CASUALTIES IN ODESA (HIGH): Hostile attack on Odesa confirmed; 4 casualties reported, including 3 children. (0117Z, RBK-Ukraine via MVA, HIGH).
KAB LAUNCHES – KHARKIV (HIGH): RF tactical aviation launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) toward Kharkiv region from the north. (0106Z, Air Force, HIGH).
MARITIME UAV THREAT (HIGH): New UAV detected in the Black Sea, currently on an approach vector toward Odesa. (0129Z, Air Force, HIGH).
TACTICAL AVIATION SURGE – EAST (MEDIUM): Increased RF tactical aviation activity detected along the eastern axis; specific targets not yet identified. (0128Z, Air Force, MEDIUM).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment has evolved from localized UAV probing (Orikhiv sector, 0044Z) to a multi-axis aerial offensive targeting the North, East, and South.
Battlefield Geometry: The conflict has expanded into a "Deep Battle" posture, with RF utilizing stand-off munitions (KABs) in the North and maritime-based assets in the South to strike rear-tier infrastructure and civilian centers.
Weather: Continued clear conditions facilitate RF tactical aviation sorties and UAV navigation in the Black Sea corridor.
Control Measures: Air alerts remain active for Kharkiv, Odesa, and Eastern frontline oblasts.
Tactical Aviation (Air-to-Ground): The launch of KABs (0106Z) suggests RF is leveraging the range of guided bombs to strike Kharkiv without entering the immediate lethal envelope of medium-range AD. The "activity in the East" (0128Z) likely represents CAS (Close Air Support) or interdiction sorties targeting UAF supply lines.
Maritime Operations: The approach of UAVs from the Black Sea (0129Z) following a kinetic strike (0117Z) indicates a "double-tap" or multi-wave tactic designed to overwhelm emergency responders and AD reloading cycles in Odesa.
Intentions: RF is likely intensifying the aerial component of the "retaliatory" narrative mentioned in previous reports, specifically targeting civilian morale (Odesa casualties) to pressure the UAF command ahead of the Jan 3 summit.
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): RF will continue tactical aviation cycles (KAB/UAV) through the morning twilight (0400Z-0700Z) to maximize visibility for BDA (Battle Damage Assessment).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking - IPB Step 3)
Odesa Defense: Local MVA and AD units are in active engagement. The confirmation of child casualties (0117Z) may necessitate a shift in AD priority toward residential sectors over port infrastructure in the immediate 6h window.
Kharkiv Posture: UAF units in the North are under KAB threat; mobile AD teams (MANPADS/Gepard) are likely repositioning to intercept low-altitude threats, though KABs remain difficult to intercept without heavy SAM systems.
Readiness: Sustained alerts across multiple sectors are beginning to test the endurance of AD crews, particularly following the 20km ground threat and mass drone waves in Sumy reported in the previous 24h.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain - IPB Step 4)
Propaganda Alignment: The civilian casualties in Odesa will likely be ignored or framed as "collateral from Ukrainian AD" by the pro-Russian "Grigoriev Tribunal" (0103Z) to maintain the narrative of RF "legal retaliation" for Valdai.
Dempster-Shafer Support: High belief scores for "Airstrike by Enemy on Frontline areas" (0.056) and "Drone Strike on Odesa" (0.056) are now confirmed by kinetic events, validating the predictive model's focus on the South and East.
MLCOA (Next 6-12h): Continuous KAB strikes on Kharkiv's periphery to fix UAF reserves, while the Black Sea UAVs conduct terminal dives on Odesa energy or port nodes. Tactical aviation in the East will likely transition to support the 33rd GMRR in the Dobropilsky salient.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): A coordinated "Alpha" strike involving tactical aviation KABs, Black Sea Kalibrs, and Iskander-M ballistic missiles targeting Kyiv and Dnipro, exploiting the current focus on Odesa and Kharkiv.
6. OUTLOOK (Next 6-12h)
Odesa: Critical threat. Expect further UAV arrivals within 30-60 minutes.
Kharkiv: High risk of sustained KAB bombardment.
Eastern Front: Increased risk of air-to-ground strikes on assembly areas.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Munition ID (Odesa): Confirm if the 0117Z strike was a Shahed-136 or a ballistic missile to refine AD requirements.
Aviation Origin: Identify the launch airfields for the Kharkiv KABs (likely Belgorod/Kursk) to facilitate counter-battery or drone strikes on those hubs.
33rd GMRR Status: Determine if the "aviation activity in the East" (0128Z) is providing direct prep fire for a ground assault by the 33rd GMRR in the Dobropilsky salient.
