UAV THREAT ESCALATION (HIGH): New UAV vectors identified: Group moving from Kharkiv region via Kolomak toward Poltava (1053Z, Air Force UA); UAVs approaching Zaporizhzhia from the East (1043Z, Air Force UA); and a suspected reconnaissance UAV near Kremenchuk currently being engaged (1059Z, Air Force UA).
DECAPITATION NARRATIVE (MEDIUM): Alexander Lukashenko (Belarus) publicly presented a military map alleging potential Russian strikes on President Zelenskyy’s residence, framing it as a response to the "Valdai" incident (1041Z, Tsaplienko; MEDIUM).
TUAPSE DAMAGE CONFIRMED (HIGH): Russian regional authorities confirm damage to the Maritime Cadet Corps, a neuropsychiatric dispensary, and a technical school in Tuapse. Ukrainian sources sarcastically claim these were the primary targets to deflect from oil infrastructure, but the penetration of RF airspace is confirmed (1044Z, Operativniy ZSU; 1054Z, ASTRA; HIGH).
RF DOMESTIC FRICTION (MEDIUM): Reports indicate Russian banks have begun blocking large cash withdrawals via ATMs, suggesting liquidity concerns or measures to prevent capital flight during the holiday period (1058Z, ASTRA; MEDIUM).
POW TRENDS (MEDIUM): The "I Want to Live" project reports that Russian surrenders in 2025 exceeded the combined totals of 2022 and 2023, totaling over 10,000 personnel (1056Z, Tsaplienko; MEDIUM).
SEVERE WEATHER (HIGH): Temperature drops to -17°C and heavy snowdrifts reported in the Carpathian Mountains (Mt. Pip Ivan), likely impacting Western logistical routes and mountain patrol operations (1037Z, RBK-UA; HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by heightened aerial activity and a significant escalation in Russian "retaliatory" rhetoric. Russia is utilizing the New Year’s Eve window to maximize psychological pressure. Weather conditions in the West (Carpathians) are deteriorating sharply, while the Eastern and Southern fronts remain under active UAV saturation.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Intentions
Aerial Operations: The shift toward using reconnaissance UAVs (e.g., Kremenchuk vector) suggests the RF is conducting final target verification for a planned missile volley. The movement of Shahed groups from Kharkiv toward Poltava indicates a widening of the strike zone to include central industrial nodes.
Strategic Messaging: Lukashenko’s involvement signals a coordinated effort to broaden the threat perception to include the Belarusian axis, likely to fix UAF reserves in the North. Reference to the 2024 "Oreshnik" strike on Yuzhmash (1047Z, Colonelcassad) serves as a specific technological threat intended to deter UAF long-range strikes.
Internal Security: A counter-terrorism operation in St. Petersburg and ATM withdrawal limits suggest the Kremlin is tightening domestic control to prevent holiday-period instability (1059Z, Two Majors; 1058Z, ASTRA).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture & Readiness
Air Defense: Active engagement of reconnaissance assets in the Kremenchuk sector (1059Z). UAF remains in a high state of alert for a massed New Year's Eve strike.
Information Operations: UAF-aligned channels are successfully countering Russian "festive" propaganda with data on Russian POW surrenders and sarcastic framing of the Tuapse strikes to highlight the vulnerability of Russian rear areas.
Mobilization: Russian sources claim an increase in Ukrainian joint police/military patrols for mobilization during the holidays (1103Z, Colonelcassad). While framed negatively by the enemy, this likely reflects a UAF push to consolidate personnel reserves ahead of the Jan 3 summit.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Propaganda & Disinformation
Decapitation Strikes: The "Target: Bankova" narrative is being pushed heavily via Belarusian and Russian state media to induce panic in the capital.
Western Friction: Unconfirmed reports (citing NYT) of friction between Donald Trump and Keith Kellogg regarding the assessment of President Zelenskyy are circulating (1042Z, Tsaplienko). CONFIDENCE: LOW. This is likely timed to undermine the perceived unity of the incoming US administration.
Domestic RF Morale: Significant output of patriotic New Year content (Gazmanov, Ded Moroz, Basurin) suggests a high-priority effort to maintain public support amidst economic friction (ATM blocks).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA)
A coordinated, multi-domain strike involving 60-80 missiles and saturation UAV swarms targeting Kyiv and energy infrastructure between 1800Z 31 DEC and 0400Z 01 JAN. The goal is to maximize civilian disruption and "retaliate" for the Valdai strike.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA)
A strategic "demonstration" strike using the Oreshnik system or a massed Iskander-M volley against the government quarter in Kyiv, synchronized with a probing attack in the Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk sector to capitalize on holiday-reduced reaction times.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Poltava UAV Vector: Monitor if the group passing Kolomak (1053Z) targets the Mirhorod airbase or energy substations.
RF ATM Restrictions: Determine if ATM blocks are localized to major cities (Moscow/St. Petersburg) or indicate a nationwide liquidity crisis.
SAMP/T NG Deployment: Verify the timeline for the newly tested SAMP/T NG systems to reach the Ukrainian theater, as reported by pro-Russian sources (1105Z).
