KYIV UAV INGRESS (HIGH): Multiple UAVs detected crossing from Chernihiv into Kyiv region, specifically toward Zgurivka (Air Force ZSU, 1506Z).
ODESA/MAYAKY THREAT (HIGH): UAVs detected heading toward Mayaky, Odesa region, following the earlier Chornomorsk ingress (Air Force ZSU, 1509Z).
KADYROV HEALTH CRISIS (MEDIUM): Reports indicate Ramzan Kadyrov was "barely revived" in Moscow following an emergency hospitalization; this significantly impacts the stability of "Akhmat" units (RBK-Ukraine, 1518Z).
HULIAIPOLE KINETIC CLASH (LOW - UNCONFIRMED): Russian sources claim to have repelled a Ukrainian armored probe (1x T-64, 2x "Kozak" BBVs) near Huliaipole (Colonelcassad, 1515Z).
NORTHERN BORDER ADVANCES (LOW - UNCONFIRMED): Russian forces claim localized tactical gains in the Burluk direction near the Belgorod border to establish a "buffer zone" (Rybar, 1510Z).
UAF INSTITUTIONAL SHIFT (HIGH): President Zelenskyy has dismissed Ruslan Mahomedov from his post as Chairman of the National Commission on Securities and Stock Market (RBK-Ukraine, 1508Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kyiv/Chernihiv): The threat vector has expanded. Following earlier harassment, the ingress toward Zgurivka (1506Z) suggests the enemy is probing the northeastern approaches to the capital to identify gaps in the AD umbrella.
Eastern Axis (Kharkiv/Burluk): Russian units (specifically linked to the "buffer zone" narrative) are attempting localized pushes. While likely distracting in nature, they require monitoring for force concentration.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Odesa):
Zaporizhzhia: Kinetic activity reported near Huliaipole; while the Russian claim of a repelled probe is unconfirmed, it indicates UAF "active defense" measures are ongoing.
Odesa: The ingress toward Mayaky (1509Z) confirms a multi-pronged UAV effort to saturate southern port and transit infrastructure.
Lipetsk (RF Rear): Local UAV alerts were canceled at 1517Z (Igor Artamonov), suggesting the conclusion of a UAF long-range ISR or strike sortie in that sector.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
UAV Saturation Tactics: The enemy is maintaining a steady cadence of "Shahed" launches from multiple vectors (Chernihiv, Odesa, and previously Dnipropetrovsk). This remains the primary tactic to exhaust AD interceptors before an anticipated heavy missile volley (1800Z-0200Z).
VDV/Spetsnaz Morale: Significant propaganda output from VDV and "Archangel Spetsnaz" (1509Z, 1526Z) suggests these units are being prepared for high-intensity operations, likely capitalized on during the New Year transition.
Hybrid/Diplomatic Sabotage: PM Viktor Orban’s claims regarding a 2026 US-Russia peace deal (1506Z) serve as a high-level disinformation effort designed to create friction between Ukraine, the EU, and the US ahead of the Jan 3 summit.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Active Defense: UAF units (81st Airmobile, 1st Assault Battalion) remain engaged in spoiling attacks and defensive positioning in the Zaporizhzhia and Donbas sectors (1515Z, 1521Z).
Strategic Resilience: President Zelenskyy’s New Year address (1507Z) and official appearances emphasize civil-military unity.
Humanitarian Ops: "UNITERS" (Poland) and Southern Defense Forces conducted high-visibility frontline aid distributions (1515Z), supporting civil morale in high-risk zones.
Information environment / disinformation
"Flag Bombardment" Narrative: Russian milbloggers (Kotsnews, 1512Z) are attempting to minimize UAF psychological operations involving the delivery of flags to occupied/contested areas, labeling them "provocations."
Cultural Contestation: Russian media is actively weaponizing Ukrainian internal debates regarding Soviet-era traditions (e.g., Olivier salad) to portray UAF leadership as culturally radicalized (1533Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued UAV saturation of Kyiv and Odesa regions until 1800Z, followed by a massed missile strike targeting the national power grid and decision-making centers during the peak holiday window.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Utilizing the potential "Akhmat" command paralysis (due to Kadyrov’s health status), Russian "Group O" forces may launch an opportunistic breakthrough attempt toward the Dnipropetrovsk border, assuming UAF focus is split between AD response and holiday rotation.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Kadyrov Health Verification: Urgent requirement for SIGINT or HUMINT regarding the status of the Chechen command structure. If Kadyrov is incapacitated, monitor for "Akhmat" unit desertion or withdrawal.
Myrnohrad LOC: (REPEATED) No new updates on the physical Line of Contact in Myrnohrad. Ground-level ISR remains a priority to confirm if the city center is contested or lost.
Burluk Sector Strength: Assess the size of the Russian force attempting the "buffer zone" push in the Kharkiv/Belgorod border region to determine if this is a diversion or a legitimate new axis of advance.
