ZAPORIZHZHIA CASUALTIES & DAMAGE: Confirmed kinetic strikes on Zaporizhzhia city and surrounding districts (Polohy, Zaporizhzhia) resulted in 1 KIA (46yo male) and 5 WIA (females ages 43-91). Damage reported to 2 multi-story and 4 private residences (0510Z, 0521Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH).
SUMY SECTOR STABILIZATION/COUNTER-IO: UAF Operational Command "Kursk" has released a situation map and official statement confirming Khotin remains under UAF control, explicitly debunking earlier RF claims of significant cross-border advances (0533Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH).
DNIPROPETROVSK DRONE STRIKES: A night UAV strike targeted the Vasylkivska hromada (Synelnykove district), wounding a 67-year-old female and damaging civilian infrastructure (0530Z, 0534Z, Dnipropetrovsk OVA, HIGH).
VREMIVKA SECTOR ACTIVATION: RF 11th Air Army (Vostok Group) launched strikes against UAF positions near Prydorozhne, indicating sustained pressure on the eastern flank of the Zaporizhzhia axis (0530Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM).
ODESA ENERGY STATUS: Emergency power outages continue in Odesa. While life-support systems are functional, the grid remains unstable following recent strikes (0512Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment is characterized by a high-intensity RF aerial campaign targeting civilian hubs and energy infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odesa.
Key Terrain: The defense of the southern approaches to Zaporizhzhia city remains the focal point. In the North, the control of Khotin is vital for preventing RF interdiction of the H07 highway.
Weather: Visual evidence from Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia confirms established winter conditions (snow/sub-zero temperatures), which are complicating logistical throughput and increasing the civilian reliance on a fragile energy grid (0533Z, Vilkul).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities & Intentions: RF is maintaining a "saturation strike" posture. The use of the 11th Air Army near Prydorozhne (0530Z) suggests an intent to expand the Zaporizhzhia offensive eastward into the Vremivka salient to prevent UAF lateral reinforcement.
Tactical Changes: RF drone units on the Zaporizhzhia front are shifting toward defensive/interdiction roles to "foil" UAF localized counter-attacks (0525Z, Dnevnik Desantnika), suggesting UAF is actively contesting the "15km" proximity claim mentioned in previous reports.
Hybrid Operations: RF state media (TASS) and "Z-channels" continue to flood the information space with "domestic noise" (taxi price regulations, labor market forecasts) to distract from the high casualty rates and civilian targeting (0509Z, 0514Z).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Force Posture: UAF forces in the Sumy sector are prioritizing information clarity and territorial integrity. The release of the Khotin control map (0533Z) indicates a coordinated effort to prevent panic in the Northern rear.
Readiness & Resilience: Despite emergency outages in Odesa and localized strikes in Dnipropetrovsk, regional administrations (Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia) report controlled situations and active emergency response.
Tactical Success: UAF appears to be conducting localized counter-attack operations in the Zaporizhzhia sector, forcing RF units to shift drone assets to defensive postures (0525Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Counter-IO Success: The UAF's rapid rebuttal regarding the status of Khotin (0533Z) effectively neutralizes the "Northern Diversion" narrative for the current reporting cycle.
RF Propaganda: Pro-RF channels (Kotsnews, 0506Z) are reverting to historical/romanticized narratives ("Operation Flow" in Kursk) to maintain domestic support as current operations achieve only marginal gains at high costs.
International Noise: Reports of US operations in the Pacific (0522Z) are being utilized by some Russian-language outlets (ASTRA) to dilute the focus on the Ukrainian theater.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue to leverage the "15km proximity to Zaporizhzhia" narrative, supported by intensified KAB and UAV strikes on the city's residential and logistical hubs to force a civilian exodus.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the 11th Air Army's activity in the Vremivka sector (0530Z) to mask a larger mechanized push toward the H15 highway, attempting to isolate the Zaporizhzhia grouping from Donbas reinforcements.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High Probability: Continued UAV strikes targeting the Synelnykove-Zaporizhzhia logistical corridor.
Moderate Probability: UAF localized counter-raids in the Orikhiv sector to push the FEBA (Forward Edge of Battle Area) further from the Zaporizhzhia city limits.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
VREMIVKA SECTOR INTENT: Determine if the strikes at Prydorozhne (0530Z) are preparatory for a ground assault or purely interdiction.
SUMY BORDER STRENGTH: Request satellite/ELINT confirmation of RF "Group North" troop concentrations opposite Khotin to verify if the tactical threat has truly subsided.
ENERGY GRID ATTRITION: Assessment of Odesa's long-term grid stability if emergency outages continue into the next 48 hours.
