ZAPORIZHZHIA KAB STRIKE: Guided aerial bomb (KAB) launches confirmed targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast; projectiles currently on a direct vector to the city (0325Z, 0328Z, Air Force, HIGH).
SOUTHERN UAV VECTOR: A group of Shahed-type UAVs is tracking from the south toward Zaporizhzhia (0306Z, Air Force, HIGH).
RF ELECTION HYBRID THREAT: FM Lavrov has publicly demanded the inclusion of "Ukrainians in Russia" in future presidential elections, signaling a new political destabilization effort (0324Z, RBC-UA, MEDIUM).
LNR ATTRITION NARRATIVE: RF state media claims UAF personnel losses in the LNR sector reached 17,000 for December (0315Z, TASS, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
VDV COHESION OPS: Pro-Russian airborne channels are emphasizing internal "brotherhood," likely to bolster morale ahead of projected offensive operations (0331Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia):KINETIC ESCALATION. This sector has transitioned from a high-alert state to active engagement. The simultaneous approach of UAVs from the south (0306Z) and KABs from the tactical aviation launch points (0325Z) suggests a coordinated "hammer and anvil" strike intended to saturate local air defense (AD) and degrade the defensive belt protecting the 15km city perimeter.
Eastern Axis (LNR/Lyman):HIGH-INTENSITY GRIND. Following the loss of Dibrova (Ref: Daily Report), the RF is using attrition-heavy messaging (0315Z) to project dominance. The claim of 17k UAF casualties, while unconfirmed and likely inflated, indicates the RF MoD is framing this sector as the primary "meat grinder" to force UAF withdrawal from the Serebryanske Forest.
Northeastern Axis (Kharkiv):STABILIZED THREAT. No new kinetic reports following the 0253Z UAV transit through Lyubotyn. This may indicate the UAVs have either been intercepted or have transitioned to low-altitude "dark" flight paths to evade detection south of the city.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation (Air): The RF is increasingly integrating KABs with UAV swarms in the Zaporizhzhia sector. By using slow-moving UAVs to "fix" AD radars, they create windows for high-velocity KABs to strike static fortifications or logistics hubs with high destructive yield.
Hybrid Maneuver: Lavrov’s 0324Z statement regarding election participation is a classic hybrid warfare tactic. It aims to create a pretext for "protecting the rights" of Ukrainians in occupied or RF territories, likely to be used as a bargaining chip or a justification for continued territorial expansion.
Domestic Posture: Official New Year messaging from the RF MVD (0332Z) targeting "2026" personnel reflects a long-term commitment to the occupation and domestic security, despite high tactical activity on the front.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Posture: UAF AD units in the Zaporizhzhia region are in active engagement status. The high tempo of Air Force alerts (0306Z, 0325Z, 0328Z) confirms that early warning systems are functional, though President Zelenskyy’s previous appeal (0241Z) suggests interceptor magazine depth is a critical concern.
Information Counter-Measures: UAF-aligned media is highlighting the absurdity of RF political demands (0324Z) to maintain domestic resolve against hybrid pressure.
Information environment / disinformation
Casualty Inflation: The Marochko/TASS report (0315Z) of 17,000 casualties is assessed as a psychological operation (PSYOP) intended to demoralize UAF reserves currently being allocated to the Lyman sector.
Stability Projection: Russian domestic media continues to prioritize seasonal greetings (0332Z) to mask the intensity of the winter offensive from the general RF populace.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Continued KAB/UAV saturation strikes on Zaporizhzhia to facilitate a ground-based "reconnaissance-in-force" toward the southern suburbs, testing the 15km defensive line.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): A sudden shift in aerial focus from Zaporizhzhia to the Dnipro River crossings or the ZNPP supply corridor, leveraging the current AD saturation to strike critical infrastructure while magazines are depleted.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Zaporizhzhia BDA: (CRITICAL) Immediate battle damage assessment (BDA) required following the KAB strikes (0328Z) to determine if command nodes or AD batteries were compromised.
Lyman FEBA: (HIGH) Ground truth verification in the LNR/Lyman sector to assess the validity of RF attrition claims and the stability of the Serebryanske Forest lines.
UAV Identification: (MEDIUM) Identify the specific launch points for the UAVs approaching Zaporizhzhia from the south (0306Z) to determine if they are ship-launched or based in occupied Crimea/Melitopol.
