THREAT ESCALATION (KYIV): Intelligence reports indicate a high probability of a Russian missile strike targeting government buildings in Kyiv ("Bankova"), framed as a "retaliation" for the alleged Valdai drone incident (Два майора, 1635Z; Рыбарь, 1636Z; MEDIUM).
STRATEGIC WEAPONS NARRATIVE: Russian-aligned sources are now framing the "Oreshnik" missile system as a security guarantee for Belarus, indicating a further integration of strategic threats into the Union State framework (Басурин о главном, 1639Z; MEDIUM).
DIPLOMATIC COUNTER-IO: President Zelenskyy held high-level calls with the Presidents of Latvia and Finland to synchronize data regarding meetings with US President-elect Trump and to preemptively counter Russian "fakes" designed to disrupt diplomacy (Zelenskiy / Official, 1650Z, 1704Z; HIGH).
TACTICAL SUCCESS (KOSTIANTYNIVKA): Ukrainian reconnaissance forces successfully engaged and neutralized Russian infantry at close range in the Kostiantynivka sector; Russian troops reportedly mistook UAF forces for their own, indicating significant command-and-control (C2) confusion on the RF side (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 1641Z; HIGH).
LOGISTICS DEFENSE: Infrastructure Minister Kuleba announced a comprehensive defense strategy for Ukrzaliznytsia (Ukrainian Railways) to counter increasing deep-strike threats against rail nodes (РБК-Україна, 1702Z; HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Eastern Axis (Donbas):
Kostiantynivka: Combat remains fluid and high-intensity. Tactical-level engagements (recon ambushes) confirm that Russian forces are struggling with identification friend-or-foe (IFF) and operational coordination within the contested urban/semi-urban zones.
Pokrovsk Direction: UNCONFIRMED reports of military activity in Rozy Luxemburg (Novoye Shakhovo). If confirmed, this suggests a continued Russian attempt to bypass the primary Pokrovsk defensive belt from the south (Сливочный каприз, 1647Z; LOW).
Southern Axis:
Zaporizhzhia: Russian forces have launched repeated waves of KAB (guided aerial bombs) strikes. This follows the 1500Z Daily Report's warning of a "15km" proximity threat to Zaporizhzhia City (Air Force UA, 1635Z; HIGH).
Rear/Deep Strike:
Pavlohrad: UAVs geolocated moving toward Pavlohrad, a critical rail and logistics hub for the entire Donbas front (Air Force UA, 1646Z; MEDIUM).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action - Strategic Retaliation: The Kremlin is intensifying its rhetoric regarding the "Valdai Incident." By signaling a strike on "Bankova" (the Presidential Office), the RF aims to achieve a symbolic decapitation strike or force UAF leadership into hardened bunkers to disrupt wartime administration.
Tactical Adaptation: Continued reliance on FPV drone operators from the "Vostok" grouping (specifically units from Buryatia) targeting logistics and soft-skinned vehicles in the Southern sector (Colonelcassad, 1704Z).
Belarusian Integration: The explicit mention of "Oreshnik" protecting Belarus (1639Z) suggests that any future use of this system may be launched from or justified by the defense of Belarusian territory, complicating UAF/NATO counter-strike calculations.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Multi-Domain Defense: UAF is prioritizing the "hardening" of Ukrzaliznytsia (railways) through a mix of mobile fire groups and likely internal EW, as rail remains the single point of failure for Donbas logistics (Kuleba via РБК-Україна, 1702Z).
Diplomatic Maneuver: Zelenskyy’s coordination with Finland and Latvia (1704Z) is a direct effort to provide "real information" to Western intelligence services, countering the Ushakov/Putin narrative of the Trump phone call that claimed Trump was "shocked" by Ukrainian actions.
Information environment / disinformation
"The Bankova Strike" Narrative: Russian milbloggers (Rybari, Poddubny) are aggressively pushing the necessity of striking the Ukrainian government quarter. This serves both as domestic propaganda to satisfy hardliners and as psychological warfare against Kyiv residents.
European "Sabotage" Narrative: RF state-affiliated sources (Poddubny, 1648Z) are claiming European elites are pushing Ukraine to "break the dishes" with the Trump administration. This is a classic "wedge-driving" IO designed to alienate the incoming US administration from European allies.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): A combined missile and Shahed-type UAV attack on Kyiv during the overnight hours, specifically targeting the Pecherskyi District (Government Quarter) and energy infrastructure in Pavlohrad.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Use of a high-yield ballistic asset (potential Oreshnik or Iskander-M salvo) against a symbolic target in Kyiv to "verify" the Kremlin's red lines following the Valdai claims.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Verification of Rozy Luxemburg: Confirm the presence of RF mechanized units in the Novoye Shakhovo area to determine if the Pokrovsk southern flank is being bypassed.
Kyiv Air Defense Readiness: Assess the current interceptor density around the government quarter in light of the specific "Bankova" threat.
Oreshnik Staging: Monitor for movement of specialized TELs (Transporter Erector Launchers) in the Kapustin Yar area or within Belarus.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The operational focus is shifting from the tactical losses in the Lyman sector (Dibrova) to a strategic threat against the Ukrainian capital. Russia is leveraging unconfirmed claims of a Valdai residence attack to justify a transition to "unrestricted" strikes on political C2.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: The RF is experiencing tactical friction (Kostiantynivka IFF failure) but maintains strategic momentum through aerial bombardment (KABs) and psychological operations.
FRIENDLY FORCES: Ukraine is effectively using its "diplomatic shield" (Latvia/Finland) to prevent Russian narratives from taking root in the US policy transition team while simultaneously hardening its rail logistics.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: The narrative has evolved from "battlefield gains" to "existential retaliation." Russia is attempting to define the terms of the Trump-Putin dialogue by painting Ukraine as a rogue actor.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: The 1635Z warning of a strike on Kyiv is assessed as HIGH RISK. Units in the capital and logistics hubs (Pavlohrad) must maintain maximum alert levels.
