SUMY DRONE DEFENSE SUCCESS (HIGH): The UAF 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBr) successfully repelled a massed 6-hour Russian drone attack in the Sumy region. Utilizing "STING" interceptor drones from "Wild Hornets," the unit downed 22 aerial targets (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 1423Z).
RUSSIAN INFORMATION OPERATION (HIGH): Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZR) warns that Russia initiated a systemic information operation at 1700Z on 29 Dec specifically designed to undermine and disrupt the newly established security agreements between the Presidents of Ukraine and the US (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1410Z).
KUPYANSK OPERATIONAL PRESSURE (MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources report a "highly alarming" situation for Ukrainian forces in the Kupyansk sector, suggesting a potential tactical deterioration or imminent Russian surge (Рыбарь, 1430Z).
RESERVIST MOBILIZATION DECREE (HIGH): Visual evidence confirms Putin has signed a decree calling up military reservists. While framed as "protection of infrastructure," this supports earlier reporting of a significant force generation effort (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, 1432Z).
DIPLOMATIC FRICTION (MEDIUM): Georgia has begun denying entry to Russian citizens based on their place of birth, specifically targeting those born in Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine, signaling a shift in Tbilisi’s border policy (ТАСС, 1433Z).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo remains high, with Russia shifting from purely kinetic maneuvers to a synchronized "hybrid" approach. The battlefield is characterized by a "drone-on-drone" evolution in the north and persistent mechanized pressure in the east.
Battlefield Geometry: The "threat vector" towards Sumy (identified in the previous daily report) has materialized as a massive UAV-led strike package rather than a ground pincer. In the NE, the Kupyansk sector is identified as a critical point of friction.
Weather and Environment: No significant changes; clear skies over Sumy facilitated the 6-hour drone engagement.
Economic Factors: The Ukrainian Hryvnia (UAH) has seen a slight devaluation (17-20 kopecks) against the USD/EUR, likely a market reaction to the sustained infrastructure strikes and mobilization news (РБК-Україна, 1425Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Threat Assessment:
Capabilities & Intentions: The Russian Federation (RF) is utilizing the "Rubikon Centre" for specialized drone operations, focusing on high-frequency FPV and loitering munition strikes to exhaust UAF air defenses (MoD Russia, 1418Z).
Mobilization: The formalization of the reservist call-up (1432Z) suggests the RF is struggling to maintain rear-area security while simultaneously pushing the "15km/20km" proximity narratives near Zaporizhzhia and Sumy.
Information Warfare: The RF is weaponizing historical anniversaries (103rd anniversary of the USSR) and past grievances (2nd anniversary of the Dec 30 Belgorod strikes) to harden domestic resolve and justify further escalation (Colonelcassad, 1422Z; Старше Эддя, 1429Z).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Tactical Success (Sumy): The 47th OMBr's use of interceptor drones (STING) represents a high-efficiency asymmetric response to massed UAV attacks, preserving expensive SAM stocks.
Strategic Counter-IO: The SZR’s proactive identification of the RU "disruption operation" regarding US-UA pacts suggests high-level intelligence penetration of RF planning cycles.
Operational Security: The General Staff continues to integrate tactical SITREPs with visual evidence to maintain public trust while managing expectations in high-pressure sectors like Kupyansk (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, 1409Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Disruption Campaign: The primary RU narrative currently targets the US-UA security framework, attempting to frame it as a benefit only to the "European MIC" and detrimental to European stability (Colonelcassad, 1405Z).
Morale: UAF is countering RU propaganda with retrospective highlights of SBU operational successes throughout 2025 to maintain domestic confidence during the winter offensive (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1427Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue the massed UAV campaign against Sumy and Kharkiv to fix the 47th OMBr and other reserves in the north, while launching a concentrated ground assault in the Kupyansk sector within the next 12-24 hours.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the newly mobilized reservists not for "infrastructure protection," but to rapidly backfill units in the Lyman/Kupyansk axis for a deep pincer movement intended to envelop the Serebryanske Forest grouping.
Timeline: 0-6h: Ongoing IO/Disinformation peak regarding the US-UA pact. 12-24h: Kinetic surge in Kupyansk.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Kupyansk Ground Truth: Urgent requirement for SIGINT/IMINT to verify the "alarming" status reported by Rybar. Is this a localized breakthrough or a collapse of a defensive line?
Interceptor Drone Stockpiles: Assess the current inventory and production rate of STING/Wild Hornet interceptors following the heavy usage (22 targets in 6 hours) in Sumy.
Reservist Deployment: Determine the transit points for the newly mobilized reservists. Movement toward Belgorod/Kursk indicates border security; movement toward Rostov/Donetsk indicates frontline reinforcement.
Georgia Border Policy: Monitor if the denial of entry for Russians from occupied territories leads to a reciprocal diplomatic escalation or affects RF logistics through the Caucasus.
