UAV INGRESS TOWARD KYIV (HIGH): Shahed-type UAVs have transitioned from Chernihiv Oblast into Kyiv Oblast, maintaining a western heading (Air Force, 1842Z, 1858Z).
ZAPORIZHZHIA KINETIC STRIKE (HIGH): A renewed Russian strike on Zaporizhzhia city has impacted a multi-story residential building and caused vehicle fires; casualties are currently being assessed (Zaporizhzhia RMA, 1854Z).
POKROVSK ARTILLERY SURGE (MEDIUM): Russian forces have intensified artillery fires on the "Krasnoarmeysk" (Pokrovsk) front, characterized as a "New Year’s hurricane" intended to breach defensive lines (WarGonzo, 1902Z).
KUPYANSK TACTICAL REVERSAL (LOW): Reports indicate Russian assault elements in Kupyansk have been encircled ("in a cauldron") and allegedly abandoned by their command. This remains UNCONFIRMED and likely reflects internal Russian friction (Alex Parker Returns, 1902Z).
DIPLOMATIC SIGNALING (MEDIUM): In a significant shift, Donald Trump shared a headline asserting that Russia's actions are the primary obstacle to peace, a potential pivot in US-RF rhetoric ahead of the Jan 3 summit (RBK-Ukraine, 1853Z; STERNENKO, 1901Z).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational environment is characterized by a "Dual-Track" Russian strategy: maintaining a high-gloss propaganda veneer of "New Year's unity" while simultaneously escalating tactical pressure on the Pokrovsk axis and conducting terror strikes on civilian centers (Zaporizhzhia). Weather conditions remain a limiting factor for heavy maneuver, leading to a reliance on massed artillery and UAV saturation.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (BY SECTOR)
Northern Axis (Kyiv/Chernihiv): The UAV threat has matured. Multiple airframes are now transiting Kyiv Oblast with a western vector. Air defense systems (ADS) are likely engaged in "leaping" coverage to protect the capital's approaches.
Eastern Axis (Kupyansk):POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY. Reports of Russian "cauldrons" suggest a localized UAF counter-encirclement or a catastrophic failure in Russian tactical coordination. If confirmed, this indicates a significant breach in the Russian "Group North/West" cohesion.
Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk/Donetsk): High-intensity Russian artillery barrages are ongoing. The intent is to degrade UAF fortified positions before the 0000Z transition, likely to support a "New Year" symbolic breakthrough attempt.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia): The city remains a priority target for Russian standoff munitions. The latest strike confirms the continued threat despite the earlier lifting of alerts.
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Course of Action: The RF is flooding the information space with "Year-End Reviews" (127th Recon, 116th Rosgvardia) and commander greetings (Gen. Ivanaev, Vostok Group) to project stability. However, the reported encirclement in Kupyansk (1902Z) suggests these morale-boosting efforts are failing to mask severe tactical mismanagement in specific sectors.
Capabilities: Russian "Vostok" and "Dnipro" groups are increasingly relying on theater-level artillery to compensate for the lack of effective small-unit maneuver in winter conditions.
Logistics: While the North Caucasus Railway disruption (previous report) remains a factor, the surge in artillery on the Pokrovsk front suggests local ammunition stockpiles are being expended at a high rate.
4. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Defensive Operations: UAF Air Defense is focused on the Kyiv/West vector. Ground forces in Kupyansk appear to have successfully exploited Russian overextension to create a tactical pocket.
Strategic Communication: Pro-Ukrainian channels are effectively amplifying cracks in the Russian narrative, specifically the Trump peace-blockade signaling and the Kupyansk "cauldron."
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russian IO: Heavy emphasis on "festive" propaganda. Sources like Mash and Colonelcassad are using archival footage and celebrity greetings to drown out reports of frontline failures.
Western/US Signaling: The Witkoff consultative call and Trump’s social media activity suggest a hardening of the US position against Russian "at-the-gate" demands before the Jan 3 summit.
6. OUTLOOK (NEXT 6-12H)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV saturation of the Kyiv/Central corridor to force depletion of UAF interceptors. Simultaneous artillery-heavy assaults on the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad line to secure a "victory" before dawn.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): If the Kupyansk "cauldron" is confirmed, the RF may authorize "scorched earth" strikes on the pocket to prevent the surrender of assault units, potentially using thermobaric or cluster munitions in close proximity to the LOC.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Kupyansk Ground Truth: Immediate satellite or drone verification of the reported "cauldron" at Kupyansk is required to confirm the status of Russian assault troops (Alex Parker Returns, 1902Z).
Zaporizhzhia Munition Type: Identify if the strike (1854Z) was ballistic (Iskander) or S-300 to determine launch locations.
Kyiv UAV Tally: Accurate count of Shaheds entering Kyiv Oblast from the North to assess saturation levels.
