Situation Update (1235Z 31 DEC 2025)
Key updates since last sitrep
- ACTIVE AIR ASSAULT ON ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH): Multiple UAVs detected approaching Zaporizhzhia from the east at 1227Z. Industrial infrastructure is currently on fire following earlier strikes (1212Z, ASTRA; 1227Z, Air Force).
- HULIAIPOLE SECTOR CLARIFICATION (HIGH): Operational Command "South" confirmed Russian forces have not fully occupied Huliaipole; the city remains contested with UAF maintaining defensive positions (1218Z, Operative ZSU).
- PURL COALITION EXPANSION (HIGH): Croatia and Romania have officially joined the American-led PURL initiative, specifically earmarking funds for Patriot missile interceptors (1227Z, Zelenskiy).
- INTERNAL SECURITY INCIDENTS (MEDIUM): A TCC (recruitment) officer was shot and wounded in Kharkiv; suspect apprehended. A separate "volatile incident" was reported in Lutsk. These may be exploited for Russian psychological operations (1203Z, 1232Z, Operative ZSU/Colonelcassad).
- ALLEGED DRG ENGAGEMENT (UNCONFIRMED/LOW): Russian MoD claims to have "destroyed" two Ukrainian Sabotage and Reconnaissance Groups (DRGs) in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) and Rodynske. No UAF corroboration (1223Z, Operatsiya Z).
- AERIAL ATTRITION SUCCESS (MEDIUM): Visual evidence confirms UAF interceptor drones successfully neutralized a Shahed-type UAV in flight (1219Z, Tsaplienko).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently dominated by a Russian aerial offensive targeting the Zaporizhzhia industrial hub and a massive, coordinated information operation preceding the New Year transition. While the frontline in the Huliaipole sector remains more stable than previously rumored, the threat of a localized Russian breakthrough in the Southern/South Donetsk axis remains elevated.
Weather conditions across the Donbas continue to favor Russian "UMPK" (glide bomb) employment and drone-based ISR, though UAF has demonstrated effective counter-UAV technology (interceptor drones). Civil unrest incidents in Kharkiv and Lutsk indicate a heightened domestic stress level that may be targeted by Russian hybrid "reflexive control" campaigns.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Intentions
- Aerial Operations: The RF is currently employing a tiered strike package against Zaporizhzhia, utilizing "one-way attack" (OWA) UAVs (likely Shahed variants) to fix Air Defense (AD) assets following earlier ballistic strikes. This confirms an intent to suppress the industrial-logistics base in the south.
- Psychological Operations (PsyOp): Russian state media (TASS) and "Z-channels" (Rybar, Alex Parker) have launched a saturation campaign of "2025 Retrospectives" and New Year's greetings from Putin and Medvedev. These are designed to project strategic stability and territorial gains that do not align with current ground truth (e.g., Rybar's claim of 2025 "liberation" successes).
- Information Warfare: The Russian MoD's claim of destroying UAF DRGs in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) is likely a shaping narrative to justify further heavy bombardment of the sector or to manufacture a "victory" for the New Year's reporting cycle.
Tactics & Adaptations
- Ground Tactics: Russian forces continue to test UAF lines near Huliaipole but have failed to secure the urban center.
- Logistics: Strike patterns on Zaporizhzhia industrial sites suggest a prioritized effort to degrade UAF heavy equipment repair facilities before the anticipated Jan 3 summit.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture & Readiness
- Defensive Integrity: UAF Op Command "South" maintains control of key terrain in Huliaipole. The integration of interceptor drones (e.g., "STING" or similar) provides a low-cost solution to OWA-UAV threats, preserving high-end Patriot/SAMP-T interceptors for ballistic threats.
- Strategic Support: The addition of Romania and Croatia to the PURL initiative ensures a sustainment pipeline for Patriot systems, critical for counteracting the "Oreshnik/Iskander" threat profile.
Tactical Successes/Setbacks
- Success: Successful drone-on-drone interception (1219Z) demonstrates rising technical proficiency in the electronic warfare (EW) and counter-UAS domains.
- Setback: Internal security incidents in the rear (Kharkiv/Lutsk) represent a vulnerability in civil-military relations that requires immediate counter-disinformation management.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
- Russian Narrative: Framing 2025 as a year of "total victory" and projecting an air of inevitability. Medvedev's address explicitly mentions "victory in 2026," shifting the timeline for domestic consumption.
- U.S. Diplomatic Outreach: The U.S. Chargé d'Affaires' Russian-language greeting (1208Z) is being monitored for Russian spin; early indications show Z-channels attempting to frame it as "weakness."
- Domestic Sentiment: Violent incidents targeting TCC personnel in Kharkiv (1203Z) suggest a high level of societal friction regarding mobilization that Russian hybrid actors will likely exploit to trigger further unrest.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA)
Consistent with previous patterns, a massive nationwide missile and UAV saturation strike is expected to commence between 1800Z and 2100Z. This will likely target Kyiv (Bankova), energy infrastructure, and logistics nodes in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia. The current UAV activity in Zaporizhzhia is assessed as a "pre-cursor" to deplete localized AD.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA)
The RF exploits the reported "DRG activity" in Krasnoarmiisk as a pretext for a rapid mechanized push by the 33rd GMRR toward the M-04 highway during the height of the New Year's Eve aerial saturation, attempting to seize a tactical advantage while UAF command is saturated by air-raid management.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
- Zaporizhzhia BDA: Urgent requirement for Battle Damage Assessment of the "industrial infrastructure" hit at 1212Z. Determine if Western-supplied repair assets were compromised.
- Huliaipole FEBA: Verify the exact Forward Edge of Battle Area (FEBA) around Huliaipole. Russian claims of partial occupation persist despite UAF denials.
- Internal Security: Monitor Russian-aligned social media for "organic" calls for protests following the Kharkiv shooting to identify "Point of Origin" for potential hybrid operations.
//ANALYSIS ENDS//
