THREAT OF "NON-DIPLOMATIC" RETALIATION: The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev have explicitly stated that the response to the Valdai residence drone attack will be "non-diplomatic," with Medvedev issuing direct threats against President Zelenskyy’s life (Colonelcassad, 1941Z; ASTRA, 1939Z; HIGH).
NEW YEAR’S EVE STRIKE PREPARATIONS: Intelligence indicators suggest the Russian Federation (RF) is preparing a massed combined strike for New Year’s Eve, a recurring seasonal pattern of escalation (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 1946Z; MEDIUM).
UAV MANEUVER SOUTH OF KRYVYI RIH: Approximately 10 Shahed-type UAVs are currently transiting northwest, positioned south of Kryvyi Rih (Air Force ZSU, 1944Z; HIGH).
HULIAIPOLE COMBAT CONFIRMED: Geolocation-capable footage confirms active engagements in the Huliaipole sector under snowy conditions, corroborating earlier reports of increased tactical friction in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Воин DV, 2000Z; HIGH).
INTERNAL ANTI-CORRUPTION OPERATIONS: The National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) has reportedly exposed a bribery scheme involving Members of Parliament (MPs) within the Verkhovna Rada (РБК-Україна, 1946Z; HIGH).
ENERGY SECTOR LEADERSHIP SHIFT: Rostyslav Shurma has been dismissed from the supervisory board of Naftogaz, indicating a reorganization of state energy oversight (РБК-Україна, 1958Z; HIGH).
REINFORCED COMMAND INFRASTRUCTURE: UAF 225th Separate Assault Regiment (OShP) has publicized a sophisticated, hardened tactical-operational command center, demonstrating resilient C2 capabilities (Николаевский Ванёк, 1943Z; HIGH).
TRUMP VALDAI STANCE: Unconfirmed reports quoting Donald Trump suggest he has expressed personal anger regarding the Valdai attack, aligning with earlier reports of his decision to block Tomahawk transfers (НгП раZVедка, 2002Z; LOW).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
Huliaipole: Combat is active. Footaged evidence shows localized skirmishes. While RF claims proximity to Zaporizhzhia city, the UAF is utilizing hardened C2 nodes (225th OShP) to maintain defensive cohesion. Air raid alerts were recently cleared in the region, but ground pressure remains high.
Kryvyi Rih/Dnipropetrovsk: Serving as a primary transit corridor for loitering munitions. Current Shahed flight paths suggest targets in the central or western rear.
Eastern Axis (Donbas):
Pokrovsk Direction: RF "Two Majors" charitable foundation is actively fundraising for "Repair and Evacuation Groups" in this sector, indicating high RF equipment attrition and a focus on sustainment to maintain offensive tempo (Два майора, 1950Z).
Rear Areas:
Kyiv/Government: Under heightened alert following RF political rhetoric signaling "retaliation" against leadership targets.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Kinetic Escalation: The synchronization of RF MFA "non-diplomatic response" rhetoric with mil-blogger reports of "orders being given" (Alex Parker Returns, 1959Z) suggests a high-probability missile or Oreshnik-class deployment in the 12-24h window.
Sustainment: RF forces in the Pokrovsk sector are increasingly reliant on non-state funding for logistical and repair capabilities, suggesting a strain on formal MoD sustainment pipelines for specialized units.
Tactical Adaptations: RF neofascist units (e.g., "Rusich") are reportedly boycotting the "MAX" messenger due to surveillance concerns, indicating friction within the RF irregular force structure regarding C2 security (ASTRA, 1959Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
C2 Resilience: The 225th OShP's hardened command facility suggests a shift toward deep-subsurface or reinforced tactical centers to mitigate the threat of high-precision RF strikes on command nodes.
Institutional Integrity: The NABU operation in the Verkhovna Rada and the Naftogaz board changes indicate ongoing internal pressure to maintain transparency and governance standards during the high-intensity phase of the conflict.
Information environment / disinformation
"Retaliation" Narrative: The RF state apparatus is saturating the information space with the "Valdai" narrative to justify a potential breach of previous escalation thresholds.
Regional Destabilization: RF channels are actively promoting narratives of Polish-German friction to undermine Western security alignment (Два майора, 1959Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued Shahed strikes targeting infrastructure in the Kryvyi Rih and central Ukraine sectors. High-intensity artillery and localized ground assaults in Huliaipole and Pokrovsk.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A massed "retaliatory" strike involving Iskander-M, Kh-101, or experimental ballistic assets (Oreshnik) targeting the government quarter in Kyiv or energy hubs, potentially launched tonight to preempt New Year's Eve festivities.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
RF Retaliation Timing: Identify any surge in Tu-95MS or Tu-160 activity at Engels/Olenya airbases.
Huliaipole FEBA: Clarify the exact line of contact south of Huliaipole following the latest snowy engagements.
Internal Friction: Monitor RF irregular units' communication shifts following the "MAX" messenger boycott for potential C2 vulnerabilities.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The operational environment is currently balanced between RF tactical advances in the Donbas/Zaporizhzhia and a brewing strategic escalation. The "Valdai incident" has become the primary casus belli for Russian rhetoric, potentially marking a transition to more aggressive targeting profiles.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: The RF is signaling a move away from "diplomatic" constraints. The focus on Pokrovsk sustainment and Huliaipole ground combat suggests they are attempting to collapse the southern defensive flank while simultaneously threatening the capital with high-yield assets.
FRIENDLY FORCES: UAF is demonstrating high tactical resilience through hardened infrastructure but faces political challenges with internal corruption investigations. Defensive posture is focused on absorbing the current UAV wave and preparing for a larger missile event.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: Russia is successfully leveraging the Valdai attack to build domestic and international "justification" for escalation, while simultaneously attempting to fragment the Polish-German-Ukrainian support bloc.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: Expect a kinetic spike within 24 hours. The probability of a significant "retaliatory" strike on Kyiv has risen to HIGH (80%) based on coordinated MFA and Security Council statements.
