Situation Update (1305Z 31 DEC 2025)
Key updates since last sitrep
- AIRBORNE THREAT EXPANSION (HIGH): Multiple OWA-UAV (Shahed) groups detected in Sumy (Stepanivka), Mykolaiv (northwest course), and the Kharkiv-Sumy border region (1246Z, 1257Z, 1300Z; Air Force ZSU).
- CONTESTED URBAN CONTROL NARRATIVES (MEDIUM): Russian MoD claims UAF is using "Baba Yaga" drones to plant flags in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) and Rodynske to "fake" control; suggests Russian forces are attempting to establish a "liberation" narrative despite ongoing urban combat (1259Z; MoD Russia).
- LONG-RANGE FPV INTERDICTION (MEDIUM): UAF "IFG" pilots successfully engaged a Russian military vehicle at a range of ~60km near Donetsk using FPV technology, indicating significant depth in drone strike capabilities (1245Z; Operative ZSU).
- VALDAI "STRIKE" DISINFORMATION (HIGH): Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service (SZR) confirmed that the RF-released map of a drone attack on Putin's Valdai residence is a fabrication (1235Z; RBK-Ukr).
- CRITICAL ASSET ATTRITION (MEDIUM): Russian sources provided visual evidence of a precision strike against a UAF AS-90 self-propelled howitzer in Rayske (Donetsk sector) (1247Z; Colonelcassad).
- MISSILE DANGER IN RU REAR (MEDIUM): Rocket danger warnings issued in Lipetsk region, Russia, suggesting potential UAF long-range counter-strikes (1244Z; Igor Artamonov).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is transitioning into the expected New Year’s Eve "Saturation Window." Russian forces have shifted from localized industrial strikes (Zaporizhzhia) to a multi-vector UAV harassment campaign across the Sumy, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv axes. This is assessed as a preparatory phase to fix Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) assets before a larger missile volley.
Battlefield geometry in the Donetsk Sector is characterized by intense information-tactical friction. Both sides are competing for "visual control" (flag planting) in the Krasnoarmiisk/Pokrovsk area, which remains the most volatile ground axis. Weather remains consistent, permitting high-intensity drone operations but restricting heavy mechanized movement to established road networks.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Intentions
- Information Operations (IO): The RF is utilizing the New Year transition to project strategic endurance. Putin’s address (1239Z) and pro-Russian channels framing 2026 as the "Year of Victory" (1243Z, Basurin) are designed to counter Western long-term support narratives.
- Aerial Tactics: The distribution of UAVs across northern, eastern, and southern axes (1246Z-1300Z) suggests a "search and fix" mission to identify active AD radar signatures for subsequent suppression.
- Counter-ISR: Russian forces are highlighting the capture and restoration of UAF equipment (e.g., a tank near Kostiantynivka, 1303Z) to bolster domestic morale and demonstrate logistical recovery capabilities.
Tactics & Adaptations
- FPV Employment: Pro-Russian "Hunter" Spetsnaz units continue to demonstrate high proficiency with FPV drones against Western-supplied soft-skin and light armored vehicles (Humvees) in the DNR sector (1303Z).
- Narrative Shielding: The Russian MoD’s preemptive claim that UAF flags in Pokrovsk are "drone-delivered fakes" is a defensive IO tactic to mitigate the impact of potential UAF tactical counter-attacks or confirmed presence in areas claimed as "liberated."
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture & Readiness
- Deep Strike Capability: The reported 60km FPV strike (1245Z) represents a critical evolution in tactical depth, potentially allowing UAF to interdict RF logistics nodes and "buggy columns" far behind the immediate FEBA.
- Legal/Financial Integrity: The seizure of 10m UAH in misappropriated charity funds (1300Z, Prosecutor General) indicates ongoing internal security efforts to maintain donor confidence and civil stability during the escalation.
Tactical Successes/Setbacks
- Success: Successful FPV engagement of Russian infantry signaling for their own drones (1237Z) demonstrates superior UAF situational awareness and drone-integration at the platoon level.
- Setback: The loss of an AS-90 in Rayske (1247Z) is a confirmed tactical blow to UAF counter-battery capabilities in the Donetsk sector.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
- Fake "Valdai" Map: The SZR’s identification of the fake RF map suggests the Kremlin is attempting to manufacture a "casu belli" or justification for the expected high-intensity "Oreshnik/Ballistic" strike tonight.
- US-Ukraine Relations: Russian channels are actively circulating unconfirmed reports (citing NYT) of the US President-elect disparaging advisors for supporting Zelenskyy (1257Z). This is a classic "reflexive control" operation aimed at demoralizing UAF leadership before the Jan 3 summit.
- Diplomatic Outreach: The US Chargé d'Affaires' Russian-language address is being monitored; Russian state-aligned actors are attempting to frame this as "standard diplomacy" while focusing on internal RF patriotic content.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA)
The saturation strike is imminent. Between 1800Z and 2200Z, a coordinated wave of Kalibr (Black Sea), Kh-101 (Tu-95MS), and Iskander-M/K (Ground) is expected. Target sets will likely focus on:
- Kyiv (Decision centers/Bankova) - to disrupt New Year messaging.
- Energy Grid Nodes - to maximize civilian discomfort during the holiday.
- Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk Logistics - to support the 33rd GMRR's potential ground push.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA)
The RF utilizes the "Valdai Fake" to justify a tactical nuclear or "Oreshnik" demonstration strike on a remote military facility or a major logistical hub in Western Ukraine (e.g., Lviv/Yavoriv) to create a "strategic shock" prior to the January diplomatic transition.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
- AS-90 Loss Impact: Assess remaining tube artillery density in the Rayske/Donetsk sector to determine if a fire-support gap exists.
- 60km FPV Technical Specs: Confirm if the 60km range was achieved via signal repeaters or new long-range flight controllers; evaluate scalability for other sectors.
- Pokrovsk FEBA: Urgent need for independent visual confirmation of UAF flags in Krasnoarmiisk/Rodynske to verify the "MoD Russia" flag-drone claim.
- B-76 Activity: Monitor for further "Buzzer" (UVB-76) anomalies that preceded previous major launches.
//ANALYSIS ENDS//
