ALLEGED STRATEGIC DRONE STRIKE: Russian FM Lavrov claims a mass drone attack (91 UAVs) targeted the Presidential residence in Valdai, Novgorod Oblast (approx. 400km north of Ukraine) on the night of 29 DEC. (1510Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
NEGOTIATION SHIFT: RF leadership announced a "review" of their negotiating position, labeling UAF actions as "state terrorism" following the alleged Valdai incident (1511Z, TASS, HIGH).
SUMY AERIAL ASSAULT: Continuous launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against Sumy Oblast reported throughout the last hour (1519Z-1528Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
HULYAIPOLE RECONNAISSANCE: RF "Vostok" Group of Forces (36th Army) reports identifying UAF logistics and ammunition delivery movements north of Hulyaipole via UAV (1522Z, RF MoD, MEDIUM).
CASUALTY NOTIFICATION: Death of Police Captain Dmytro Shushpanov (3rd Battalion, Kramatorsk/Sloviansk) confirmed due to injuries sustained in the line of duty (1521Z, Biloshitskiy, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Sumy): Intense aerial bombardment. Multiple KAB strikes indicate a sustained effort to degrade UAF defensive infrastructure and potentially prepare the area for the "20km proximity" push mentioned in previous reports.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Hulyaipole): RF forces are utilizing ISR assets (Vostok Group) to target tactical supply lines north of Hulyaipole. This suggests RF is shifting focus from frontline assaults to interdicting the flow of materiel to the Orikhiv-Hulyaipole sector.
Strategic Rear (Russia): The alleged 91-UAV attack on the Novgorod residence represents a massive (if confirmed) breach of RF air defenses. However, lack of visual evidence of damage suggests either a highly successful intercept or a manufactured pretext for escalation.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action - Retaliation: RF mil-bloggers and official channels are explicitly threatening a massive "response strike" (1515Z, Alex Parker Returns). The timing and targets are reportedly "defined," indicating a high probability of a coordinated missile/UAV wave tonight.
Tactical Reconnaissance: Increased focus on UAF rear logistics in the Hulyaipole sector suggests a refinement of RF targeting to isolate UAF forward positions before the next mechanized push toward Zaporizhzhia.
Internal Pressure: Hardline Russian bloggers (e.g., Alex Parker) are criticizing the RF MoD for "restraint" in not leveling cities like Kharkiv with heavy artillery, indicating internal pressure to abandon remaining rules of engagement (1511Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Logistics Operations: Active resupply is ongoing in the Hulyaipole sector, though currently under RF aerial surveillance (Vostok Group).
Asymmetric Attrition: Drone operators (Butusov reports) claim significant infantry attrition against RF units (up to 50 personnel in recent engagements) (1517Z, MEDIUM).
Information Counter-Operations: The Center for Countering Disinformation (CPD) has officially characterized the Novgorod incident narrative as a Russian mask for planned terror (1532Z, HIGH).
Information environment / disinformation
"State Terrorism" Narrative: Russia is pivoting its diplomatic language to classify UAF as a "terrorist regime" to justify potential strikes on non-military "decision-making centers" or to withdraw from previously discussed security frameworks.
Discrepancy in Reporting: Russian sources claim 91 drones were destroyed without damage (1517Z), yet use this as a justification for a major strategic shift. This suggests the narrative of the attack is more important to the Kremlin than the actual kinetic result.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): A high-volume missile and Shahed-type UAV strike on Kyiv and Sumy energy infrastructure tonight, framed as "retaliation" for the Novgorod incident.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF forces translate the Sumy KAB strikes into a ground probe or diversionary raid to exploit the confusion generated by the "state terrorism" narrative and the Druzhba pipeline fire.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Physical Battle Damage Assessment (Novgorod): Independent verification (SAR or commercial imagery) of the Presidential residence in Valdai to determine if a kinetic event occurred or if the "91 drones" claim is purely informational.
Vostok Group Positioning: Identify if the UAV reconnaissance north of Hulyaipole is being followed by mechanized movement of the 36th Army.
Logistics Security: Assess the security of UAF supply routes north of Hulyaipole in light of confirmed RF ISR coverage.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
SITUATION OVERVIEW: The operational tempo is accelerating on the Sumy and Zaporizhzhia axes. The strategic focus has shifted to a "retaliation" narrative following alleged long-range UAF strikes.
ENEMY ANALYSIS: RF is using Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) as their primary tool for shaping the northern front while using ISR to interdict southern logistics. Political messaging suggests a move toward "total war" rhetoric.
FRIENDLY FORCES: UAF remains in a defensive/stabilization phase, focusing on logistical sustainment under fire and high-efficiency drone attrition.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT: The Kremlin is successfully synchronizing tactical claims (Zaporizhzhia 15km) with strategic grievances (Novgorod attack) to prepare domestic and international audiences for escalation.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS: Next 12 hours are critical for air defense readiness. Expect RF to prioritize targets with high symbolic value in "retaliation."
