyiv or to target critical infrastructure nodes in the west-central corridor. Weather remains cold and overcast, facilitating thermal concealment for UAVs but restricting rapid ground movement.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (BY SECTOR)
Northern Axis (Chernihiv/Kyiv/Zhytomyr): A multi-vector UAV attack is underway. While Kyiv remains a primary target, the 1923Z update confirms a western shift toward Zhytomyr (Narodychi). This indicates a "leap-frogging" tactic to find gaps in the national AD grid.
Eastern Axis (Kupyansk): No new confirmation has emerged regarding the "cauldron" mentioned in the 1902Z report. The lack of corroboration from Ukrainian official channels or mainstream Russian mil-bloggers (e.g., Two Majors) suggests this remains UNCONFIRMED and potentially a localized panic or miscommunication within the RF 1st Guards Tank Army elements.
Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk): The "Hurricane" of artillery fire reported at 1902Z continues. This is likely the preparatory phase for a New Year's Eve midnight (0000Z) assault intended to capitalize on the "grim" situation in Myrnohrad noted in the daily report.
Southern Axis (Kherson): Russian forces continue localized terror tactics using FPV or drop-drones against civilian targets, resulting in a confirmed fatality in Kherson. This suggests RF units in the south are maintaining kinetic pressure despite the lack of major maneuver operations.
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Capabilities: The Russian 345th Airborne (VDV) Regiment and various motorized rifle units (342nd/others) are actively projecting a "festive" front through video greetings (Two Majors, 1915Z). However, underlying logistics (SAR score 27.24 at GRAU Arsenals) indicate they are fully prepared for a sustained, high-intensity munitions expenditure.
Psychological State: The Russian nationalist wing (e.g., Alex Parker, Strelkov) is showing signs of agitation. The "Parker" channel’s reaction to Trump’s signaling—calling him a "bulldozer of American politics"—suggests the RF information space was not prepared for a hardening US stance.
Economic Sustainment: The assessment of a Russian financial "trap" suggests that while the RF military is well-supplied for the current strike, the long-term domestic stability of the Russian Federation is under severe pressure from credit markets.
4. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Air Defense Operations: UAF AD units are successfully intercepting Shaheds, with the "Shahed-cutter" units being leveraged for both tactical defense and strategic fundraising (Sternenko, 1917Z).
Electronic Warfare (EW): The shift of UAVs toward Zhytomyr will likely require a redeployment of mobile EW assets to protect western rail and energy nodes.
Strategic Morale: Ukrainian official channels are maintaining a sober but resilient tone, contrasting the Russian "festive" propaganda with the reality of another year of struggle (Operativnyi ZSU, 1906Z).
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Narrative Shift: The primary development is the Trump Pivot. By reposting the NY Post article, Trump has effectively signaled to the Kremlin that "peace" will not be granted on Russian terms. This is significantly demoralizing for Russian actors who expected an immediate cessation of US aid.
Russian Counter-Ops: Expect a surge in Russian "festive" content and potential fake reports of Ukrainian losses at 0000Z to counter the negative diplomatic signaling from the US.
6. OUTLOOK (NEXT 6-12H)
MLCOA (Most Likely): The UAVs currently in Chernihiv and Zhytomyr will attempt to converge on energy infrastructure at 2200Z–0000Z. Concurrently, a massive missile volley (Kalibr/Iskander) is expected to coincide with the New Year transition to maximize psychological impact.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A coordinated ground breakthrough in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad sector under the cover of the "New Year's Hurricane" artillery surge, aimed at reaching the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border before dawn.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Pokrovsk Ground Truth: Urgent need for BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) in Myrnohrad to confirm if the defense line has physically broken or if the RF is merely in the outskirts.
UAV Launch Sites: Confirm if the new ingress into Chernihiv (1912Z) originated from a new launch site in Bryansk or Kursks to adjust AD vectors.
RF Economic Status: Monitor for any sudden liquidity measures by the Russian Central Bank that would validate the "financial trap" intelligence.
