KINETIC LOSS - LUKYANIVSKE (HIGH): RF Ministry of Defense confirms the capture of Lukyanivske in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, validating earlier Russian claims (Dnevnik Desantnika, 1151Z).
MANDATORY EVACUATION - CHERNIHIV (HIGH): Ukrainian authorities have ordered the mandatory evacuation of 14 border villages in Chernihiv Oblast due to intensifying hostilities (RBK-UA, 1157Z; Operativno ZSU, 1159Z).
STRATEGIC DECREE - MOBILIZATION RESERVE (HIGH): Putin signed a decree calling for special training of the "Mobilization Human Reserve" specifically for the protection of critical infrastructure (Novosti Moskvy, 1149Z; Operativno ZSU, 1150Z).
KINETIC STRIKE - ZAPORIZHZHIA CITY (HIGH): Russian forces conducted fresh strikes on Zaporizhzhia city, resulting in increasing damage to civilian infrastructure (Tsaplienko, 1147Z; Zaporizhzhia OVA, 1151Z).
INFRASTRUCTURE FAILURE - KHERSON (HIGH): Reports indicate that the Kherson Thermal Power Plant (TPP) cannot be restored; authorities are seeking alternative heating/power sources (RBK-UA, 1144Z).
TACTICAL ENGAGEMENT - KUPYANSK (MEDIUM): RF "Zapad" group UAV units claim to be striking UAF elements attempting to maneuver toward Kupyansk (TASS, 1203Z).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a high-intensity Russian push in the South and a corresponding hardening of the Russian rear. The loss of Lukyanivske places Russian forces firmly within the 15km perimeter of Zaporizhzhia city, as previously signaled by RF high command. In the North, the mandatory evacuation in Chernihiv suggests a significant escalation in cross-border kinetic activity or an anticipated expansion of the "Group North" offensive area.
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline in Zaporizhzhia is compressing toward the city limits. In the North, the Chernihiv-Sumy axis is transitioning from a secondary theater of harassment to a potential active front requiring significant civilian displacement.
Infrastructure: The definitive failure of the Kherson TPP creates a localized humanitarian and logistical crisis, likely intended to force UAF resource diversion to civilian sustainment during sub-zero temperatures.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Current Force Dispositions:
Zaporizhzhia Sector: RF forces have consolidated control over Lukyanivske. This confirms the 35th Army's success in bending the defensive line south of Zaporizhzhia city.
Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) Axis: The "Rubikon" drone center has been integrated into General Staff operations, indicating a centralized, high-tech approach to the offensive in this sector (Colonelcassad, 1141Z).
Rear Security: The decree on "Mobilization Human Reserves" (1149Z) is a direct response to UAF deep strike capabilities. By activating this reserve for "critical objects," RF is attempting to free up conventional Rosgvardia or frontline units for maneuver while hardening its domestic infrastructure against UAV/missile threats.
Tactical Adaptations:
Increased reliance on "Zapad" group UAV systems in the Kupyansk sector to disrupt UAF tactical movements (1203Z), shifting from massed artillery to precision attrition to prevent UAF counter-attacks.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Defensive Posture: UAF is conducting a controlled thinning of the civilian population in Chernihiv (1157Z), likely to expand the operational depth for defensive maneuvers and artillery positioning without civilian interference.
Legislative Activity: The Verkhovna Rada has begun preliminary work on election laws (1141Z). While not immediate, this indicates a strategic effort to maintain state legitimacy and prepare for post-conflict governance structures, despite the current kinetic escalation.
Resource Constraints: The loss of the Kherson TPP is a major blow to southern logistics. UAF engineering and civil-military cooperation (CIMIC) units are now prioritized for "alternative" energy solutions to prevent the total evacuation of the Kherson hub.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Demoralization Campaign: Russian influencers (Alex Parker) are aggressively pushing a narrative of Ukrainian abandonment by the US and the futility of resistance, specifically targeting "evaders" and the 100bn reparation plan (1142Z, 1148Z).
RF Narrative Construction: Pro-Russian channels are claiming global protests against Ukrainian "terrorism" (1138Z) to build international justification for their current winter strike campaign.
Internal RF Security: TASS reporting on a "thwarted school terror attack" in Adygea (1155Z) is being used domestically to justify heightened security measures and the mobilization reserve decree.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will utilize the Lukyanivske foothold to launch intensive MLRS and short-range missile strikes into the southern suburbs of Zaporizhzhia within the next 12 hours. In the North, expect a spike in RF SOF activity in the evacuated villages of Chernihiv.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF "Group North" launches a multi-battalion cross-border incursion into Chernihiv or Sumy to exploit the current evacuation chaos, aiming to sever the H07/M02 highways and force a total collapse of the northern defensive screen.
Decision Point: If RF successfully occupies high ground immediately north of Lukyanivske, UAF Command must decide whether to commit the 7th Corps (DShV) from the Pokrovsk sector to prevent a breakthrough into Zaporizhzhia proper.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Chernihiv Evacuation Scope: Confirm if the 14 villages represent the entire planned evacuation zone or if further depth (up to 20-30km) is being cleared.
Mobilization Reserve Scale: Determine the number of personnel being activated under the 1149Z decree. Is this a local (Moscow/Border) or national call-up?
Rubikon Capabilities: Analyze "Rubikon" center output to determine if this signifies a new class of long-range FPV or autonomous loitering munitions on the Pokrovsk axis.
