ZAPORIZHZHIA SECTOR COLLAPSE (CONFIRMED): UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi officially confirmed that the 102nd Territorial Defense Brigade (TDF) withdrew from positions in the Huliaipole direction after failing to withstand RF pressure (0747Z, Shef Hayabusa, HIGH).
NEW OFFENSIVE AXIS (DOBROPILLYA): RF sources claim the "liberation" of Sofiivka and an ongoing assault on Nove Shakhove and Ivanivka, aiming to create a "Dobropillya pocket" west of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad axis (0754Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM).
STRATEGIC ESCALATION: The "Oreshnik" missile system has formally entered combat duty in Belarus; video evidence confirms deployment and training (0742Z, Voenkor Kotenok; 0802Z, Sternenko, HIGH).
ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE: Overnight Shahed strikes confirmed to have hit energy facilities in the Chernihiv and Nizhyn districts (0743Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH).
AERIAL THREATS: Multiple launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting Zaporizhzhia and Sumy regions; new wave of Shahed UAVs detected approaching Odesa from the Black Sea (0737Z, 0753Z, 0758Z, Air Force UA, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Donetsk Sector (Pokrovsk/Dobropillya Axis)
Dobropillya Direction: RF forces have reportedly seized Sofiivka and are storming Nove Shakhove and Ivanivka. This indicates a tactical shift to bypass the heavily fortified Pokrovsk from the west, potentially attempting a wide encirclement ("Dobropillya pocket").
Artemivka/Oktyabrske: RF 57th Special Purpose Company (Spetsnaz) is actively using kamikaze drones to strike UAF Points of Temporary Deployment (PVD) (0802Z, NM DNR, MEDIUM).
Zaporizhzhia Sector
Huliaipole: The status of Huliaipole has shifted from unconfirmed to Degraded/Contested. Syrskyi’s admission regarding the 102nd TDF Brigade confirms a breach in the defensive line. RF forces are likely exploiting this gap to push toward the city’s outer limits.
Aerial Activity: High intensity of KAB strikes reported (0737Z).
Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Sumy)
Chernihiv/Nizhyn: Localized energy grid failures confirmed following successful drone strikes on infrastructure (0743Z).
Sumy: Targeted by KAB strikes (0753Z). No verified ground incursions since previous sitrep, but aerial pressure is mounting.
Enemy Analysis (Threat Assessment)
Tactical Shifts: RF forces are demonstrating increased counter-drone proficiency. The 85th Brigade (Southern Grouping) is successfully deploying snipers with thermal optics to intercept heavy UAF drones (0740Z, Colonelcassad).
Logistics & Sustainment: The "Rubikon Centre" specialists are maintaining a high volume of FPV drone operations, suggesting a stable supply chain for loitering munitions (0802Z, MoD Russia).
Strategic Course of Action: The deployment of the Oreshnik system to Belarus (confirmed as an RS-28 Sarmat variant by some sources, though nomenclature varies) represents a multi-domain threat intended to fix Western attention on the northern flank while RF ground forces push in the south.
Friendly Forces (Blue Force Tracking)
Readiness & Posture: The 46th Airmobile Brigade (DShV) is actively recruiting, utilizing FPV combat footage to bolster morale and replenishment (0736Z). This suggests a need for high-quality replacements following intense operations in the Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia sectors.
Tactical Setbacks: The withdrawal of the 102nd TDF Brigade highlights the strain on TDF units compared to regular maneuver brigades. This gap in the Huliaipole sector requires immediate plugging by operational reserves.
Information Environment (Cognitive Domain)
Escalation Narratives: Pro-RF channels are amplifying claims (attributed to Arestovych) that UAF attempted to strike a "secret nuclear command bunker" rather than just the Valdai residence (0804Z, Alex Parker). UNCONFIRMED / LOW CONFIDENCE. This is likely a disinformation campaign to justify "Oreshnik" deployment or subsequent strikes.
Western Political Friction: RF propaganda is highlighting internal US criticism of political figures' reactions to the Valdai drone claims to frame Western support as fractured (0752Z, RBC-UA).
Predictive Analysis (Future Operations)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): RF will intensify the push toward Dobropillya to sever the northern supply routes into Pokrovsk while exploiting the 102nd TDF withdrawal to gain high ground near Huliaipole.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): RF utilizes the "Oreshnik" system for a "demonstration strike" on a non-urban logistical hub to force a halt to Western long-range aid, coinciding with a mechanized breakthrough toward the Zaporizhzhia city suburbs (now within 15km).
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
102nd TDF FEBA: Determine the new defensive line established following the withdrawal. Is the Huliaipole administrative center now under total RF control?
"Dobropillya Pocket" Verification: Urgent need for SIGINT/ELINT to confirm the scale of the RF force currently engaged near Sofiivka.
Oreshnik Technical Specs: Verify if the system deployed in Belarus is the IRBM variant used on Dnipro or the ICBM "Sarmat" variant as claimed by some channels (Tsaplienko, 0759Z).
