DIPLOMATIC STRATEGY - US PEACEKEEPERS (MEDIUM): President Zelenskyy confirmed that the deployment of US peacekeepers to Ukraine is a subject of active discussion with the Trump transition team. This is linked to a proposed "phased" security guarantee framework and a monitoring mission to coincide with any potential ceasefire (1550Z, 1557Z, РБК-Україна/Оперативний ЗСУ, MEDIUM).
VALDAI INCIDENT DENIAL (HIGH): President Zelenskyy and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have both refuted Russian claims of a drone strike on Putin’s Valdai residence. Zelenskyy characterized the event as a "fake" and confirmed Ukraine has officially communicated this to US partners to prevent the disruption of negotiations (1540Z, 1604Z, РБК-Україна/Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH).
CONTINUED DEEP STRIKES - MOSCOW (MEDIUM): Russian air defenses reportedly intercepted two additional UAVs targeting Moscow, following earlier reports of strikes. This indicates a sustained, multi-wave aerial effort targeting the Russian capital (1546Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM).
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR - SEVERE WEATHER (HIGH): Severe snowfall and drifts are reported across Ukraine, likely impacting tactical mobility, logistics, and drone operations (1536Z, Patrol Police/Олексій Білошицький, HIGH).
KINETIC ACTIVITY - ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH): A confirmed enemy UAV strike occurred within Zaporizhzhia city limits, maintaining pressure on the southern administrative hub (1605Z, Запорізька ОВА, HIGH).
INTERNAL RF FRICTION (MEDIUM): Two individuals were sentenced to 8 and 5 years for embezzling over 500 million rubles from the RF MoD. Simultaneously, a controversial MVD proposal to recruit foreign nationals into the police force (2027-2029) is drawing criticism from ultra-nationalist Russian sources (1557Z, ТАСС; 1604Z, Alex Parker Returns, MEDIUM).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently dominated by a high-stakes information battle regarding the "Valdai incident" and diplomatic maneuvering ahead of the January 3 summit. Ground operations are increasingly constrained by deteriorating weather (snow/drifts), while the aerial "deep battle" continues with reciprocal drone strikes on Moscow and Zaporizhzhia.
Battlefield Geometry: No significant change in the FEBA reported in this window. Focus remains on the stabilization of the Dobropillya sector (per previous report) and urban defense in Zaporizhzhia.
Weather and Environmental Factors: Heavy snowfall and drifting snow (1536Z) will significantly degrade visibility for ISR and may ground "small infantry group" tactics previously noted in Kupyansk. Logistics will likely transition to tracked vehicles or remain restricted to cleared main supply routes (MSRs).
Control Measures: Zaporizhzhia OVA implemented localized traffic closures following the UAV strike (1554Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions:
Escalation Justification: Despite Ukrainian and ISW denials of the Valdai strike, Russian milbloggers (e.g., Старше Эдды) are actively calling for "sustained strikes" rather than one-off retaliations (1604Z). The RF narrative machine is likely to maintain the "Valdai attack" fiction to justify a massive pre-summit strike.
Domestic Control: The sentencing of MoD officials for embezzlement suggests an ongoing effort by the Kremlin to project accountability amidst high attrition and logistical failures.
Tactical Changes: The shift toward "buggy" and small-unit tactics noted in previous reports is now under extreme pressure from winter weather conditions.
Logistics & Sustainment: RF forces continue to rely on civilian foundations for frontline fundraising (1600Z, Котенок), suggesting persistent gaps in official MoD sustainment for small-unit equipment.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Ukrainian Force Posture:
Strategic Communications: President Zelenskyy is leading a proactive effort to insulate US-Ukraine negotiations from Russian disinformation. The explicit denial of the Valdai strike to the US team aims to preserve the January 3 summit's viability.
Mobilization Logistics: The Ministry of Defence (MoD) has introduced state-funded meals for personnel arriving at TCCs (1536Z). This is a tactical improvement in administrative sustainment and morale for incoming recruits.
Tactical Successes: Successful interdiction of Moscow-bound UAVs continues to force RF to divert Air Defense (AD) assets to the interior.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Russian Disinformation: The primary RF effort is the "Valdai Retaliation" narrative. By framing a fake attack as a "terrorist act," the Kremlin seeks to delegitimize the UAF before the US transition team.
Internal RF Tension: Nationalist channels (Alex Parker Returns) are exploiting an MVD proposal to recruit foreigners as "police" to stir xenophobic sentiment, labeling it a "guaranteed collapse of the state." This highlights a growing rift between the Kremlin's desperate manpower needs and nationalist ideology.
Ukrainian Morale: Reports of the lack of commemorative markings on the restored Hostomel Bridge (1547Z, Бутусов) indicate internal domestic debates regarding the preservation of the war’s early heroic narrative.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will launch a significant retaliatory strike within the next 12-24 hours, utilizing the "Valdai" narrative as a pretext regardless of its factual basis. Targets will likely include energy infrastructure and command centers in Kyiv. Ground activity will remain sluggish due to snow drifts.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the "Valdai" false flag to justify the use of an "Oreshnik" or similar experimental ballistic system against a western-facing logistics hub (e.g., Lviv or Rzeszów-adjacent transit points) to intimidate the "Coalition of the Willing" before Jan 3.
Timeline Estimates:
0-6h: Continued UAV harassment of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro.
Jan 3: Decision point for US/Ukraine on the "Peacekeeper" framework.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
US Transition Team Response: Urgent requirement to monitor US-based sentiment regarding Zelenskyy’s "peacekeeper" and "Valdai fake" statements.
RF Winter Logistics: Assess the readiness of RF units in the Pokrovsk/Dobropillya sector to maintain offensive tempo during the current snowfall.
Moscow UAV BDA: Determine the specific launch points for the current Moscow UAV waves; are they domestic (inside RF) or long-range cross-border?
