KINETIC LOSS - BOGUSLAVKA (HIGH): RF Ministry of Defense confirms the 15th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment has captured Boguslavka in the Kharkiv region (MoD Russia, 1126Z).
INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKE - ODESA PORTS (HIGH): Massive Russian UAV wave targeted Odesa port and industrial infrastructure, damaging a civilian vessel and oil storage reservoirs; one casualty reported (Operativno ZSU, 1127Z; ASTRA, 1133Z).
RIVERINE COMBAT - SIVERSKYI DONETS (HIGH): RF forces are attempting to force the Siverskyi Donets river and conducting raids from Siversk toward Dronivka; the UAF 81st Airmobile Brigade is actively engaged in counter-crossing operations (Operativno ZSU, 1106Z).
SUMY BORDER ENGAGEMENT (MEDIUM): RF "Akhmat" Spetsnaz and elements of the 15th Tank Regiment claim the destruction of a Ukrainian CV-90 IFV near Myropillya via FPV drones (Kadyrov_95, 1127Z).
DEEP STRIKE - DONETSK/MANGUSH (MEDIUM): Ukrainian UAVs successfully struck military infrastructure at the Donetsk Airport and an ammunition depot in Mangush (CyberBoroshno, 1107Z).
BORDER SECURITY - LATVIA (HIGH): Latvia has officially completed the construction of its physical border barrier with Russia (DeepState, 1129Z).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has surged in the last 60 minutes, characterized by a shift from strategic signaling (Oreshnik) to localized tactical gains and concentrated infrastructure attrition.
Battlefield Geometry: The loss of Boguslavka (Kharkiv) suggests a widening of the RF offensive north of the Oskil river. In the Siversk sector, the RF attempt to bridge the Siverskyi Donets toward Dronivka threatens to outflank UAF defenses in the Serebryanske Forest from the south.
Weather: Forecasts for the Moscow/Frontline regions indicate freezing temperatures and snow (1120Z), which will likely impede heavy mechanized movement but facilitate infantry raids across frozen ground and small water bodies.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Current Force Dispositions:
Kharkiv/Kupyansk: The 15th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment is the primary maneuver element currently exploiting gaps in the Kharkiv sector.
Sumy Axis: Deployment of Akhmat Spetsnaz and the 15th Tank Regiment to the Myropillya-Yunakivka area confirms a shift from purely informational "diversion" to active kinetic probes using high-density UAS (1127Z).
Odesa Strike Package: Russia utilized a saturation UAV tactic specifically targeting energy logistics (oil reservoirs) and maritime assets, likely intended to degrade UA export capacity and winter fuel reserves.
Tactical Adaptations:
RF is increasingly integrating "Akhmat" UAS operators with conventional tank regiments to conduct "hunter-killer" operations against high-value Western equipment (CV-90) in border areas.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
UAF 81st Airmobile Brigade: Currently holding the line at the Siverskyi Donets. Visual evidence suggests high-intensity drone/artillery work to disrupt RF pontoon and raiding parties.
Deep Strike Capability: UAF remains capable of penetrating saturated AD environments in the Donbas, as evidenced by the strikes on Donetsk Airport and the Mangush depot.
Resource Constraints: Power grid management remains a concern; state regulators expect the continuation of rolling outages through the New Year (RBK-UA, 1119Z), which may impact domestic production and logistics.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
RF Propaganda: Kadyrov and Russian state media are heavily promoting the destruction of "NATO" equipment to counter the narrative of the US-UA security framework.
Domestic Signal: Putin’s meeting with Anna Tsivileva regarding the "Defenders of the Fatherland" fund (1132Z) is a deliberate attempt to project long-term support for veterans and domestic stability amidst high attrition.
Disinformation Alert: Pro-Russian channels (Operația Z) are circulating decontextualized videos aimed at demoralizing Ukrainian civilians by portraying the military as elitist or dismissive of non-combatants (1108Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain pressure on the Siverskyi Donets crossing to force UAF to commit reserves from the Pokrovsk or Lyman sectors. Continued UAV harassment of Odesa and Bryansk (likely UAF response) will persist through the night.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated multi-regiment push from the Boguslavka foothold toward the Oskil river, aiming to isolate UAF groupings in the northeast before the ground fully hardens for the January freeze.
Decision Point: If RF secures a stable bridgehead across the Siverskyi Donets toward Dronivka in the next 12 hours, UAF must decide between a rapid counter-attack or a retrograde from the Serebryanske Forest to avoid encirclement.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Siverskyi Donets Crossing Status: Priority requirement for SAR/IMINT to determine if RF has successfully established a pontoon or if operations remain at the raiding/SOF level.
Odesa Damage Assessment: Confirm the operational status of the civilian vessel struck in Odesa. Was it a grain carrier or a specialized logistics vessel?
Boguslavka Depth: Determine the extent of RF penetration beyond Boguslavka. Are they establishing static defenses or continuing to push west?
