STRATEGIC DEEP STRIKES (HIGH): Ukrainian Security and Defense Forces (SOU) successfully targeted the "Temp" plant in Yaroslavl Oblast and port infrastructure in Tuapse on the night of Dec 30-31 (CyberBoroshno 1425Z, ASTRA 1428Z, 1432Z).
EXPANDED UAV INGRESS (HIGH): Multiple Shahed groups are currently active over Chernihiv (Nizhyn district), Sumy (Romny district), and Odesa (Teplodar, Tatarbunary, Rozdilna), with a new vector heading toward Hadiach, Poltava Oblast (Air Force ZSU 1410Z-1433Z).
ZAPORIZHZHIA SECTOR ENGAGEMENT (MEDIUM): UAF Southern Defense Forces successfully liquidated Russian assault groups and equipment in the Hulyaipole direction (Butusov Plus 1406Z). Conversely, RF sources claim 16,500 subscribers are without power in the region due to UAF strikes (TASS 1419Z).
AERIAL BOMBARDMENT (HIGH): Repeated Russian KAB (guided aerial bomb) launches confirmed targeting the Donetsk sector as of 1434Z (Air Force ZSU).
REAR AREA DISRUPTION (MEDIUM): Over 100 flights are delayed at Moscow airports amid New Year "operational chaos," potentially linked to heightened air defense alerts or technical failures (Moscow News 1407Z).
UNCONFIRMED AID DISRUPTION (LOW): Pro-Russian sources claim the US Secretary of Defense has "secretly blocked" artillery shell shipments to Ukraine, citing an alleged NYT report (Operatsiya Z 1411Z). This remains UNCONFIRMED and is assessed as likely disinformation.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield is entering the final hours of 2025 with a significant escalation in deep-strike exchange. While ground movement is largely constrained by localized tactical engagements and weather, the air domain is saturated. UAF has demonstrated high-reach capabilities by striking Yaroslavl (approx. 700km from the border), while RF continues a multi-vector UAV ingress designed to overwhelm Ukrainian AD before the anticipated 1800Z holiday strike window.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Intentions
Strategic Air Operations: RF is maintaining continuous "loitering" pressure with Shaheds over northern and southern oblasts. The presence of drones in Romny (Sumy) and Nizhyn (Chernihiv) suggests a shaping operation to map AD corridors for a larger midnight volley.
Tactical Pressure: Continued KAB usage in the East indicates RF intends to maintain a high attrition rate on UAF frontline fortifications regardless of the holiday.
Logistics & Rear: The "Red Level" UAV threat in Lipetsk (1414Z) and airport chaos in Moscow (1407Z) suggest RF rear security is strained by UAF's synchronized deep-strike campaign.
Tactics & Adaptations
Information Warfare: Use of seasonal addresses (Medvedev, Akhmat) to project an image of "inevitable victory" while simultaneously seeding doubt about Western aid (the NYT shell claim) to degrade UAF morale before the Jan 3 summit.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Posture & Readiness
Strategic Reach: Successful strikes on the "Temp" facility (Yaroslavl) and Tuapse port (1425Z) confirm UAF's capability to hit critical RF industrial and export infrastructure simultaneously across divergent geographic axes.
Tactical Success: The Yokai Group and Southern Defense Forces report successful liquidation of personnel and assault groups in the Zaporizhzhia/Hulyaipole sector (1406Z, 1429Z), maintaining the integrity of the southern line.
Tactical Successes/Setbacks
Success: Multi-target night operation (Dec 30-31) against TOT and RF territory infrastructure (CyberBoroshno 1425Z).
Setback: RF claims of infrastructure damage in Zaporizhzhia resulting in mass power outages (1419Z) may impact local UAF civilian-military logistics if not rapidly repaired.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Propaganda/Disinformation: Russian channels are amplifying reports of "Finnish pirates" (1429Z) and "US aid blocks" (1411Z). These narratives aim to frame Ukraine's partners as either erratic or withdrawing support.
Diplomatic Signaling: Reports of a "Coalition of the Willing" considering 15,000 peacekeepers for post-war monitoring (WELT via Tsaplienko 1434Z) are circulating, likely intended to gauge public and international reaction ahead of the Jan 3 summit.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA)
RF will continue the current UAV saturation of Odesa, Chernihiv, and Sumy. Between 1800Z and 2200Z, expect a transition from Shahed loitering to a coordinated cruise/ballistic missile strike targeting Kyiv and energy hubs in Western/Central Ukraine to coincide with New Year festivities.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA)
RF forces, capitalizing on the "grim" Pokrovsk situation and the distraction of New Year's Eve, launch a multi-axis ground assault in the Hulyaipole-Zaporizhzhia sector supported by massed KAB strikes and the deployment of "Oreshnik" systems against a western logistical hub (e.g., Lviv or Rzeszow transition points) to paralyze the Jan 3 summit preparations.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
US Aid Status: Urgently verify the validity of the NYT report regarding "blocked shell shipments." Determine if this is a misinterpretation of a specific shipment delay or a broader policy shift.
Tuapse BDA: Obtain satellite imagery or SIGINT on the Tuapse port strike (1432Z) to assess the level of damage to oil export infrastructure.
Finnish Gulf Incident: Clarify the nature of the vessel detained by Finland (1429Z); determine if it was carrying dual-use goods or was involved in the "Shadow Fleet" logistics.
Hadiach Vector: Monitor the UAV group heading toward Hadiach (1424Z) to see if they target the Poltava gas infrastructure.
