DEEP STRIKE ESCALATION - RF INTERIOR (HIGH): A massive, multi-axis UAV wave is currently targeting the Russian Federation. Significant concentrations are reported moving toward Western Moscow Oblast, Tver, and Smolensk (1624Z, НгП раZVедка, HIGH; 1630Z, Военкор Котенок, HIGH).
CRITICAL SECTOR DETERIORATION - KUPYANSK (HIGH): Russian military sources characterize the situation in the Kupyansk direction as "extremely difficult" for Ukrainian defenders, indicating high-intensity pressure and potential tactical gains by RF forces (1606Z, Два майора/Рыбарь, HIGH).
GOVERNMENT REORGANIZATION - OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT (MEDIUM): President Zelenskyy has selected a candidate for the Head of the Office of the President (OP). Details remain withheld, but the appointment is confirmed as imminent (1623Z, 1627Z, РБК-Україна/Оперативний ЗСУ, MEDIUM).
CRIMEA STRIKE RESULTS (UNCONFIRMED): Internal Ukrainian sources report successful strikes against multiple Russian military objectives in occupied Crimea over the last 48 hours. Specific BDA is currently being verified (1631Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, LOW).
DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT - TRUMP INVITE (MEDIUM): Zelenskyy stated that a visit by Donald Trump to Ukraine would be "useful," reinforcing the strategy of direct engagement with the incoming US administration to shape the January 3 summit (1614Z, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM).
TACTICAL SUCCESS - DONETSK SECTOR (HIGH): The 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBr) successfully liquidated enemy surveillance assets ("zhduny") using specialized drone units (1615Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has shifted toward high-volume aerial "deep battle" operations. Ukraine has launched a significant UAV offensive against the Russian interior (Moscow/Tver/Smolensk), likely intended to disrupt RF command and control and retaliate for ongoing pressure in the Donbas. On the ground, the situation in Kupyansk has reached a critical threshold, while the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) axis remains a primary Russian effort.
Battlefield Geometry: The FEBA in Kupyansk is under extreme stress. Russian forces are attempting to capitalize on weather-induced mobility constraints for UAF reserves.
Weather and Environmental Factors: (No change from 1605Z) Heavy snowfall continues to impact tactical ISR and ground logistics across the northern and eastern fronts.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions:
Kupyansk Offensive: RF is likely exploiting the "extremely difficult" conditions for UAF to push for a breakthrough toward the Oskil River.
Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) Axis: RF MoD reports confirmed ATGM strikes against UAF firing points (1632Z), indicating sustained tactical pressure to clear the approaches to the city.
Public Opinion Management: RF MoD (Belousov) is engaged in end-of-year morale-boosting rhetoric, labeling the RF army the "most combat-capable in the world" (1619Z), while VTsIOM is actively messaging "war fatigue" management to the domestic audience (1632Z).
Tactical Changes: RF forces appear to be utilizing "Storm" detachments for rural road advances (1632Z), possibly bypassing heavily mined main routes during the snowfall.
Logistics & Sustainment: RF sources report the "evacuation" of civilians from Myrnohrad (1621Z), which typically precedes the conversion of residential areas into hardened military logistics nodes.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Ukrainian Force Posture:
Strategic UAV Offensive: UAF has demonstrated the capability to launch "massive" long-range UAV waves despite severe weather, targeting three Russian regions simultaneously.
Tactical Resilience: 92nd Separate Mechanized Brigade (92 OShBr) continues successful house-clearing and assault operations in contested urban/semi-urban environments (1632Z).
Governance & Rule of Law: The High Anti-Corruption Court (HACC) proceeding against MP Yuriy Kisel (1621Z) indicates that internal anti-corruption measures remain active despite the operational crisis.
Personnel Changes: The imminent appointment of a new Head of the OP suggests a strategic realignment of the President’s inner circle ahead of the Jan 3 diplomatic window.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Russian Disinformation: RF channels are promoting narratives of "Global South" solidarity (1617Z) and Western "fantasies" about Russian-led reconstruction of Ukraine (1624Z) to project an image of strategic endurance.
Diplomatic Dismissal: President Zelenskyy has moved to preemptively delegitimize Putin's rhetoric, stating that "no one believes" Putin's claims of wanting a successful Ukraine (1622Z).
Referendum Refusal: Zelenskyy clarified that Russians are avoiding referendums in occupied territories, likely to counter any RF-led "peace" proposals that involve staged votes (1607Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain high-intensity pressure on Kupyansk and Pokrovsk. The mass UAV wave currently over Russia will trigger a significant Russian retaliatory strike (Missiles/Shaheds) targeting Kyiv or Western Ukrainian energy hubs within the next 6-12 hours.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A Russian breakthrough in the Kupyansk sector, combined with a "Valdai-pretext" strike using high-velocity ballistic systems (Oreshnik), aimed at paralyzing UAF command ahead of the New Year.
Timeline Estimates:
Next 2-4h: Arrival of UAF UAVs over targets in Moscow/Tver/Smolensk; BDA expected via social media.
Next 6-12h: Expected RF "retaliatory" missile launches.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Kupyansk FEBA Status: Urgent requirement for high-resolution ISR or ground truth regarding the specific "difficulty" reported by RF sources. Is the UAF line holding or has a breach occurred?
UAF OP Head Identity: Identify the candidate for Head of the Office of the President to assess potential shifts in Ukraine's negotiating stance.
Crimea Strike BDA: Corroborate "insider" reports of successful strikes in Crimea to determine if RF air defense density in the peninsula has been compromised.
