NORTHERN AIR THREAT (HIGH): A new wave of Shahed-type UAVs has entered the Chernihiv region from the north, transiting south toward the city of Chernihiv (Air Force, 1809Z, 1831Z).
STRATEGIC DEEP STRIKE CONFIRMED (HIGH): SBU "Alpha" special operations forces officially claimed the long-range drone strike on the "Temp" Rosrezerv oil depot in Rybinsk, Yaroslavl Oblast (~700km from the border) (ЦАПЛІЄНКО, 1810Z).
DIPLOMATIC MANEUVERING (MEDIUM): Reports indicate Steven Witkoff (US) is conducting peace process negotiations involving President Zelenskyy, Defense Minister Umierov, and advisors from three additional nations (RBK-Ukraine, 1819Z; Operation Z, 1825Z).
LOGISTICAL PARALYSIS (HIGH): Extreme weather and "schedule disruptions" continue to freeze the North Caucasus Railway, with 55 trains currently halted in Krasnodar Krai, impacting the primary GLOC for the Southern Group of Forces (Два майора, 1815Z).
HIGH-VALUE TARGET CLAIM (LOW): Russian sources claim the death of a high-profile target (Kapustin) via FPV drone; this remains UNCONFIRMED (Alex Parker Returns, 1823Z).
ZAPORIZHZHIA CLEARANCE (MEDIUM): Air raid alerts have been lifted for the Zaporizhzhia region following the passage of the initial UAV wave (Zaporizhzhia RMA, 1832Z).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational environment has shifted into a high-intensity "New Year's Eve" aero-ballistic phase. While tactical ground movement appears slowed by weather in the south, the air domain is saturated. Ukraine has successfully demonstrated deep-strike reach into Yaroslavl, targeting fuel reserves, while Russia is expanding its UAV ingress routes to include a northern vector through Chernihiv. Diplomatic activity is surging in parallel with kinetic operations, suggesting a high-stakes signaling period ahead of the Jan 3 summit.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (BY SECTOR)
Northern Axis (Chernihiv/Sumy):NEW THREAT. Shahed UAVs are currently over Chernihiv district with a southern heading. This indicates an expansion of the strike envelope previously focused on the East and South.
Eastern Axis (Donbas):
Seversk: Russian sources are leveraging "year-end" retrospective footage to claim progress/capture of Seversk to bolster domestic morale (Colonelcassad, 1815Z).
Donetsk/Pokrovsk: High-tempo drone operations continue; Russian Unmanned Systems Forces are actively circulating footage of strikes on UAF hardware (MoD Russia, 1803Z).
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson): The immediate UAV threat to Zaporizhzhia city has subsided (1832Z), but Russian units in Kherson are documented reinforcing defensive positions (TASS, 1815Z).
Russian Rear: The Rybinsk oil depot strike (Yaroslavl) represents a significant breach of RF rear-area security, likely forcing a redistribution of Russian AD assets away from the front to protect strategic reserves.
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Course of Action: The RF is maintaining a high volume of morale-centric propaganda (New Year greetings from 9th GMRB, "Samarkand" brigade) to mask logistical failures. The North Caucasus Railway disruption (1815Z) is a critical vulnerability; if the freeze persists, Russian frontline units in the South will face acute ammunition and fuel shortages within 48-72 hours.
Psychological State: Increased reporting of "self-shootings" (suicides) among Russian personnel is being highlighted by UAF information channels (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 1831Z), indicating high levels of combat fatigue and psychological distress despite official "festive" messaging.
4. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Morale & Command: Senior leadership (Gen. Naiev, 47th Mech Brigade, Southern Defense Forces) has launched a synchronized strategic communication campaign to maintain troop cohesion and civilian resilience (1813Z, 1814Z, 1830Z).
Deep Operations: The SBU "Alpha" group remains the primary effort for long-range interdiction, successfully hitting the Yaroslavl energy node.
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Conflict Narratives: Russian IO is focused on "Pobeda" (Victory) retrospectives, while Ukrainian IO is highlighting Russian internal fragility (suicides) and deep-strike success.
Diplomatic Signaling: The mention of "productive consultations" by Russian-linked channels (Operation Z, 1825Z) suggests the RF is monitoring Western peace initiatives closely, likely preparing a kinetic "counter-offer" via tonight's expected strike.
6. OUTLOOK (NEXT 6-12H)
MLCOA (Most Likely): The Chernihiv UAV wave will likely converge with the remnants of the southern wave toward Kyiv or central energy nodes between 2000Z and 2200Z. A secondary wave of cruise missiles remains highly probable.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF utilizes the rail disruption as a pretext for "desperation strikes" using high-velocity ballistic assets (Iskander-M/K) against Ukrainian command centers to force a pause in the UAF deep-strike campaign.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Chernihiv UAV Count: Determine the specific number of airframes in the northern wave to assess if this is a "decoy" or a "saturation" effort.
Yaroslavl Damage Assessment: Require BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the Rybinsk oil depot to determine the extent of fuel loss for the Russian Northern Group.
Diplomatic Framework: Verify the "three nations" mentioned in the Witkoff/Zelenskyy talks to identify potential shift in European security architecture.
