DNIPROPETROVSK OFFENSIVE CLAIM: Pro-RF airborne sources report offensive operations near Novopavlivka and Ivanivka (0633Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, LOW).
CASUALTY REPORT - DNIPROPETROVSK: Regional Military Administration (OVA) confirms one civilian casualty following a Russian strike in the Dnipropetrovsk region (0610Z, ASTRA/OVA, HIGH).
VALDAI DISCREPANCY REINFORCED: Local residents continue to report no signs of the 91-drone strike or air defense activity claimed by the RF MoD, suggesting a significant domestic information fabrication (0633Z, Tsapliienko, MEDIUM).
RF COUNTER-UAV TECH: Reports indicate the imminent field testing of an AI-powered automated counter-drone turret in the "SMO zone" (0625Z, Basurin, LOW).
RF ECONOMIC SHIFT: Moscow announced that the "Digital Ruble" will be integrated into budget payments by 2026, likely a response to the internal banking disruptions noted earlier today (0619Z, Moskva News, MEDIUM).
ZAPORIZHZHIA AIR STATUS: Air raid alerts for the Zaporizhzhia region have been cleared as of 0606Z (0606Z, ZОВА, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Dnipropetrovsk Sector (Emergent)
Novopavlivka/Ivanivka Axis: Russian paratrooper units claim to have initiated "offensive actions" in this sector. If confirmed, this indicates an attempt to pressure the western flank of the Donetsk grouping or exploit gaps in the Dnipropetrovsk regional border defenses. UNCONFIRMED - LOW CONFIDENCE.
Rear Area Strikes: Kinetic activity continues with at least one missile/drone strike resulting in civilian casualties (0610Z).
Kupyansk Sector (Update)
Tactical situation remains fluid. UAF counter-attacks continue under adverse weather conditions. RF forces are increasingly reliant on FPV drones to compensate for degraded ISR capabilities.
Zaporizhzhia Sector
While ground activity remains centered on the "15km" proximity threat identified in the previous daily report, the immediate aerial threat has subsided with the 0606Z "All Clear."
Northern/Rear Areas (Valdai/Novgorod)
The narrative conflict regarding the strike on the presidential residence at Valdai has escalated. Pro-RF milbloggers are labeling the (unverified) strike as "state terrorism" (0622Z), while local ground truth continues to suggest no kinetic activity occurred (0633Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Technological Adaptation: The deployment of AI-driven automated turrets (0625Z) represents an RF effort to mitigate UAF's FPV drone superiority. If effective, these systems could complicate UAF tactical reconnaissance and "last-mile" logistics.
Course of Action (COA) Analysis: The RF appears to be shifting focus toward the Dnipropetrovsk regional border (Novopavlivka) while maintaining high-intensity pressure in the South (Zaporizhzhia).
Sustainment: The "Digital Ruble" announcement (0619Z) following reports of internal banking freezes suggests the Kremlin is accelerating digital currency adoption to bypass liquidity crises and maintain military-industrial payments.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Communication: President Zelenskyy has signaled potential for a referendum regarding compromise on the Donbas (via Fox News), likely a move to align with the evolving US-UA security framework and gauge domestic sentiment (0630Z).
Defensive Posture: UAF mobile AD groups successfully cleared the Shahed threat in the Zaporizhzhia/Southern sector as of 0606Z.
Counter-Offensive Operations: Maintenance of the initiative in the Kupyansk sector despite winter conditions remains the primary tactical priority.
Information environment / disinformation
RF Strategic IO: High-level officials (Medvedev) continue to use escalatory, dehumanizing rhetoric to maintain domestic support for the war (0626Z).
Narrative Failure: The "Valdai 91" claim is increasingly exposed as a fabrication, likely intended to either justify an upcoming escalation or mask a complete failure of the AD umbrella over high-value targets.
External Distraction: The declaration of a 90-day State of Emergency in Yemen (0608Z) may be utilized by RF propaganda to divert international attention from the Ukrainian front.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will continue localized assaults in the Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk border region (Novopavlivka) to fix UAF forces and prevent them from reinforcing the Zaporizhzhia axis.
MDCOA: RF utilizes the "Valdai Terrorism" narrative as a pretext for a massive retaliatory strike against decision-making centers in Kyiv or critical energy infrastructure within the next 12 hours.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
DNIPRO SECTOR: Urgent need for SIGINT/IMINT to confirm the presence and scale of RF airborne (VDV) activity near Novopavlivka.
AI TURRET DEPLOYMENT: Identify the specific sector where the Russian AI counter-drone turrets are being field-tested.
DONBAS REFERENDUM: Monitor domestic Ukrainian social media for sentiment shifts following Zelenskyy's "referendum" comments.
YEMEN LINKAGE: Assess if the Yemen SOE involves increased RF activity (e.g., via Wagner or GRU) to further destabilize maritime logistics.
