NEW UAV THREAT – ORIKHIV SECTOR (HIGH): At 0044Z, UAF Air Force confirmed a loitering munition (UAV) entering Zaporizhzhia airspace, tracking toward Orikhiv. (0044Z, Air Force, HIGH).
ESCALATION OF INFORMATION OPERATIONS (HIGH): Pro-Russian channels are disseminating video testimony via the "International Public Tribunal on the Crimes of Ukrainian Neo-Nazis," chaired by M.S. Grigoriev. This aligns with the "retaliation" narrative for the alleged Valdai strike. (0103Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH).
RF INTERNAL DISRUPTION – TASS REPORTS MASS EMBEZZLEMENT (MEDIUM): RF state media reports the theft of 930M rubles earmarked for Kamchatka infrastructure. While domestic in nature, this indicates ongoing friction within the RF administrative-military complex. (0104Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational focus remains on the Southern Operational District, specifically the Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk axis.
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline near Orikhiv is under immediate aerial pressure. This follows a period of ballistic posturing (0007Z-0020Z) reported in the previous sitrep.
Weather: Stable, clear conditions continue to facilitate both RF drone navigation and UAF visual detection.
Force Dispositions: RF forces are utilizing tactical UAVs to maintain pressure on the Zaporizhzhia sector, likely to prevent UAF from reallocating mobile AD assets toward the North or Kyiv.
Tactical UAV Operations: The launch toward Orikhiv (0044Z) suggests a shift from high-altitude ballistic probing back to low-altitude tactical harassment or reconnaissance of UAF forward positions.
Narrative Shaping: The "Grigoriev Tribunal" activity is a coordinated effort to provide "legal" and "moral" cover for the anticipated missile retaliation (MDCOA) mentioned in the previous daily report.
Logistics/C2: The corruption report regarding Kamchatka infrastructure (0104Z) may indicate systemic vulnerabilities in RF logistics and construction, though its immediate impact on the FEBA is negligible.
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): RF will use single/small-cell UAV strikes on Orikhiv to fix UAF units in place while prepping a larger coordinated strike for the 0400Z-0600Z window.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking - IPB Step 3)
Posture: Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration (OVA) and Air Force are maintaining high-alert status (0042Z).
Zaporizhzhia Defense: UAF units in the Orikhiv sector are likely in "hardened" posture following the 0044Z UAV alert.
Resource Constraints: Sustained air alerts (ballistic followed by UAV) are increasing crew fatigue for AD units in the South.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain - IPB Step 4)
Hybrid Warfare: The promotion of the "International Public Tribunal" (0103Z) is a classic "reflexive control" tactic. By flooding the information space with allegations of "Ukrainian crimes," the RF seeks to diminish international support ahead of the Jan 3 summit.
Dempster-Shafer Support: Analytical models show high belief in "Information Warfare: Propaganda Effort" (0.21) and "Disinformation Campaign" (0.14), confirming that the current kinetic pause is being filled by heavy psychological operations.
MLCOA (Next 6-12h): Harassing UAV strikes on Orikhiv and Zaporizhzhia outskirts will continue. Expect these to be the precursor to a 0400Z-0600Z combined strike involving Shahed-type UAVs and potentially sea-launched Kalibr missiles to exploit morning twilight.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): A massed ballistic volley from Crimea targeting Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro logistics hubs, timed to coincide with the conclusion of the current "propaganda wave" to maximize psychological shock.
6. OUTLOOK (Next 6-12h)
Orikhiv/Zaporizhzhia: High kinetic risk from UAVs. Residents and personnel should remain in shelters.
Kyiv/Central Ukraine: Increased risk of long-range missile strikes as the "legal justification" (via propaganda) is finalized by Moscow.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Orikhiv BDA: Determine if the 0044Z UAV was a reconnaissance (Orlan-10/Supercam) or strike (Shahed/Lancet) variant.
33rd GMRR Movement: Monitor for any movement of the 33rd GMRR in the Dobropilsky salient synchronized with the Orikhiv UAV activity.
Electronic Warfare (EW): Identify if RF is using specialized EW to mask the UAV approach to Orikhiv.
