KUPYANSK COUNTER-OFFENSIVE SUCCESS (HIGH): Ukrainian forces (13th Brigade "Khartia") have successfully broken the Russian "kill zone" and liberated the village of Radkivka, north of Kupyansk. This confirms previous reports of Russian command failure in the sector (Butusov Plus, 1621Z).
NORTHERN BORDER PROBING (MEDIUM): Russian forces are actively attempting to breach the border north of Hrabovske (Sumy region). UAF describes these as "probing actions" involving military engineering (RBK-Ukraine, 1615Z).
MULTI-VECTOR UAV INGRESS (HIGH): New "Shahed" drone threats detected heading toward Kharkiv (1620Z), Dnipro from the south (1624Z), and across northern Poltava heading south (1626Z) (Air Force ZSU).
FIBER-OPTIC DRONE DEPLOYMENT (MEDIUM): UAF unit "PERUN Industries" successfully utilized fiber-optic-guided FPV drones to destroy Russian equipment in hardened shelters in the Sumy region (Sternenko, 1628Z).
ENVIRONMENTAL LOGISTICS DELAY (HIGH): Severe snowfall in Adygea/Maykop has necessitated the deployment of heavy equipment for clearing operations, likely slowing Russian ground logistics in the Southern Military District (TASS, 1627Z).
DIPLOMATIC HYBRID SIGNAL (LOW - UNCONFIRMED): Reports circulating in Russian media suggest France and Britain are prepared to monitor a ceasefire in Ukraine without an official UN/EU mandate (Operation Z/Die Welt, 1635Z).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield geometry is currently defined by a high-intensity aerial saturation campaign and localized tactical shifts in the north. While Russia continues to probe the Sumy border and maintain pressure in the east, the ZSU has achieved a significant tactical victory near Kupyansk, reversing recent RF gains. Atmospheric conditions are deteriorating in the south (Adygea), which may impact the tempo of RF logistics moving toward the Zaporizhzhia and Crimean fronts.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (BY SECTOR)
Northern Axis (Sumy/Kharkiv): The sector is experiencing increased friction. RF probing near Hrabovske suggests an intent to find gaps in the border defense. ZSU is effectively countering with advanced EW-resistant (fiber-optic) drones. Kharkiv remains a primary target for UAV saturation (1620Z).
Eastern Axis (Kupyansk/Donbas):
Kupyansk: The liberation of Radkivka is a major development. It suggests that the reported "encirclement" of RF units in previous reports has resulted in a localized collapse of the RF line in the northern Kupyansk outskirts.
Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad: No new facts reported in this window. The situation remains "grim" (as per 1500Z report), with RF forces likely consolidating positions in the Myrnohrad outskirts.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Continued RF armored activity. The "Maestro" tank group is confirmed operational in the sector (Dva Mayora, 1624Z; Belief Score: 0.28).
Rear Areas (Poltava/Dnipro): The expansion of UAV vectors into Poltava suggests an attempt to bypass established AD corridors to hit Dnipro or central energy infrastructure.
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Tactical Adaptation: RF "Sever" (North) grouping is heavily utilizing FPV drones to conduct attrition strikes against ZSU positions (Colonelcassad, 1617Z). However, the loss of Radkivka indicates a significant vulnerability in RF infantry-armor coordination when faced with aggressive ZSU counter-attacks.
Logistics & Sustainment: Heavy snow in the Adygea Republic (Maykop) will likely bottleneck the transit of supplies from the Russian interior toward the southern frontline for the next 12-24 hours.
Command & Control: The use of deceptive New Year greetings to mask aggressive tactical videos (Dva Mayora, 1620Z) indicates a continued focus on psychological operations at the tactical level.
4. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Counter-Attack Capability: The 13th Brigade's success in Kupyansk demonstrates that ZSU retains the capability for high-intensity, localized offensive actions despite the broader defensive posture.
Technology Edge: The successful use of fiber-optic drones in Sumy provides a critical workaround for Russian EW saturation, allowing for precision strikes on high-value assets in shelters.
Morale & Command: General Syrskyi’s New Year address (1632Z) emphasizes the transition to 2026 with a focus on resilience, likely intended to stabilize domestic sentiment ahead of expected tonight's strikes.
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Ceasefire Narratives: The claim regarding French/British ceasefire monitoring is likely an RF information operation aimed at projecting a narrative of Western "fatigue" or a willingness to bypass international institutions.
Counter-Disinformation: The Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation (CPD) has moved rapidly to debunk Russian claims of a drone attack on Putin’s residence, labeling the "debris" evidence as fabricated (1625Z).
Domestic RF Stability: State media (TASS) is prioritizing reports on domestic food security (red caviar supply) to project a sense of normalcy and resilience to the Russian public despite the ongoing conflict.
6. OUTLOOK (NEXT 6-12H)
MLCOA (Most Likely): A massed, multi-domain strike involving 60-100+ "Shahed" UAVs followed by cruise missiles (Kalibr/Kh-101) targeting the Kyiv-Dnipro-Odesa energy triangle, timed for the New Year transition (1800Z-0200Z).
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A combined-arms breakthrough attempt north of Hrabovske (Sumy) supported by the "Group North" inspection previously noted, intended to force ZSU to divert reserves from the Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad sector.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Status of Radkivka/Kupyansk: Need to confirm if ZSU has established a sustainable defensive line in Radkivka or if it is a "gray zone" situation post-assault.
Hrabovske Vector: Identify the size and composition of RF forces "probing" the border. Is this a diversion or a precursor to a larger brigade-sized incursion?
Adygea Logistics: Monitor rail and road throughput from Maykop. Determine if the snowfall has halted the movement of ammunition toward the Crimea bridge or Zaporizhzhia.
