DIPLOMATIC ESCALATION: Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov confirmed a phone call between Putin and President-elect Trump; Russia claims Trump expressed "shock" over an alleged Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's Valdai residence, while Zelenskyy officially dismissed the attack as a "lie" (TASS, 1614Z; Север.Реалии, 1627Z; MEDIUM).
FORCE GENERATION SHIFT: Vladimir Putin signed a decree implementing year-round military conscription (replacing the seasonal cycle) with a 2026 target of 261,000 recruits (ТАСС, 1611Z; Новости Москвы, 1614Z; HIGH).
CONTESTED URBAN COMBAT: UAF High Command explicitly denied Russian claims of control over parts of Kostiantynivka, labeling the narrative a "myth" (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 1607Z; HIGH).
ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE: Ukrenergo announced nationwide hourly power outages (GPO) for tomorrow, Dec 30, following sustained pressure on the grid (РБК-Україна, 1606Z; HIGH).
EUROPEAN COORDINATION: President Zelenskyy held consultations with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to brief him on the Florida summit results (Zelenskiy / Official, 1614Z; HIGH).
LEGAL HARDENING: Putin signed a law prohibiting the enforcement of foreign court decisions (targeting the ICC) within the Russian Federation (РБК-Україна, 1631Z; HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Eastern Axis (Donbas):
Kostiantynivka: Currently the focus of a major Russian Information Operation (IO). While RF sources claim a foothold, UAF confirms defensive lines hold. This sector is critical for protecting the southern flank of the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk defense zone.
Slavyansk Direction: Combat activity geolocated near Zakotne (Colonelcassad, 1620Z). RF appears to be attempting to widen the Lyman-Slovyansk salient following the loss of Dibrova reported in the previous 24h.
Southern Axis:
Crimea: Active operations by the "Sablin Battalion" reported (1006Z), likely conducting rear-area security or training in preparation for deployment to the Zaporizhzhia front.
Strategic Rear (Ukraine):
Grid stability is degrading; the 1606Z Ukrenergo report indicates that despite private EW initiatives (Daily Report, 1500Z), the system requires scheduled load-shedding to prevent total collapse.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action - Force Generation: The move to year-round conscription is a strategic shift. It suggests the RF is moving away from "special" mobilization waves toward a permanent, high-volume pipeline to sustain a long-term war of attrition into 2026.
Course of Action - Hybrid Diplomacy: The Kremlin is using the "Valdai Incident" (UNCONFIRMED/LOW CONFIDENCE) as a wedge to disrupt the new US administration's relationship with Kyiv. By claiming Trump was "shocked" and "thanked God" for not providing Tomahawks (TASS, 1621Z), the RF is attempting to codify a "terrorist" label for the UAF in the eyes of the incoming US leadership.
Tactical Activity: Increased use of "Unmanned Systems Forces" (UAV/Lancet/FPV) is reported by the RF MoD (1633Z), specifically targeting UAF logistics nodes and armored assets to prevent reinforcing the Kostiantynivka and Oskil lines.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Communication: Zelenskyy's consideration of a peace referendum (РБК-Україна, 1623Z) indicates a pivot toward seeking public legitimacy for any potential negotiated settlement under the US-Ukraine security framework.
Defense Posture: UAF remains in a "hold and attrit" phase. The denial of the Kostiantynivka breakthrough suggests localized counter-attacks or successful static defense in high-density urban terrain.
Diplomatic Maneuver: By briefing Chancellor Merz (1614Z), Kyiv is ensuring that European "strategic autonomy" remains aligned with the US-UA framework, preventing a bilateral US-RF deal that excludes European security interests.
Information environment / disinformation
"The Valdai Pretext": (LOW CONFIDENCE) RF continues to push the narrative of a 91-drone "assassination attempt." There is still no independent visual verification of damage at the Novgorod residence. Zelenskyy's flat denial (1627Z) characterizes this as a "false flag" or manufactured pretext.
Trump Call Narrative: Russian sources (Ushakov via TASS) are providing the only detailed readouts of the Trump-Putin call. These reports are highly likely to be skewed to present Russia as the "reasonable" party and Ukraine as the "unpredictable" aggressor.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): RF will intensify missile/KAB strikes tonight, likely targeting "Command and Control" nodes in Kyiv or the government quarter, using the Valdai incident as the stated justification.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF mechanized breakthrough in the Kostiantynivka sector, capitalizing on the current "fog of war" surrounding the control of the city, aimed at cutting the H-32 highway.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Verifiable Imagery (Valdai): Urgent need for high-res SAR/Satellite imagery of the Valdai residence (Novgorod Oblast) to confirm if a strike occurred or if this is a pure IO.
Conscription Logistics: Determine if the 261,000 recruits for 2026 will be trained in Belarus or within the RF, indicating potential new northern front staging.
Kostiantynivka FEBA: Precise geolocated confirmation of the frontline within the city limits to verify UAF's "myth" claim.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The operational environment is dominated by the fallout of the Trump-Putin call. Russia is aggressively framing Ukraine as a "terrorist actor" to neutralize the impact of the newly signed US-UA security pact.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: Transitioning to year-round conscription indicates the RF MoD is preparing for a conflict duration that exceeds 2026, regardless of diplomatic tracks.
FRIENDLY FORCES: Ukraine is leveraging European allies (Germany) to hedge against potential US policy shifts while preparing the domestic population for difficult political choices (referendum).
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: The conflict has shifted to a "narrative-first" phase where battlefield events (or the lack thereof, in Valdai's case) are immediately weaponized for diplomatic leverage.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: The risk of a massed strike on Kyiv remains CRITICAL. The scheduled power outages for Dec 30 will exacerbate the impact of any kinetic strikes on the energy sector.
