INDUSTRIAL STRIKE IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH): A Russian strike has successfully targeted an industrial infrastructure facility in Zaporizhzhia city (1107Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA).
MULTI-VECTOR UAV SATURATION (HIGH): New UAV threats identified: entering Dnipropetrovsk toward Nikopol from the East (1112Z), Zaporizhzhia from the Southwest (1115Z) and East (1134Z), Sumy from the North and Northeast (1124Z, 1128Z), and Odesa from the Black Sea toward Karolino-Bugaz (1122Z).
PURL COALITION EXPANSION (HIGH): Romania and Croatia have joined the American weapon procurement initiative (PURL), providing immediate funding for Patriot missiles and other critical systems (1119Z, Zelenskiy).
INTERNAL RF ATTRITION (MEDIUM): An RF commander (callsign "Starina") was reportedly found dead with four gunshot wounds; BBC (via Ukrainian sources) reports Russian casualties in 2025 are 40% higher than any previous year of the invasion (1109Z, Sever.Realii; 1119Z, Tsaplienko).
CONTESTED DRG CLAIMS (LOW): Russian MoD claims to have destroyed two Ukrainian "flag-raising" Sabotage and Reconnaissance Groups (DRGs) in Krasnoarmiisk and Rodinske (1110Z, TASS). UNCONFIRMED.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is transitioning into a high-intensity phase as nightfall approaches on New Year's Eve. Russia has shifted from reconnaissance to active industrial strikes (Zaporizhzhia) and has expanded the UAV threat to include the Odesa coastal sector and Northern Sumy. Heavy tactical clashes persist across all major eastern axes, with significant Russian aviation activity targeting the Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia border areas.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Intentions
Aerial Operations: The RF is maintaining a constant "pressure" profile using small UAV groups arriving from multiple directions (East, Southwest, North, and Seaward) to map Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) responses before a potential massed strike. Aviation is increasingly used for deep tactical strikes in the Velykomykhaylivka (Dnipro) and Orikhiv sectors.
Tactical Changes: In the Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka directions, the RF is pushing into secondary settlements (Rodinske, Chervonyy Lyman, Kleban-Byk) to broaden the breakthrough front.
Internal Stability: The assassination/death of "Starina" and reports of massive ATM withdrawal restrictions suggest high internal friction within the RF command and economic sectors.
Logistics and Sustainment
Sustainment Friction: Despite Putin's public claims of full military supply (1112Z, Butusov Plus), independent analysis and satirized footage suggest ongoing discrepancies in frontline gear and vehicle availability.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture & Readiness
Defensive Success: Ukrainian forces repelled two Russian assaults in the Kherson direction (1114Z). Defense remains solid in the Kupyansk and Lyman sectors despite high-intensity clashes near Zarichne and Bohuslavka.
Resource Management: The inclusion of Romania and Croatia in the PURL initiative provides a critical replenishment path for AD interceptors, addressing a major gap ahead of the anticipated winter strike campaign.
Irregular Warfare: Russian claims regarding UAF DRGs in the rear suggest continued Ukrainian efforts to conduct psychological operations or flag-planting missions in occupied/contested areas to undermine Russian administrative control.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Propaganda & Disinformation
"Invincibility" Narrative: Russian state media (TASS) is circulating an unconfirmed NYT-attributed claim that Donald Trump called Russia "invincible" (1113Z). This is a likely disinformation effort to demoralize UAF forces and suggest a shift in US policy.
Diplomatic Exploitation: Pro-Russian channels are using the US Embassy's standard New Year greeting to suggest a "softening" of Washington’s stance, framing it as a willingness to "surrender Kherson and Zaporizhzhia" (1134Z, Alex Parker).
POW Data: Ukraine is successfully using the "10,000+ POWs" statistic to counter Russian morale, specifically highlighting surrenders during the 2025 period (1123Z, Operativniy ZSU).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA)
Continuation of current UAV saturation through 1800Z, followed by a massed missile volley (Kalibr/Iskander/Shahed) targeting energy infrastructure in Kyiv, Dnipro, and Lviv to coincide with the New Year transition.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA)
A coordinated ground-and-air offensive in the Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk sector, utilizing the chaos of the mass evacuations (reported in the previous daily) and holiday reduced-readiness to attempt a breakthrough toward the M-04 highway, supported by "Oreshnik" or strategic aviation strikes.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Zaporizhzhia BDA: Urgent requirement for Battle Damage Assessment of the "industrial infrastructure" hit at 1107Z. Determine if this affects repair facilities for heavy armor or AD.
Internal RF Purge: Verify the circumstances of the death of commander "Starina." Determine if this indicates a wider purge of underperforming tactical commanders.
DRG Verification: Confirm the status of UAF personnel in the Krasnoarmiisk/Rodinske sector to refute or confirm Russian MoD claims of destroyed units.
