STRATEGIC WEAPON DEPLOYMENT: RF Ministry of Defense reports the "Oreshnik" intermediate-range ballistic missile complex has been placed on combat duty in Belarus (0701Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
ZAPORIZHZHIA SECTOR CLAIM: Pro-RF sources claim the "liberation" of Huliaipole. This is currently presented in a highly stylized propaganda format (0700Z, Voin DV, LOW - UNCONFIRMED).
SUMY AIR DEFENSE SUCCESS: The UAF 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade reports a successful "PPO-special operation" repelling a massed Russian drone attack in the Sumy region (0701Z, 47th OMBr, HIGH).
AERIAL THREAT - ODESA/CHORNOMORSK: Multiple UAV groups are currently transiting from Mykolaiv toward Odesa/Yuzhne and from the Black Sea toward Chornomorsk (0641Z, 0652Z, Air Force UA, HIGH).
KHARKIV TACTICAL STATUS: RF state media claims UAF units near Milove-Khatnje are refusing to conduct counter-attacks; however, regional authorities report only one settlement struck in the past 24 hours, suggesting low kinetic intensity (0656Z, TASS; 0637Z, Kharkiv OVA, MEDIUM).
REGIONAL DEFENSE: Latvia has completed a 280km physical border fence along the Russian frontier (0646Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Zaporizhzhia Sector
Huliaipole Axis: A major claim has emerged regarding the fall of Huliaipole to RF forces. If confirmed, this represents a significant breach of the secondary UAF defensive line and a flanking maneuver toward the wider Zaporizhzhia grouping. Note: This remains unconfirmed by official UAF or independent OSINT sources.
Southern Approaches: Previous reports of RF forces within 15km of Zaporizhzhia city remain the baseline tactical threat.
Odesa/Southern Sector
Port Infrastructure: Active aerial engagement is underway as Shahed-type UAVs target Yuzhne and Chornomorsk. This indicates a continued RF effort to degrade maritime export capability and port logistics.
Northern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv)
Sumy: UAF 47th OMBr has demonstrated high readiness in anti-drone operations, likely utilizing specialized EW or mobile fire groups to intercept the massed drone waves reported earlier this morning.
Kharkiv: The sector remains largely static. RF reports of UAF "refusal to attack" at Milove-Khatnje likely serve as an IO narrative to mask RF's own inability to advance in the Kupiansk-proximate area.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Strategic Intimidation: The deployment of the Oreshnik system to Belarus (0701Z) is a direct escalation in the hybrid domain. It serves to project threat toward NATO's eastern flank and provides a launch platform that complicates Western early-warning assessments.
Tactical Shift: If the Huliaipole claim (0700Z) is verified, it indicates an RF shift from a pure frontal assault on Zaporizhzhia city to a wider operational envelopment targeting key logistics nodes in the east of the oblast.
Global Diversion: RF sources are highlighting "Justice Mission 2025" (Chinese drills near Taiwan) and escalations in Yemen (0702Z, 0658Z). This is intended to signal a multi-polar "overstretch" of Western (specifically US) military resources.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Communication: President Zelenskyy's interview with Fox News (0640Z) emphasizes that Ukraine cannot win or secure its airspace without continued US support. This is likely aimed at influencing the incoming US administration and the implementation of the $100bn reparation/security framework.
Air Defense: Successful specialized interception of UAVs in Sumy (0701Z) indicates effective tactical adaptation by the 47th OMBr to RF's massed drone tactics.
National Morale: Systematic implementation of the national minute of silence (0658Z-0700Z) continues to serve as a primary internal cohesion tool amidst ongoing offensive pressure.
Information environment / disinformation
Psychological Operations: The "Voin DV" report on Huliaipole uses cinematic, retro-Soviet aesthetics to manufacture a sense of inevitable RF victory. This should be treated as a high-priority verification target.
Internal RF Messaging: Domestic directives for Russians to work on January 2nd (0643Z) and the promotion of digital currency (previous report) suggest the Kremlin is tightening domestic controls to sustain a long-term war footing into 2026.
Electoral Interference: Pro-RF "milbloggers" are actively attempting to delegitimize future Ukrainian political processes by claiming Western "foundations" are pre-purchasing political influence (0647Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will conduct localized ground probes near Huliaipole to capitalize on the "liberation" narrative while continuing UAV strikes on Odesa's port infrastructure.
MDCOA: RF utilizes the newly deployed Oreshnik assets in Belarus for a "demonstration" launch or high-profile missile strike to overshadow the US-UA security pact implementation.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
HULIAIPOLE VERIFICATION: Urgent requirement for IMINT/SAR to confirm the status of the Huliaipole FEBA. Does the RF claim of "liberation" correspond to a withdrawal of UAF units or is it a localized SOF raid?
ORESHNIK BASING: Identify the specific location of the Oreshnik complex in Belarus (e.g., proximity to Machulishchy or Luninets) to update threat radii.
ODESA STRIKE BATTLE DAMAGE: Assess impact of UAV strikes on Chornomorsk/Yuzhne port facilities once the current air alert clears.
47th OMBr TACTICS: Evaluate the "special operation" tactics used in Sumy for potential theater-wide distribution to other mobile AD groups.
