GSOU CONFIRMED DEEP STRIKES (HIGH): The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (GSOU) officially confirmed a coordinated series of deep strikes against "key objects of the Russian energy rear" conducted tonight (ЦАПЛІЄНКО, 1716Z).
ZAPORIZHZHIA SECTOR ESCALATION (HIGH): Russian forces have intensified offensive operations specifically targeting the settlement of Bilohir'ya, conducting active storming maneuvers (✙DeepState✙, 1707Z).
AERIAL THREATS TO KHARKIV/DNIPRO (HIGH): UAF Air Force reports Shahed-type UAVs moving toward Zolochiv (Kharkiv region) on a SE course and toward Dnipro from the SW (Air Force, 1716Z, 1728Z).
SUBSEA CABLE INVESTIGATION (HIGH): Finnish authorities have detained a vessel in connection with the damage to the Helsinki-Tallinn underwater cable, transitioning the hybrid incident into a legal/security enforcement phase (STERNENKO, 1726Z).
DIPLOMATIC FRICTION (MEDIUM): Ukraine’s MFA summoned diplomats from India and Pakistan following their perceived support of the Russian "assassination attempt" narrative involving Putin’s residence (РБК-Україна, 1713Z).
RF DOMESTIC INFRASTRUCTURE FAILURE (MEDIUM): A localized power outage has been reported in St. Petersburg, following similar disruptions in the Moscow region, indicating widening grid instability or successful UAF sabotage (ASTRA, 1713Z).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The tactical environment is shifting from "shaping operations" to active kinetic engagement in the aero-ballistic and southern ground sectors. The GSOU's confirmation of strikes on the RF energy rear validates the high SAR logistics scores (27.24) noted in the previous 24h cycle; Ukraine is preemptively targeting the infrastructure that supports RF strike capabilities. Weather remains a factor, but the RF has pivoted to localized "high-intensity storming" in Zaporizhzhia (Bilohir'ya) to exploit any holiday-related shifts in UAF readiness.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (BY SECTOR)
Northern Axis (Kharkiv): Ingress of UAVs near Zolochiv (1716Z) suggests a multi-vector approach to probe air defenses northwest of Kharkiv city.
Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Pokrovsk):
Donetsk: UAF FPV units (IFG group) successfully destroyed RF military logistics vehicles in a "long-range raid" near Donetsk (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 1706Z).
Myrnohrad: Pro-Russian sources released aerial footage of the city (1733Z). While intended as propaganda, the footage confirms the city remains a high-intensity combat zone with significant structural damage, though physical control of the center remains a point of friction.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia): The focus has sharpened on Bilohir'ya. The "active storming" reported by DeepState (1707Z) suggests the RF is attempting to widen the breach in the Zaporizhzhia line, likely to fix UAF reserves and prevent their redeployment to the Pokrovsk sector.
Rear Areas: UAV threats are developing toward Dnipro (1728Z). Preemptive blackout schedules remain the primary defensive posture for the domestic grid.
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Tactical Adaptation: RF forces are utilizing annual "New Year" narratives to fuel aggressive Information Operations (IO). Staged videos of "fallen soldiers" (1705Z) and captured personnel (1717Z) are being circulated via Colonelcassad to degrade UAF morale.
Course of Action: The Kotsnews "retaliation" poll (1734Z) indicates the Kremlin is conditioning its domestic audience for a "massive response" tonight, using the alleged drone attack on the Valdai residence as the casus belli.
Internal Vulnerability: The St. Petersburg blackout (1713Z) suggests that despite RF internal security crackdowns, the Russian energy grid is struggling to compensate for either UAF deep strikes or seasonal load surges.
4. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Deep Strike Efficacy: The GSOU's rare immediate confirmation of strikes on the "energy rear" indicates high confidence in the BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) and is likely intended to bolster domestic morale before the expected RF retaliation.
Tactical ISR: Ukrainian drone units continue to demonstrate high proficiency in deep-penetration FPV raids (Butusov, 1706Z), successfully interdicting RF tactical logistics.
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Hybrid/Diplomatic: Russia has successfully leveraged its "victim" narrative to cause diplomatic friction between Ukraine and Global South partners (India/Pakistan).
Disinformation: Staged "interviews" with captured UAF soldiers claiming they have been "without supplies for 2 months" (1717Z) are a high-priority RF IO effort to simulate a collapse of Ukrainian frontline logistics.
6. OUTLOOK (NEXT 6-12H)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Arrival of Shahed/UAV waves currently over Kharkiv and Dnipro, followed by a transition to Kalibr/Iskander strikes targeting the Ukrainian energy hubs mentioned in the Ukrenergo blackout warning.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A mechanized breakthrough attempt at Bilohir'ya (Zaporizhzhia) synchronized with the peak of the aerial bombardment to disrupt UAF C2 (Command and Control) during the holiday transition.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Bilohir'ya Status: Immediate need for confirmation on whether RF storming groups have established a foothold within the settlement limits.
St. Petersburg Blackout Cause: Determine if the outage was caused by a kinetic strike (UAV), cyber operation, or internal technical failure.
Vessel Identification: Identify the specific vessel detained by Finland to determine if it has direct links to RF state-affiliated "ghost fleets" or maritime intelligence units.
