AIR RAID ALL-CLEAR KYIV (HIGH): The air raid alert for Kyiv city was officially lifted at 2350Z. Kinetic activity over the capital has ceased for the immediate period. (2350Z, KMVA; 2351Z, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH).
UAV VECTOR SHIFT - CHERNIHIV (HIGH): A group of Shahed-type UAVs has been detected moving toward Chernihiv. This indicates a redirection or a secondary wave targeting the Northern axis following the Kyiv engagement. (2355Z, Air Force, HIGH).
AERIAL ATTRITION STATUS (MEDIUM): Reports indicate only a "remnant" of the initial UAV wave remains active in the airspace, suggesting high interception rates or completion of flight paths for the majority of the strike group. (2352Z, Nikolaevsky Vanyek, MEDIUM).
RF DOMESTIC "NORMALCY" NARRATIVE (LOW): Russian state media is emphasizing the start of a 12-day holiday period (Dec 31 – Jan 11). This is assessed as a deliberate psychological operation to maintain domestic stability while high-intensity strikes continue against Ukraine. (2349Z, TASS, LOW).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational focus has shifted from the immediate defense of the capital to the Northern approaches.
Battlefield Geometry: The aerial threat corridor has migrated from the Kyiv/Vyshneve sector toward the Chernihiv Oblast.
Environmental Factors: Sub-zero temperatures continue to dictate operational tempo. Icing remains a factor for both fixed-wing aviation and long-range UAV flight stability.
Force Disposition: UAF Air Defense (AD) units in the Kyiv region are transitioning to a post-engagement reset/rearm phase, while Northern AD clusters (Chernihiv/Sumy) are entering active engagement status.
Vector Auditing: The movement of UAVs toward Chernihiv (2355Z) suggests the RF is probing for gaps in the Northern AD screen that may have been thinned to support the Kyiv defense.
Sustainment of Pressure: By maintaining a "remnant" presence of UAVs (2352Z), the RF forces a continuous high-alert status for UAF personnel, inducing fatigue.
Tactical Adaptations: The shift in target areas at midnight (UTC) indicates a synchronized multi-wave approach intended to bypass localized electronic warfare (EW) concentrations.
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Continued "looping" of the remaining UAVs in the North to maintain the air raid status through the 0300Z-0500Z window, potentially serving as a precursor to a sunrise missile volley.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking - IPB Step 3)
Kyiv Defense: Successfully neutralized the immediate threat to the capital. AD systems are now being repositioned to cover critical infrastructure points likely to be targeted in follow-on waves.
Northern Grouping: Chernihiv-based AD and mobile fire groups are actively tracking the incoming UAV group (2355Z).
Resilience: Despite the strike on Bila Tserkva earlier tonight, energy and civil defense units are engaged in damage control; no reports of systemic grid failure have emerged since the Kyiv all-clear.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain - IPB Step 4)
RF Narrative: The TASS report (2349Z) on a 12-day holiday period is a "stabilization narrative" designed to contrast the domestic Russian experience with the ongoing utility crisis and bombardment in Ukraine.
Operational Security (OPSEC): UAF official channels (Air Force/KMVA) remain the primary reliable sources, with rapid "all-clear" reporting critical for preventing civil panic and optimizing emergency response.
Dempster-Shafer Support: Belief scores for "Drone Strike... in Chernihiv" (0.16) and "Reconnaissance Mission... in Chernihiv" (0.09) align with the new movement of UAV groups toward that sector.
MLCOA (Next 6-12h): The "remnant" UAVs will likely focus on infrastructure in Chernihiv and Sumy. Expect a brief period of tactical silence followed by a coordinated cruise missile strike (Kh-101/555) launched from Tu-95MS platforms around dawn (0400Z-0600Z) to exploit depleted AD stocks from tonight’s engagement.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): RF utilizes the holiday period distraction to mask the deployment of tactical ballistic missiles (Iskander-M) against government centers in Kyiv, capitalizing on the temporary "all-clear" to catch civil defense off-guard.
Decision Point: If the Chernihiv UAVs are intercepted quickly, UAF may maintain AD density. If they loiter or multiply, a secondary redeployment of mobile fire groups from the Kyiv-Zhytomyr axis will be required.
6. OUTLOOK (Next 6-12h)
Chernihiv/Sumy: High probability of kinetic engagements and localized air raid alerts.
Kyiv: Threat downgraded to "Moderate" following the all-clear, but remains subject to rapid escalation if launch activity is detected from the Caspian or Black Sea.
Frontline (Huliaipole): No change; expect continued static-to-fluid infantry engagements in winter conditions.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
UAV Attrition Rate: Exact numbers of "mopeds" (Shaheds) neutralized over Kyiv vs. those that successfully penetrated to provide a clear picture of AD saturation.
RF Long-Range Aviation (LRA): Current status of Tu-95MS/Tu-160 at Engels-2 and Olenya airbases to confirm/refute dawn strike probability.
Chernihiv Vector: Identification of specific infrastructure targets in the path of the 2355Z UAV group.
