NATIONWIDE BLACKOUT SCHEDULES (HIGH): Ukrenergo has announced that power outage schedules will be active across all of Ukraine tomorrow, Jan 1, indicating systemic grid fragility or preemptive load management ahead of expected RF strikes (РБК-Україна, 1655Z).
UAF DEEP STRIKE OPERATIONS (MEDIUM): A "drone danger" alert was declared in Russia's Bryansk Oblast, with local authorities instructing residents to seek shelter, confirming ongoing UAF harassment of RF border regions (AV БогомаZ, 1640Z).
PUTIN RESIDENCE ATTACK NARRATIVE (MEDIUM): RF state media and affiliated mil-bloggers have released images of a captured UAF drone allegedly carrying a 6kg high-explosive charge and shrapnel elements intended for Putin’s residence. Venezuela has officially condemned the "attack," signaling an RF diplomatic push to frame UAF operations as "terrorism" (ТАСС, 1647Z; Старше Эдды, 1649Z).
INTERNAL RF SECURITY CRACKDOWN (MEDIUM): Russian security services detained a woman in St. Petersburg for alleged involvement in a "terrorist organization," highlighting a heightened state of internal security and zero-tolerance for domestic dissent during the holiday period (Colonelcassad, 1647Z; Alex Parker Returns, 1658Z).
SOLAR EVENT ADVISORY (LOW): An M7.1 class solar flare was detected. While not critical, this may cause localized disruptions to high-frequency (HF) radio communications and GPS accuracy during the next 6-12 hours (ТАСС, 1658Z).
UAF MARITIME PERSONNEL RECOVERY (HIGH): Ukrainian sailors previously held by pirates in Senegal have been released, representing a successful non-kinetic/diplomatic outcome (РБК-Україна, 1639Z).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently characterized by a "calm before the storm" posture. While ground movement remains localized (Radkivka/Kupyansk and Myrnohrad), the primary theater has shifted to the aero-ballistic and cognitive domains. Ukraine is bracing for a significant saturation strike, confirmed by Ukrenergo’s preemptive blackout schedules. Russia is aggressively constructing a "victim" narrative regarding alleged drone attacks on its leadership to provide a moral and diplomatic pretext for the expected New Year's Eve escalation.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (BY SECTOR)
Northern Axis (Bryansk/Sumy): Active UAF UAV activity in Bryansk indicates a continued "active defense" strategy, likely intended to fix RF air defense assets in the border regions and away from the interior. Probing actions north of Hrabovske (Sumy) reported in the previous window likely continue but without significant territorial change.
Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad): Situation remains critical ("grim"). RF "Group O" elements are likely consolidating positions in the Myrnohrad outskirts. No new tactical updates in this 30-minute window, suggesting high-intensity urban friction or a temporary pause for reorganization.
Rear Areas: Preemptive power stabilization measures are in effect. The UAF "BLACK SKY" and Air Assault (DShV) units are maintaining high visibility to bolster domestic morale (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1654Z; Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, 1704Z).
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Strategic Intent: The RF is leveraging the "assassination attempt" narrative (Starshiy Eddy, 1649Z) to justify the MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action)—a massive, multi-wave strike tonight.
Logistics & Sustainment: RF paratrooper (VDV) units continue to rely on civilian logistics channels ("Ozon" deliveries) for supplementary equipment, suggesting that while the "260th GRAU Arsenal" is pushing heavy munitions, small-scale sustainment remains decentralized and civilian-augmented (Дневник Десантника, 1637Z).
Internal Security: The St. Petersburg arrest indicates the Kremlin is concerned about domestic "Fifth Column" activity or sabotage synchronized with UAF holiday strikes.
4. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Power Grid Management: The decision to implement nationwide outages for Jan 1 (Ukrenergo, 1655Z) is a tactical necessity to protect the energy infrastructure from potential surge damage during kinetic strikes.
Morale Maintenance: Top-tier command units (DShV) are actively engaging in the information space to counter the "grim" narratives from the Pokrovsk sector.
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Terrorism Framing: Russia is successfully pulling international partners (Venezuela) into its narrative of "Ukrainian terrorism." This is intended to complicate Western support by framing UAF deep strikes as escalatory and non-military.
Space Weather: The M7.1 solar flare (Confidence: HIGH) should be monitored by SIGINT units. It may provide a temporary "window" of degraded RF communication effectiveness if solar activity increases to X-class.
6. OUTLOOK (NEXT 6-12H)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Arrival of the previously detected "Shahed" waves (1620Z-1626Z sitrep) over target areas, followed by a second wave of cruise missiles between 2100Z and 0100Z. Targets: Kyiv, Dnipro, and Western energy hubs.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A major ground assault on the Pokrovsk-Dnipropetrovsk administrative border, utilizing the cover of the mass aerial strike to bypass UAF tactical awareness.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Bryansk UAV Impact: Confirm if UAF drones in Bryansk targeted the S-300/400 batteries or logistical hubs.
Solar Interference: Assessment required from EW/SIGINT units on whether the M7.1 flare is impacting RF "Orlan" or "Zala" drone control links.
Myrnohrad LoC: Immediate need for fresh imagery or ground-truth reports to confirm if RF forces have established a permanent foothold in Myrnohrad's central district.
