BALLISTIC THREAT NEUTRALIZED - SOUTH (HIGH): A short-duration ballistic missile alert (0007Z-0020Z) triggered for Southern Ukraine/Zaporizhzhia, with launches suspected from occupied Crimea. No impacts reported; all-clear issued at 0020Z. (0007Z, Air Force; 0021Z, Vanyek, HIGH).
UNCONFIRMED: FPV STRIKES ON ODESA MARITIME ASSETS (LOW): Pro-Russian sources claim FPV drone strikes against vessels in Odesa ports. This remains uncorroborated by official Ukrainian sources or maritime tracking. (0033Z, Colonelcassad, LOW).
UNCONFIRMED: RF DEPLOYMENT OF ANTI-DRONE LASER (LOW): Russian sources report the first successful field engagement of an FPV drone (1km range) using the "Posokh" (Staff) laser complex. Likely a psychological operation or limited field testing. (0018Z, Colonelcassad, LOW).
ZAPORIZHZHIA AIR ALERT CYCLE (HIGH): The region transitioned from a general alert to a ballistic-specific warning and back to all-clear within a 20-minute window, indicating high-intensity monitoring of Crimean launch sites. (0005Z-0022Z, Zova, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The focus of aerial activity has expanded from the Northern UAV vector (reported in the 0005Z SITREP) to include ballistic posturing in the Southern Operational District.
Battlefield Geometry: The threat is currently multi-axis: loitering UAVs in the North (Chernihiv) and potential ballistic launch platforms in the South (Crimea).
Weather: No significant change; cold, clear conditions in the South favor optical tracking for both AD and enemy FPV operations.
Force Disposition: UAF Air Defense remains on high alert despite "all-clear" signals, anticipating synchronized strikes.
Ballistic Posturing: The brief 0007Z alert suggests RF is utilizing "launch-and-scoot" tactics or electronic simulation of launches to probe UAF radar response times and AD positioning.
Maritime Interdiction: If the 0033Z reports of FPV strikes in Odesa are true, it represents a tactical shift toward using low-cost attrition tools against high-value maritime targets, bypassing traditional anti-ship missile defenses.
Technological Maturation: The reported "Posokh" laser test (0018Z) indicates an RF effort to solve the FPV saturation problem through Directed Energy Weapons (DEW).
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): RF will likely continue sporadic ballistic "pop-up" threats from Crimea to fix Southern AD assets in place, preventing their redeployment to the North or Kyiv before a major morning strike.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking - IPB Step 3)
AD Readiness: Southern AD units demonstrated rapid response to the Crimean ballistic threat. Command-and-control (C2) latency remains low.
Civil Defense: Mass evacuations in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia (as per previous daily report) are ongoing, complicated by repeated air raid cycles.
Maritime Security: Odesa port defenses are likely being assessed for FPV vulnerabilities following RF claims.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain - IPB Step 4)
RF Technical Narrative: Promotion of the "Posokh" laser system and FPV successes in Odesa aims to project technological parity and operational initiative.
Psychological Impact: The rapid "Alert/All-Clear" cycle is assessed as a "fatigue tactic" intended to desensitize both the civilian population and AD crews before a genuine mass volley.
Dempster-Shafer Support: Belief scores for "Drone Strike on Ship in Odesa" (0.13) and "Testing of Anti-drone laser" (0.04) are noted as emerging indicators requiring further verification.
MLCOA (Next 6-12h): Transition from current "probing" alerts to a coordinated strike. The window of 0400Z-0600Z remains the highest risk for a combined missile (Crimean ballistic + Caspian cruise) attack.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): RF uses the holiday narrative (Dec 31) to mask a surge in "Oreshnik" or other intermediate-range systems targeting Odesa/Kyiv to disrupt pre-summit logistics.
Decision Point: Confirmation of Tu-95MS take-offs from northern airbases will be the primary indicator for escalating to maximum alert status.
6. OUTLOOK (Next 6-12h)
Southern Sector: Expect continued ballistic alerts. Risk to Odesa maritime infrastructure is upgraded to MEDIUM based on unconfirmed FPV reports.
Northern Sector: Chernihiv/Sumy remain under threat from the loitering UAV remnants.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Odesa BDA: Verify any kinetic activity or damage within Odesa port facilities from 0000Z-0035Z.
Laser Capability: SIGINT/ELINT focus on identifying specific frequencies or power signatures associated with "Posokh" DEW testing in the field.
Crimean Launch Sites: Real-time satellite/ISR monitoring of Iskander-M and K-300P Bastion-P units to differentiate between drills and active launches.
