KINETIC STRIKE ON ZAPORIZHZHIA: The anticipated KAB/UAV threat has culminated in a confirmed strike on the city, resulting in at least one major fire; air raid alerts have since been cleared (0346Z, 0353Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH).
AERIAL THREAT EXPANSION: Shahed-type UAVs have transited Kharkiv Oblast and are currently on a vector toward Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (0345Z, Air Force UA, HIGH).
RUSSIAN CASUALTY NARRATIVE: RF state media is claiming 10 civilians killed and 70 wounded by UAF strikes over the past week, likely as a domestic justification for increased missile/KAB intensity (0404Z, TASS, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
TACTICAL PROPAGANDA: Pro-Russian sources are disseminating combat footage from Buryatian drone operators (Vostok Group) to support localized fundraising and demonstrate "effective" use of FPV assets (0401Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia):POST-STRIKE RECOVERY. The coordinated strike predicted in the 0335Z SitRep has occurred. Damage to infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia city is confirmed (0346Z). This strike validates the RF intent to degrade the 15km perimeter logistical hubs identified in the previous 24h report.
Northeastern/Central Axis (Dnipropetrovsk/Pavlohrad):THREAT TRANSITION. The focus of the aerial campaign is shifting toward the Pavlohrad district (0345Z). Pavlohrad is a critical rail and logistical node for both the Southern and Donbas fronts; a strike here suggests an intent to interdict UAF reinforcements moving toward either the Zaporizhzhia or Pokrovsk sectors.
Eastern Axis (Lyman/LNR):STABILIZED FRICTION. No new kinetic updates since the loss of Dibrova. Current RF activity is limited to information operations emphasizing UAF attrition and internal Russian morale boosting (0343Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: The RF is maintaining a high operational tempo during the 0300Z-0500Z window, utilizing the "darkness-to-dawn" transition to mask UAV movements. The redirection of UAVs from Kharkiv toward Pavlohrad indicates a flexible command and control (C2) structure capable of re-tasking loitering munitions based on real-time AD gaps.
Morale Operations: The release of specialized "New Year" greetings from groups like the "Baltic Wolves" (0343Z) suggests the Kremlin is attempting to maintain combat cohesion ahead of the 2026 "liquidation" timelines previously set by regional commanders.
Hybrid Maneuver: Russian MFA spokesperson Zakharova is amplifying highly editorialized narratives (0402Z), likely to counter the diplomatic momentum of the recently announced US-UA 15-year security framework.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense (AD): Units were active over Zaporizhzhia and are currently tracking threats in the Pavlohrad vector. While alerts in Zaporizhzhia have been cleared (0353Z), the confirmed impact indicates that the saturation tactic (KABs + UAVs) is partially successful in bypassing local AD screens.
Civil Defense: Emergency services are engaged in firefighting and search-and-rescue in Zaporizhzhia (0353Z).
Information environment / disinformation
"Victim" Narrative: The TASS report (0404Z) regarding RF civilian casualties is a classic counter-IO tactic. By framing the UAF as the primary aggressor against civilians, the RF MoD seeks to dilute international condemnation of their own strikes on Zaporizhzhia and other urban centers.
Internal Crackdown: The narrative attack on Russian cultural figures (Gudkov) for cooperating with Yandex (0400Z) highlights the ongoing "securitization" of the Russian domestic tech and media space to ensure total alignment with the war effort.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Continued UAV probing of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast AD network, specifically targeting Pavlohrad's logistical infrastructure to disrupt UAF movement toward the Orikhiv/Zaporizhzhia front.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): A secondary wave of cruise missiles or ballistic assets timed to strike Zaporizhzhia while emergency responders are still on-site (double-tap strike), leveraging the "clear" alert status to catch personnel in the open.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Zaporizhzhia Target Identification: (CRITICAL) Determine if the "fire" in Zaporizhzhia (0353Z) is at a military/logistical site or a civilian utility; this determines if the RF is targeting UAF sustainment or pursuing a terror-bombing strategy.
Pavlohrad Vector: (HIGH) Monitor the transit of the Kharkiv-based UAVs (0345Z) to identify if they are part of a larger swarm or a localized reconnaissance mission.
RF Rear Hardening: (MEDIUM) Cross-reference the 1528th AA Regiment's high activity (Daily Report) with recent UAF deep-strike capability to determine if RF expects a massive retaliatory strike following the Zaporizhzhia impact.
