STRATEGIC DIPLOMATIC SCHEDULING (HIGH): President Zelenskyy confirmed high-level security meetings with the "Coalition of the Willing" and US advisors scheduled for Jan 3 (Ukraine) and Jan 6 (France). Notably, the Trump transition team is confirmed to participate (Zelenskiy / Official, 1454Z).
MASS EVACUATIONS IN DNIPROPETROVSK (HIGH): Ukrainian authorities have ordered the evacuation of over 40 settlements in the Dnipropetrovsk region. This follows the critical Russian advance toward the 15km perimeter of Zaporizhzhia identified in previous reports (Операция Z, 1447Z).
MARITIME INFRASTRUCTURE ATTACK (MEDIUM): Russian UAVs successfully struck two civilian vessels, resulting in casualties. This marks an escalation in targeting non-military maritime assets to disrupt logistics and grain corridors (ЦАПЛІЄНКО, 1445Z).
TACTICAL PRESSURE IN KUPYANSK (MEDIUM): RF MoD released footage of drone strikes against UAF pickup trucks in Moskovka (NW Kupyansk), indicating active Russian interdiction of Ukrainian rotation and supply lines in this critical sector (ТАСС, 1454Z).
RF HOMELAND AIR THREAT (MEDIUM): A regional UAV threat alert was issued for the entirety of the Lipetsk region (RF), suggesting UAF long-range drone activity or anticipated retaliatory strikes (Игорь Артамонов, 1458Z).
IO ANOMALY ON UVB-76 (LOW): The Russian "buzzer" station (UVB-76) was hijacked or utilized to broadcast Z-themed music and "Swan Lake," a traditional Soviet signal of impending political upheaval or significant state announcements (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1442Z).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently defined by a Russian effort to accelerate territorial gains before the Jan 3 security summit. The battlefield geometry is expanding from the frontline into deep rear areas of Dnipropetrovsk via civil defense measures.
Battlefield Geometry: The "Dobropilsky Salient" and the NW Kupyansk sector (Moskovka) are the primary points of kinetic friction. The RF is utilizing long-range MLRS (Tornado-S) to strike tactical assembly points (PVD) in the Huliaipole direction.
Weather and Environment: No significant impact reported; high UAV activity suggests favorable visibility for drone-corrected artillery and loitering munitions.
Control Measures: The expansion of evacuation zones in Dnipropetrovsk suggests the UAF is preparing for a potential Russian breakthrough or high-intensity urban combat on the approaches to Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Threat Assessment:
Forces & Dispositions: The 33rd Guards Motor Rifle Regiment (RF) has been geolocated and confirmed active in the Dobropilsky salient, indicating a concentration of veteran units for a potential pincer movement (Два майора, 1451Z).
Weapon Systems: RF is increasingly relying on the "Tornado-S" MLRS for precision strikes on Ukrainian points of temporary deployment (PVD), specifically targeting the Huliaipole axis to soften defenses (Colonelcassad, 1442Z).
Adaptation: The shift to targeting civilian shipping with UAVs indicates a broadening of Russian "hybrid" targets to include economic and logistical maritime hubs.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Strategic Posture: UAF leadership is pivoting toward a "Coalition of the Willing" framework, integrating US security advisors into upcoming January planning sessions. This is a clear attempt to institutionalize the 15-year security pact.
Civil Defense: Massive proactive evacuation in Dnipropetrovsk (40+ settlements) indicates a high-confidence assessment of a Russian mechanized push toward the regional border.
Tactical Readiness: Despite Russian drone interdiction in Kupyansk, UAF units remain engaged in the NW sector (Moskovka), though logistics are likely under severe strain.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Psychological Operations: The "Swan Lake" broadcast on RF frequency UVB-76 is likely a dual-purpose move: a Russian IO to intimidate (referencing the 1991 coup) or a Ukrainian/pro-Ukrainian electronic warfare success (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1442Z).
Commemorative Narratives: Pro-Russian channels are heavily promoting the 103rd anniversary of the USSR (Dec 30) to bolster domestic support for territorial "reunification" (Дневник Десантника, 1441Z).
International Signaling: Polish PM Donald Tusk's public support for US security guarantees provides essential diplomatic cover for the "Coalition of the Willing" (РБК-Україна, 1435Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain high-intensity UAV and MLRS pressure on the Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk border to force the UAF to commit its final reserves before the Jan 3 summit.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A Russian mechanized breakthrough from the Dobropilsky salient that bypasses established defensive lines, aimed at cutting the main M-04 highway and isolating UAF groupings in the south.
Timeline:
0-12h: Expected UAF drone strikes on RF logistics (Lipetsk/Belgorod) as evidenced by RF air alerts.
Jan 3: Potential for a massive RF aero-ballistic strike to "welcome" security advisors in Ukraine.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Dnipropetrovsk Evacuation Rationale: Is the evacuation of 40+ settlements triggered by intelligence of a specific Russian "Deep Strike" column or generalized proximity to the 15km Zaporizhzhia threshold?
33rd Guards MRR Strength: Assess the current combat effectiveness and equipment levels of the 33rd Guards in the Dobropilsky salient.
UVB-76 Origins: Verify if the "Swan Lake" broadcast was a result of an external signal override (EW) or an internal RF signal.
Maritime UAV Origin: Identify the launch sites for the UAVs that struck civilian vessels. If launched from the Kinburn Spit, it indicates a renewed focus on the Mykolaiv/Odesa maritime corridor.
