KUPYANSK COUNTER-ATTACK: Pro-RF sources report UAF is conducting "counter-offensive" operations to retake Kupyansk under cover of adverse weather conditions (0558Z, Operatsiya Z, LOW).
AERIAL THREAT - MYKOLAIV: UAF Air Force confirms Shahed-type UAVs transiting from Kherson Oblast toward Mykolaiv (0600Z, UAF AF, HIGH).
VALDAI DRONE DISCREPANCY: Local residents near Putin's Valdai residence report no audible air defense activity or explosions, contradicting earlier official RF claims of intercepting 91 drones (0538Z, 0600Z, STERNENKO/Operatyvnyi ZSU, MEDIUM).
SLAVYANSK/IZIUM ACTIVATION: RF "Zapad" (Western) Group of Forces reportedly initiated offensive operations in the Slavyansk/Izium sector (0536Z, Kotenok, LOW).
RF INTERNAL BANKING DISRUPTION: Reports indicate Russian banks are increasingly suspending transfers between internal accounts, suggesting potential liquidity or technical stability issues (0544Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Kupyansk Sector: High-intensity combat reported. RF units are utilizing heavy drone reconnaissance and strike assets (0555Z). UAF appears to be exploiting poor visibility/weather to conduct localized counter-attacks, contesting RF control of the city (0558Z).
Slavyansk/Izium Axis: Emergent threat. Claimed offensive activity by the RF "Zapad" group suggests a potential effort to widen the front and pressure the northern flank of the Donbas grouping (0536Z).
Southern Axis (Mykolaiv/Kherson): RF is maintaining pressure via one-way attack (OWA) UAVs. Current tracking shows movement from Kherson toward Mykolaiv (0600Z).
Zaporizhzhia Sector (Baseline): The situation remains critical following yesterday’s 15km proximity claims. While no new ground advances were reported in this 30-minute window, the shift of RF drone assets to defensive postures noted earlier suggests UAF is actively contesting the FEBA.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptations: RF forces in the Kupyansk direction are leaning heavily on FPV drone operators (e.g., "Arkhangel Spetsnaz") to compensate for weather-related visibility issues for traditional ISR (0601Z, 0602Z).
Sustainment & Logistics: The TASS report on banking restrictions (0544Z) may indicate a "silent" economic stressor or a move to prevent capital flight, which could indirectly impact the funding of volunteer units or local military procurement.
Strategic Deception: The significant discrepancy regarding the "91 drones" over Valdai (0538Z) suggests the RF Ministry of Defense may be inflating air defense successes to mask vulnerabilities in high-value asset protection.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Offensive Capability: UAF is demonstrating tactical agility by launching counter-attacks in the Kupyansk sector despite winter conditions, forcing RF forces into a defensive-reactive posture (0558Z).
Psychological Operations (PsyOps): UAF Air Assault Forces (DShV) have launched a targeted campaign highlighting the disparity between RF financial promises (800k rubles) and the high probability of KIA, aiming to degrade RF recruitment and morale (0603Z).
Air Defense: Mobile groups are likely engaged in the Mykolaiv sector to intercept incoming Shaheds (0600Z).
Information environment / disinformation
RF Domestic IO: Dmitry Medvedev's escalatory rhetoric regarding President Zelenskyy (0552Z) and Rybar's focus on Latvian economic decline (0601Z) serve to distract from the tactical stalemate and internal banking issues.
Narrative Contestation: The rapid dissemination of "no-strike" reports from Valdai by Ukrainian and opposition channels effectively challenges the Kremlin’s narrative of a "fortress" AD umbrella.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will continue Shahed strikes on Mykolaiv and Odesa to stress AD systems. In Kupyansk, RF will likely deploy additional drone reserves to halt the UAF counter-push.
MDCOA: RF "Zapad" group activity in Slavyansk/Izium (0536Z) matures into a multi-regiment mechanized assault, threatening to bypass UAF defenses in the Lyman sector.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
KUPYANSK FEBA: Immediate verification of UAF gains within Kupyansk city limits. Is this a raid or a sustained push to re-establish a bridgehead?
BANKING STATUS: Monitor for reports of payroll delays or service outages within the RF military-industrial base following the TASS banking report.
VALDAI STATUS: Request ELINT/SIGINT for any confirmed AD activations in the Novgorod region to resolve the discrepancy between MoD claims and local reports.
IZIUM AXIS: Confirm the composition and size of the "Zapad" group elements active in the Slavyansk/Izium sector.
