STRATEGIC ESCALATION (CONFIRMED): Russian Ministry of Defense and multiple sources confirm the "Oreshnik" missile system has officially entered "combat duty" in Belarus (0837Z, ASTRA; 0848Z, Alex Parker Returns, HIGH).
ACTIVE AIR THREAT (URGENT): A guided air missile is currently transiting Mykolaiv Oblast toward Bashtanka via Snihurivka. Simultaneous KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) launches are targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast (0902Z-0903Z, UAF Air Force, Mykolaiv Vanek, HIGH).
ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE (CHERNIHIV): Over 75,000 subscribers in Chernihiv Oblast are without power following targeted RF strikes (0855Z, MinEnergo via Operativno ZSU, HIGH).
GRID CLARIFICATION (KYIV): Energy provider DTEK has refuted earlier reports of city-wide emergency shutoffs in Kyiv; while the grid remains under pressure, standard "emergency schedules" are not currently applied across the entire capital (0902Z, RBC-UA, MEDIUM).
PRECISION COUNTER-STRIKE (DONETSK): Ukrainian Special Operations (SBS) conducted a successful massed strike on the Donetsk Airport, destroying a storage and preparation hub for "Shahed" UAVs (0846Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH).
BORDER COMBAT (SUMY/KURSK): Intensive fighting reported near Yunakivka, Andriivka, and Yablunivka as RF forces attempt to establish a "buffer zone" (0836Z, RBC-UA, MEDIUM).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational tempo has shifted toward high-intensity aerial bombardment and strategic posturing. While the ground front in the East remains grinding, the RF is utilizing the Oreshnik deployment in Belarus to exert psychological pressure on Kyiv and the West.
Battlefield Geometry: The focus has expanded to include the Sumy-Kursk border, where RF is attempting to carve out a security corridor. In the South, RF is utilizing tactical aviation to soften targets in Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv.
Infrastructure Status: The energy crisis is now concentrated in the Northern sector (Chernihiv) while the situation in Kyiv has stabilized relative to 0800Z reports, though it remains fragile.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Strategic Posture: The transition of the Oreshnik system to "combat duty" in Belarus is likely intended to deter the implementation of the US-UA security framework.
Tactical Operations: RF is maintaining a "strike-and-fix" strategy. By engaging UAF in the Sumy border region (Yunakivka, etc.), they force the diversion of reserves away from the critical Zaporizhzhia/Pokrovsk axes.
Air Domain: Increased use of guided air missiles (targeting Bashtanka) and KABs (Zaporizhzhia) indicates a sustained effort to degrade logistical nodes and civilian morale ahead of New Year.
Internal Security: FSB activity in Moscow and the Caucasus against the "Batal-Khadzhi" group (0846Z, TASS) suggests heightened internal tension or a crackdown on potential domestic instability.
Territorial Claims: Pro-Russian sources claim advances in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (0902Z, Operatsiya Z). [UNCONFIRMED / LOW CONFIDENCE]; likely a narrative expansion of the Huliaipole/Orikhiv push.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Air Defense / Interdiction: UAF Air Force is actively tracking multiple threats (tactical aviation in the south, UAVs toward Chornomorske).
Offensive Counter-Measures: The strike on Donetsk Airport (Shahed hub) demonstrates a proactive "left-of-launch" strategy to mitigate the volume of UAV attacks on the Ukrainian rear.
Strategic Resilience: President Zelenskyy's messaging (0900Z) continues to emphasize identity and endurance, likely to counter the RF's psychological operations regarding the "Oreshnik" deployment.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Diplomatic Narratives: RF state media is amplifying BILD's commentary on the "insincerity" of the Zelenskyy-Trump summit (0853Z) to sow doubt about the durability of Western support.
Strategic Deterrence: Pro-Russian channels (e.g., Alex Parker) are portraying the Oreshnik deployment as a "game-changer" ("now a completely different map will go").
External Assessments: Estonian Intelligence assessments claiming no RF plan to attack NATO (0841Z) are being used by pro-Russian milbloggers to suggest RF focus is solely on Ukraine.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): RF will continue the KAB/missile bombardment of Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv to disrupt UAF logistics. The "Oreshnik" system will remain in a high-readiness state in Belarus without immediate launch, serving as a permanent strategic blackmail tool.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): RF utilizes the ongoing border fighting near Sumy as a precursor for a larger cross-border mechanized thrust to sever the H-07 highway, while simultaneously launching a conventional Oreshnik strike on a critical logistics hub.
Timeline: The next 6 hours are critical for the Southern sector (Zaporizhzhia/Bashtanka) as air threats are currently inbound.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Bashtanka Impact Assessment: Confirm the target and effect of the guided air missile currently transiting Mykolaiv Oblast.
Dnipropetrovsk FEBA: Urgent verification of any RF cross-border movement into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from the Zaporizhzhia sector.
Chernihiv Grid Recovery: Monitor BDA in Chernihiv to determine if the 75k blackout is due to substation destruction or transmission line failure (impacts repair timeline).
Donetsk Airport BDA: Satellite imagery required to confirm the extent of destruction at the Shahed storage site.
