CRITICAL SECTOR DETERIORATION (HIGH): DeepState reports a "grim" tactical situation in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad axis, citing extreme logistical pressure and a deteriorating defensive posture (DeepState, 1309Z).
CONTESTED CLAIM: MYRNOHRAD (LOW): Russian MoD claims the "liberation" of Dimitrov (Myrnohrad). While unconfirmed, it correlates with UAF reports of severe pressure in the sector (MoD Russia, 1309Z).
HYBRID INFRASTRUCTURE SABOTAGE (MEDIUM): Reports confirm damage to a subsea communication cable in the Gulf of Finland; likely a Russian hybrid operation targeting Baltic/NATO infrastructure (RBK-Ukr, 1324Z).
AERIAL SATURATION CONTINUES (HIGH): New OWA-UAV (Shahed) groups detected targeting Odesa, Poltava, and crossing the northern border into Sumy and Chernihiv (Air Force ZSU, 1308Z, 1311Z, 1333Z).
ZAPORIZHZHIA SECTOR GAINS (LOW): Pro-Russian sources claim the "liberation" of Lukianivske (west of the Dnipro bend) and reported localized successful engagements near Novopole (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 1306Z; Rybar, 1325Z).
INTERNAL SECURITY FRICTION (HIGH): A Ukrainian serviceman (TCC) was shot in Kharkiv during document verification, highlighting rising domestic tension regarding mobilization (RBK-Ukr, 1311Z).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is accelerating as the 1800Z "Saturation Window" approaches. Battlefield geometry is significantly stressed in the Donetsk Sector, specifically the Myrnohrad-Pokrovsk salient, where Russian forces are claiming a major urban seizure. Concurrently, the air domain remains active with persistent multi-vector drone ingress aimed at exhausting Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) magazines. In the maritime/hybrid domain, the Baltic infrastructure incident suggests a widening of the conflict's scope to pressure European partners.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Intentions
Ground Offensive (Donetsk): The RF is prioritizing the seizure of Myrnohrad (referred to as Dimitrov by RF MoD) to unhinge the logistical backbone of the Pokrovsk defense. The timing suggests a desire for a "New Year victory" to present to the domestic audience.
Aerial Operations: Use of KAB (guided aerial bombs) in Sumy and Donetsk (1314Z, 1317Z) continues to facilitate ground advances by degrading UAF hardpoints.
Logistics & Economy: Internal Russian data indicates a 15% spike in vodka prices (TASS, 1321Z), which, while seemingly trivial, is an indicator of broader inflationary pressure within the Russian war economy that the Kremlin is attempting to mask with military propaganda.
Tactics & Adaptations
Coordinated IO/Propaganda: A surge in pre-recorded holiday greetings (Medvedev, Turkin, 70th GMRR) is being used to flood the information space, attempting to normalize the war effort and project an image of calm and inevitable victory (1312Z-1329Z).
Hybrid Interdiction: The Gulf of Finland cable damage follows established Russian doctrine of "asymmetric response" to Western support, likely intended to signal vulnerability of European energy and data lifelines.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Posture & Readiness
Defensive Resilience: Despite the "grim" assessment in Pokrovsk, UAF continues to leverage specialized units (SBU) for high-impact symbolic operations to maintain morale (1309Z).
Logistics/Civil Support: Zaporizhzhia ODA is prioritizing housing for medical personnel, indicating a long-term commitment to maintaining the resilience of the medical infrastructure near the FEBA (1330Z).
Tactical Successes/Setbacks
Setback (Pokrovsk): The reported deterioration of the defensive posture near Myrnohrad/Pokrovsk suggests Russian forces have successfully interdicted key supply routes or achieved a breakthrough in the urban periphery.
Success (Information Ops): The release of a detailed "Portrait of a Russian POW" based on 10,000+ captives (Butusov Plus, 1327Z) serves as a potent counter-narrative to Russian "victory" propaganda, highlighting the human cost on the RF side.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Disinformation/Inconsistency: Sources note chronological inconsistencies in Russian high-level political addresses (1305Z), suggesting some "New Year" content may be recycled or pre-staged to cover for leadership absence or security concerns.
Morale Operations: Both sides are heavily utilizing "New Year Vibe" content from the trenches (1331Z) to humanize the frontline and maintain troop spirit during the holiday period.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA)
The RF will continue the Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad push with high-intensity urban clearing operations through the night. A mass missile/UAV volley (Saturation Strike) remains highly likely between 1800Z and 0200Z tonight, targeting Kyiv and Western Ukraine to maximize the psychological impact of the holiday transition.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA)
Exploiting the "grim" situation in Pokrovsk, RF forces achieve a clean breakthrough, leading to a collapse of the local UAF defensive line and a rapid advance toward the Dnipropetrovsk border, coinciding with a total blackout in Kyiv caused by a strategic missile strike.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Myrnohrad Status: Immediate IMINT/ELINT verification of the RF claim regarding the "liberation" of Dimitrov (Myrnohrad).
Baltic Attribution: Forensic data required on the Gulf of Finland cable damage to confirm RF "shadow fleet" or submarine involvement.
Kharkiv Social Stability: Assess if the shooting of the TCC officer is an isolated incident or part of a coordinated "anti-mobilization" campaign (Hybrid IO).
Lukianivske FEBA: Confirm current control of Lukianivske to determine the threat level to the M-18 highway and the broader Zaporizhzhia defense.
