CONFIRMED BALLISTIC STRIKE ON ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH): Following the 1107Z strike, UAF Air Force confirmed a "high-speed target" (likely ballistic/Iskander) launched from occupied territory at 1144Z. Multiple fires are currently being suppressed at the impact site (1144Z, Air Force; 1202Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA).
STRIKE ON 156TH OMBr (MEDIUM): Russian sources claim a successful strike using three FAB-500 UMPK (glide bombs) against a Point of Temporary Deployment (PVD) of the 156th Separate Mechanized Brigade in Kostiantynivka. UNCONFIRMED (1155Z, Colonelcassad).
PURL COALITION MILESTONE (HIGH): President Zelenskiy confirmed the American-led weapon procurement initiative (PURL) has surpassed 20 participating nations, providing a massive scale-up for mid-term ammunition and AD interceptor supply (1200Z, RBK-Ukraine).
IDENTIFIED ENEMY UNIT DISPOSITION (MEDIUM): Personnel from the 33rd Guards Motor Rifle Regiment (GMRR) were identified in recent media, confirming their presence and readiness in the southern sector (1202Z, Dva Mayora).
CROSS-BORDER UAV OPERATIONS (HIGH): One civilian killed and three wounded in Belgorod Oblast following a UAF drone attack, according to regional authorities; Russian MoD claims to have repelled a "massed strike" (1141Z, 1156Z, TASS/ASTRA).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield is characterized by a "holiday surge" in Russian kinetic activity, primarily through tactical aviation and long-range precision strikes. While ground maneuvers have slowed to a localized tempo, the use of high-yield munitions (FAB-500s) and ballistic missiles against industrial and troop concentration points suggests a concerted effort to degrade Ukrainian logistics and morale 9.5 hours before the New Year transition. Weather remains a factor in the Donbas, with "snowy/forested" conditions supporting the concealment of Russian MLRS assets (DS Belief: 0.076).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Intentions
Tactical Aviation: The RF is leveraging UMPK-equipped FAB-500s to target rear-area troop concentrations (Kostiantynivka). This indicates a high level of ISR-to-strike integration, likely using Orlan or Supercam UAVs for real-time spotting of UAF deployments.
Strategic Misdirection: Kallas (EU) assessed that RF claims regarding the Valdai drone strike are "deliberate distractions" designed to shift international focus from their own escalating infrastructure strikes (1146Z, RBK-Ukraine).
Artillery Posture: The 33rd GMRR and BM-27 "Uragan" units are active and conducting holiday-period reloading/maneuver, indicating no reduction in combat readiness despite the date (1202Z, WarGonzo).
Logistics and Sustainment
Ammunition Conservation: Despite high-intensity strikes, the shift to UMPK glide bombs suggests an attempt to preserve more expensive cruise missiles for the anticipated 1800Z-0000Z saturation wave.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture & Readiness
3rd Separate Assault Brigade (3-тя ОШБр): The unit is maintaining high public visibility and morale-building activities (podcasts, memorials), suggesting they may be in a reserve or stabilization role in their current sector. Their "Day of the Dead" ritual highlights a strong internal cohesion and resilience (1915Z, 30 Dec).
Strategic Depth: The expansion of the PURL initiative to 20+ countries significantly mitigates the "interceptor exhaustion" risk, though immediate tactical availability remains a gap for the next 12 hours.
Tactical Challenges
Vulnerability to UMPK: The reported strike in Kostiantynivka underscores the continued threat of Russian glide bombs against fixed positions (PVDs). UAF units must maintain high displacement frequency.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Propaganda & Disinformation
Geopolitical Forecasting: Russian state media (RT) is circulating "retrospective" videos for the year 2025, framed as if the RF has already achieved major strategic victories. This is a psychological operation aimed at projecting an air of inevitability to the Russian public (1148Z, Poddubny).
US Greeting Narrative: Pro-Russian channels (Z-channels) are amplifying the US Chargé d'Affaires' Russian-language New Year greeting, attempting to frame it as "weakness" or a "softening" of US policy, despite its standard diplomatic nature (1139Z, 1153Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA)
A coordinated, multi-axis strike sequence starting at approximately 1800Z. This will likely begin with Shahed saturation to deplete AD interceptors, followed by a mix of Kalibr (from the Black Sea) and Iskander (from TOТ/Russia) targeting energy infrastructure and the "Bankova" district in Kyiv.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA)
Exploiting the reported Kostiantynivka strike, the RF launches a localized mechanized breakthrough toward the M-04 highway, utilizing the 33rd GMRR while UAF command is focused on managing the nationwide aerial threat and ongoing evacuations in Dnipropetrovsk.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
156th OMBr Status: Confirm the extent of damage in Kostiantynivka. If the PVD was hit, evaluate the impact on the brigade's defensive readiness on the eastern axis.
"High-Speed Target" ID: Determine if the 1144Z strike on Zaporizhzhia utilized a standard Iskander-M or a newer system (e.g., Oreshnik/Zircon) to assess threat evolution.
PURL Delivery Timelines: Identify the lead time for the first batch of missiles/ammunition funded by the expanded 20-country coalition.
