STRATEGIC MISSILE DEPLOYMENT (CONFIRMED): Multiple Russian and Belarusian sources have released video evidence of the "Oreshnik" missile system on combat duty in Belarus. This confirms the operational status of the IRBM/ICBM variant as a forward-deployed strategic deterrent (0806Z, 0811Z, 0822Z, RBC-UA, WarGonzo, Kotsnews, HIGH).
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE FAILURE (KYIV): Emergency power shutoffs have been implemented across the entire Kyiv metropolitan area. Standard schedules are suspended due to grid instability (0812Z, RBC-UA, HIGH).
ENERGY CRISIS (VYSHHOROD): Substantial localized blackout in Vyshhorod (north of Kyiv) entering its fourth day, indicating severe damage to regional distribution nodes (0828Z, Dva Mayora, MEDIUM).
AERIAL BOMBARDMENT (ZAPORIZHZHIA): RF forces conducted a pre-dawn strike on Zaporizhzhia city using three Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB), causing civilian casualties and damage to residential infrastructure (0826Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH).
TECHNOLOGICAL ADAPTATION (UAF): Ukrainian firm "Ptashka Drones" demonstrated fiber-optic-guided FPV drones with a confirmed range of 50km, representing a significant breakthrough in bypassing RF Electronic Warfare (EW) (0820Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM).
DEFENSE PROCUREMENT: Germany and the UK have finalized a deal for the RCH 155 self-propelled howitzer, signaling long-term Western commitment to modernizing UAF artillery (0805Z, Archangel Spetsnaza, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment is characterized by a "Strategic Fix" in the north and "Tactical Erosion" in the south. The confirmed deployment of the Oreshnik system to Belarus serves to fix UAF and Western attention on the northern flank, while RF ground forces exploit the 102nd TDF withdrawal near Huliaipole. In the rear, the energy sector is reaching a breaking point, specifically in the Kyiv-Vyshhorod cluster.
Key Terrain: The heights around Huliaipole and the logistics hub of Dobropillya remain the critical tactical prizes.
Environmental Factors: Extreme strain on the energy grid during winter temperatures is being weaponized by RF through sustained strikes, now resulting in multi-day outages in the capital region.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities & Intentions: RF is transitioning from "shadow" deployment of strategic assets (Oreshnik) to "open duty," likely to provide a visual deterrent against the recently announced US-UA $100bn security framework.
Tactical Changes: RF is amplifying narratives of "TDF collapse" and "mass desertion" (0825Z, Operatsiya Z, UNCONFIRMED/LOW) to accelerate the psychological degradation of frontline units.
Logistics: Increased focus on KAB strikes (Zaporizhzhia) suggests RF is prioritizing stand-off aerial destruction to soften urban defenses before the 15km proximity is closed.
External Threats: Reports indicate Iran's IRGC is developing bio/chem warheads for long-range ballistic missiles (0816Z, Operativno ZSU, UNCONFIRMED/LOW); if true, this suggests a burgeoning proliferation of WMD-capable tech within the RF-Iranian axis.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
UAF Posture: The Southern Defense Forces report high attrition of RF assets in the last 24h (~400 personnel, 2 tanks, 34 vehicles) (0816Z, Southern Defense Forces, MEDIUM). This indicates that while the line may be bending, UAF is maintaining a high "cost-of-entry" for RF advances.
Technological Edge: The deployment of fiber-optic drones (50km range) provides UAF with a "deep-strike" FPV capability that is immune to current RF jammer configurations.
Resource Constraints: The Kyiv emergency blackouts will likely degrade C2 and logistics coordination in the rear-echelon areas of the Northern and Central sectors.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Regime Change Narrative: Russian state media is amplifying calls from ex-officials (Azarov) for the US to force "regime change" in Kyiv following the alleged Valdai drone strike (0825Z, TASS).
Internal Belarus: The release of 22 prisoners, including those held for "extremism," may be a Belarusian attempt to manage domestic pressure or signal a hollow "thaw" while simultaneously hosting Russian strategic missiles (0804Z, Astra).
Propaganda: RF channels are heavily promoting the "Oreshnik" as an unstoppable force to trigger panic in both the UAF and Western populations.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): RF will maintain the "Oreshnik" posture in Belarus as a strategic umbrella while launching a mechanized assault to close the 15km gap to Zaporizhzhia city. Expect continued systematic strikes on Kyiv’s distribution nodes to force a humanitarian crisis by the New Year.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): RF utilizes the Oreshnik system for a high-altitude "demonstration" or conventional strike on a Western-border logistics hub (e.g., Rzeszów or a major UAF hub in Western Ukraine) to abruptly halt the implementation of the 15-year US-UA security pact.
Timeline: The next 6-12 hours will likely see another wave of Shahed/KAB strikes targeting the Southern and Northern sectors to exploit the degraded energy grid.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Oreshnik Launch Readiness: Continuous ELINT/SIGINT monitoring of the Oreshnik sites in Belarus to detect fueling or telemetry activation.
Kyiv Grid Assessment: BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) required for the specific substations causing the Vyshhorod/Kyiv blackout to estimate repair timelines.
Iranian Warhead Intelligence: Urgent verification of the Iran International report regarding bio/chem warhead development via HUMINT/SIGINT.
Huliaipole FEBA: Confirm if RF has occupied the 102nd TDF's vacated positions or if a "grey zone" remains.
