DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT: The White House confirms a "positive" telephone conversation between President-elect Trump and Vladimir Putin regarding a peace settlement in Ukraine (TASS, 1556Z; STERNENKO, 1600Z; HIGH).
KYIV STRIKE WARNING: President Zelenskyy officially characterized the Russian "Valdai drone" narrative as a "lie" and a manufactured pretext to justify imminent Russian strikes against the government quarter in Kyiv (Zelenskiy / Official, 1550Z; Оперативний ЗСУ, 1542Z; HIGH).
RF COMMAND CONSULTATION: Vladimir Putin held a high-level briefing with Chief of General Staff Gerasimov and regional group commanders to discuss current operational status (Рыбарь, 1535Z; MEDIUM).
AERIAL BOMBARDMENT ESCALATION: UAF Air Force confirms new launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting both Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the Kupyansk/Izyum districts of Kharkiv Oblast (Air Force UA, 1542Z, 1555Z; HIGH).
SECURITY PACT CLARIFICATION: Details of the US-Ukraine framework specify a 15-year duration with $100bn in reparations to be disbursed in equal tranches over the next two years (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 1543Z; HIGH).
ATTRITION FOOTAGE: Geolocation of drone footage confirms high RF infantry losses in the Novotoretske sector (Donetsk), indicating sustained high-intensity combat on the approaches to Pokrovsk (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 1556Z; MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Sumy/Kharkiv): The threat to Sumy remains high via KAB strikes. New KAB activity in Kupyansk and Izyum (1555Z) suggests RF is attempting to suppress UAF tactical reserves and logistics hubs supporting the Oskil river line.
Eastern Axis (Donbas): Combat at Novotoretske (1556Z) confirms RF continues to prioritize the encirclement of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration, despite heavy localized infantry losses to UAF FPV and artillery.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Continued KAB strikes (1542Z) indicate a shaping operation. This supports the previous report's assessment of an RF push toward the "15km" mark from Zaporizhzhia city.
Strategic Rear (Kyiv): Heightened alert status for Air Defense. Kremlin-aligned media and bloggers are explicitly calling for "Kinzhal" strikes on the "Government Quarter" (Bankova) (Colonelcassad, 1552Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shift: Putin's meeting with group commanders (1535Z) suggests a synchronization of effort across the front, likely to maximize territorial gains before the diplomatic framework mentioned in the Trump-Putin call gains momentum.
Psychological Operations: RF sources are framing UAF as a "terrorist organization" (НгП раZVедка, 1541Z) to decouple UAF actions from Western defense support and provide legal domestic cover for strikes on civilian/administrative leadership.
Hybrid Suppression: The disruption of accessibility services within Russia (1552Z) indicates an ongoing hardening of the internal RF information space, likely to prevent uncontrolled reporting during a potential escalation.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Diplomatic Maneuvering: Zelenskyy is leveraging the "positive" Trump-Putin call to highlight Russian "dangerous statements" as a deliberate attempt by the Kremlin to sabotage peace initiatives (Zelenskiy / Official, 1550Z).
Defensive Posture: UAF continues to prioritize remote mining and drone-led attrition (Novotoretske) to compensate for RF localized manpower advantages.
Information Counter-Offensive: Immediate and high-volume denial of the Valdai incident aims to deprive the RF of "uncontested narrative" status in Western capitals.
Information environment / disinformation
"Valdai Pretext" (UNCONFIRMED/LOW CONFIDENCE): While RF claims 91 drones, there is ZERO visual evidence of an attack on the Valdai residence. This increasingly appears to be a "Maskirovka" operation to justify a heavy strike on Kyiv.
Diplomatic Divergence: Russian state media (TASS) emphasizes the "positive" nature of the Trump-Putin call, while hardline military bloggers (Alex Parker, Colonelcassad) continue to demand the total destruction of the Ukrainian state apparatus, suggesting a coordinated "good cop/bad cop" strategy.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): A massed UAV/Missile strike on Kyiv tonight, potentially including high-value symbolic targets (Government Quarter) to "retaliate" for the alleged Valdai incident.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Synchronized ground assaults in the Zaporizhzhia sector (aiming for the 15km city limit) supported by the current KAB surge, timed to coincide with the panic of a Kyiv missile strike.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Kyiv Air Defense Density: Confirm readiness of PAC-3/SAMP-T batteries around the Government Quarter.
RF Heavy Bomber Movements: Monitor Olenya and Engels-2 for Tu-95/Tu-160 sorties within the next 4 hours.
Zaporizhzhia FEBA: Verify if current KAB strikes are hitting the primary defensive line or the 2nd/3rd echelons.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The conflict has entered a critical phase where high-level diplomacy (Trump-Putin call) is occurring simultaneously with a peak in escalatory rhetoric. The "Valdai Incident" is the primary driver of the current threat cycle.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: RF is using a dual-track approach: diplomatic openness to the new US administration while intensifying tactical pressure (KABs) and psychological warfare (threats to Bankova).
FRIENDLY FORCES: Ukraine is focused on codifying security guarantees (15-year pact) while preparing for a major kinetic "retaliation" strike in the capital.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: The narrative battle is currently focused on the legitimacy of the Valdai strike claim. UAF's quick denial is intended to preempt RF's "self-defense" justification.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: The next 12 hours carry a CRITICAL risk of missile strikes on Kyiv. Tactical focus remains on Zaporizhzhia and the Oskil river line (Kupyansk).
