UAV THREAT EXPANSION: Strike UAV (Shahed-type) groups have entered Kirovohrad (South) and Mykolaiv (North/East) Oblasts, moving toward central Ukraine (Air Force ZSU, 2009Z, 2029Z; HIGH).
SENIOR OFFICER LOSS: Maj. Mykola Shevchenko, Commander of the 111th Territorial Defense (TrO) Brigade, was reportedly killed in the Krasnolymansk (Lyman) sector (Colonelcassad, 2020Z; MEDIUM).
ANTI-CORRUPTION PROGRESS: NABU has released details identifying specific Members of Parliament (MPs) implicated in the Verkhovna Rada bribery scheme (РБК-Україна, 2027Z; HIGH).
RF TACTICAL LOGISTICS ADAPTATION: Frontline intelligence indicates RF forces have shifted nearly all frontline logistics and personnel rotations to high-speed light vehicles (buggies, ATVs, motorcycles) to counter constant UAF drone surveillance (Снп СпН, 0844Z; HIGH).
SOLEDAR SECTOR ATTRITION: RF "Peresvet" Strike Detachment is utilizing heavy FPV drone suppression to expand control near Vasyukivka and Pazeno, targeting UAF defensive nodes (Снп СпН, 0855Z; MEDIUM).
UAF EW SUCCESS: The 310th Separate Electronic Warfare (REB) Battalion successfully neutralized several Russian reconnaissance/strike UAVs, demonstrating localized counter-UAS effectiveness (Оперативний ЗСУ, 2020Z; HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Kirovohrad/Mykolaiv/Zaporizhzhia):
The air threat has localized into two primary corridors: North/East Mykolaiv and Southern Kirovohrad. This suggests a multi-directional approach to overwhelm air defenses in the Dnipro-Kryvyi Rih interior.
No significant changes to the Huliaipole FEBA since 2005Z, though RF ground pressure remains constant.
Eastern Axis (Lyman/Donbas):
Lyman (Krasnolymansk): High-intensity combat. The loss of a battalion-level commander (111th TrO) indicates RF focus on targeting UAF command and control (C2) elements in the Serebryanske Forest/Torske salient.
Soledar/Siversk: RF forces are employing "attrition by drone" tactics. RF claims to have captured Vasyukivka and is currently engaging in Pazeno and surrounding tree lines. RF assault methodology has shifted to total FPV suppression of "any suspicious signatures" prior to infantry movement.
Rear Areas:
Russian domestic security is facing friction as "Storm Z" veterans return; reports of violent crime (Ulyanovsk) suggest potential long-term stability issues within the RF rear.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
UAV Doctrine Evolution: The RF "Peresvet" Strike Detachment has fully transitioned from "Mavic-based" reconnaissance to a dedicated strike formation. They are now employing "Hunter-Killer" teams along UAF supply routes, forcing UAF to adopt hardened "refuges" for logistics (Снп СпН, 1135Z).
Logistical Hardening: RF has identified that "Bukhanka" (vans) and "Patriot" SUVs are too vulnerable. Expect increased RF procurement of Chinese-manufactured and improvised high-speed buggies for the next phase of winter operations.
Lyman Offensive: The killing of Maj. Shevchenko suggests RF may be preparing for a more significant push toward Zarichne by decapitating local tactical leadership.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Electronic Warfare: UAF 310th REB Battalion remains a critical asset in the Dnipro/Southern sector, successfully degrading RF drone efficacy. Continued investment in localized EW is necessary to counter the RF "Peresvet" tactical shift.
Anti-Corruption: The NABU operation in the Rada is being framed as a vital step in maintaining institutional integrity, particularly as international security framework negotiations (US-UA pact) proceed.
Information environment / disinformation
Psychological Operations: RF mil-bloggers (Colonelcassad, Снп СпН) are increasingly focusing on "human interest" stories of RF volunteers (e.g., Danil, MGU student) to boost domestic morale while simultaneously reporting on high-profile UAF casualties to demoralize the Ukrainian rear.
Geopolitical Narratives: Estonian intelligence assessments regarding RF threats to NATO are being utilized to maintain the urgency of Western military aid.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued saturation of central Ukraine with Shahed UAVs. Likely kinetic follow-up strike in the Lyman sector to capitalize on the loss of 111th TrO leadership.
MDCOA: RF may attempt a synchronized UAV/Ballistic missile strike on the Verkhovna Rada or other government buildings in Kyiv, leveraging the current political "retaliation" rhetoric.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Lyman FEBA: Confirm if 111th TrO lines have held following the commander's loss or if RF has achieved a tactical breach near Dibrova.
UAV Launch Sites: Identify new launch coordinates for the Shahed groups currently transiting Mykolaiv to determine if launch sites have moved closer to the Dnipro River.
RF Buggy Logistics: Monitor RF rail and road shipments for surges in ATV/buggy deliveries to the Vostok/Dnipro groups.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The operational tempo is increasing in the Lyman and Soledar sectors. The air domain is currently dominated by a sustained UAV campaign targeting the Ukrainian interior.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: RF is professionalizing its drone units into "Strike Detachments" that operate independently of traditional artillery cycles. Their logistical shift to high-speed buggies indicates an adaptation to the "transparent battlefield" created by UAF drone dominance.
FRIENDLY FORCES: UAF is maintaining defensive cohesion through superior EW and hardened C2, but the loss of senior tactical leadership in the East is a significant concern for sector stability.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: The narrative is split between RF "heroism" and domestic criminal fallout from the war, while Ukraine focuses on internal governance and international security guarantees.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: The current UAV wave is likely a "shaping" operation for a larger New Year's Eve kinetic event. The Lyman sector is the most likely area for an RF tactical breakthrough attempt in the next 24 hours.
