STRATEGIC DEEP STRIKE CAMPAIGN (HIGH): UAF General Staff and SSO confirmed coordinated strikes against the Tuapse Refinery, "Tamanneftegaz" terminal, a Rosrezerv oil depot, ammunition depots in occupied Donetsk, and a riverboat station in Olenivka, Crimea (GenStaff ZSU, 1543Z; SSO, 1601Z).
KUPIANSK COMMAND FAILURE (LOW - UNCONFIRMED): Russian sources (Romanov via Butusov) report Russian units are "fully surrounded" in the Kupiansk sector, with commanders allegedly abandoning radio networks (Butusov Plus, 1536Z).
SUMY/DNIPRO UAV THREAT (HIGH): New UAV ingress detected heading toward Sumy from the north and toward Dnipro from the south (Air Force ZSU, 1542Z, 1544Z).
ENERGY GOVERNANCE REFORM (HIGH): Ukraine has approved independent members for the new "Energoatom" supervisory board, a key move for strategic infrastructure resilience (RBK-Ukraine, 1539Z).
VDV COMMAND STANCE (MEDIUM): VDV Commander Mikhail Teplinsky issued a holiday address emphasizing the "protection of Great Russia," signaling a continued commitment to high-intensity offensive operations (Dnevnik Desantnika, 1545Z).
INTERNAL RF FRICTION (MEDIUM): Anti-war sentiment surfacing in mobilization-focused channels, highlighting the psychological toll of "four years in the trenches" (Mobilization News, 1536Z).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is shifting from localized ground skirmishes to a dual-track strategic exchange. Ukraine has launched a sophisticated, multi-axis deep strike campaign targeting Russian fuel logistics and ammunition storage (Taman, Tuapse, Donetsk). Simultaneously, Russia is maintaining a steady cadence of "Shahed" UAV ingress to saturate Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) ahead of a projected massed missile volley. Weather remains a factor, with snow and freezing temperatures (0°C to -5°C) complicating ground maneuvers but favoring static thermal ISR.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (BY SECTOR)
Northern Axis (Sumy/Kharkiv): New UAV threats toward Sumy (1542Z) indicate a continued focus on the northern border. Local administrative greetings (Syniehubov, 1539Z) emphasize a state of "active defense."
Eastern Axis (Kupiansk/Donbas):
Kupiansk: Reports of a tactical pocket forming around RF units are emerging. If commanders are indeed "off-air" (Butusov Plus, 1536Z), a localized collapse of the RF line in this sector is possible.
Donetsk: Successful UAF strikes on ammunition depots (GenStaff ZSU, 1543Z) will likely induce a 24-48 hour lull in RF artillery intensity in this sector as they reorganize logistics.
Southern Axis (Crimea/Krasnodar):
UAF SSO "Deep Strike" units successfully hit maritime and energy logistics at Tamanneftegaz and Olenivka. This degrades the Black Sea Fleet's local sustainment and riverine capabilities.
Dnipropetrovsk: A new UAV vector from the south toward Dnipro (1544Z) suggests the enemy is attempting to bypass AD nodes by utilizing the Dnipro River corridor.
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Logistics Degradation: The loss of throughput at Tamanneftegaz and Tuapse directly impacts the fuel supply for the Southern Group of Forces. This is a critical blow to RF's ability to maintain high-mobility operations in the 24-48h window.
Command and Control (C2): Emerging reports of C2 breakdown in Kupiansk (1536Z) contrast with the polished holiday rhetoric of VDV Commander Teplinsky. This suggests a growing gap between high-level military leadership and tactical-level reality.
External Factors: Reports of unrest in Iran (Archangel Spetsnaz, 1603Z) are being monitored for potential impacts on the Shahed-136/131 supply chain. Any disruption in Iranian logistics could affect the frequency of saturation strikes (Belief Score: 0.21).
4. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)
Strategic Reach: UAF has demonstrated a synchronized ability to strike targets over 500km apart (Crimea to Krasnodar Krai) in a single night window.
Institutional Stability: The appointment of the Energoatom board and judicial proceedings against MP Pyvovarov for bribery (1553Z) indicate that even under high kinetic pressure, the Ukrainian state is prioritizing anti-corruption and governance reforms.
Morale: High, bolstered by successful long-range strikes and internal "spoiling" attacks by FPV units (e.g., "Kaira" unit activity).
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Divergent Narratives: Russian milbloggers are split. While "Rybar" and "WarGonzo" focus on morale-boosting festive content, "Romanov" is highlighting operational failures. This indicates a fragmentation in the Russian information space.
Disinformation Alert: Pro-Russian channels (Operation Z, 1553Z) are weaponizing statements by MP Mariana Bezuhla to project a narrative of "forced militarization" and "cancelled elections" to demoralize the Ukrainian public.
6. OUTLOOK (NEXT 6-12H)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV saturation targeting Dnipro and Kyiv to deplete AD interceptors. At approximately 1800Z-2200Z, a high-probability cruise/ballistic missile strike targeting the energy grid and transport hubs.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): If the Kupiansk pocket reports are confirmed, the enemy may launch a desperate, uncoordinated mass-infantry assault in a different sector (e.g., Pokrovsk) to force a UAF diversion and mask the tactical failure.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Kupiansk BDA/LOC: Urgent requirement for SIGINT/IMINT to verify the extent of the reported RF encirclement and identify if Russian C2 has truly collapsed.
Taman/Tuapse Damage Assessment: Monitor SAR imagery for the extent of damage at Tamanneftegaz. If the terminal is inoperable, predict a shift in RF naval logistics toward Novorossiysk.
Iran Unrest Impact: Evaluate the stability of Iranian manufacturing hubs (Isfahan/Shahed production) in light of reported civil unrest.
