KREMLIN STRATEGIC REVIEW: President Putin, Defense Minister Belousov, and NGSH Gerasimov held a high-level briefing on the "SVO" zone. Claims include the capture of 334 settlements in the past year and operations moving "ahead of schedule" (ТАСС, 1336Z; Операция Z, 1354Z, HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA OFFENSIVE MANEUVER: RF forces (specifically the 35th Army, "Vostok" Group) are intensifying drone and ground operations near Orikhiv. Russian sources indicate a multi-pronged push toward Zaporizhzhia city (Два майора, 1345Z; Воин DV, 1400Z, HIGH).
SUMY BORDER THREAT (UNCONFIRMED): Kremlin-aligned sources continue to report RF proximity within 20km of Sumy city, framing it as a central discussion point in the Putin briefing (WarGonzo, 1402Z, LOW).
US-UA SECURITY FRAMEWORK: Defense Minister Umerov confirmed significant progress with US counterparts on the "peace framework" and security guarantees, following the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1357Z, HIGH).
RF MANPOWER DISCIPLINE: The Kremlin has increased prison sentences to 20 years for former convicts who desert their units, indicating a move to tighten control over "Storm" type detachments (Север.Реалии, 1357Z, MEDIUM).
INFRASTRUCTURE RESILIENCE: Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation confirmed mobile networks are being reinforced to remain operational during 14-hour blackouts (РБК-Україна, 1336Z, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole):
Orikhiv Sector: Heavy kinetic activity. RF is utilizing high-density drone strikes (35th Army) to suppress UAF armored movements. Situation maps indicate RF intent to bypass Orikhiv to the west/east to facilitate a broader drive on Zaporizhzhia city (Два майора, 1345Z; Воин DV, 1400Z).
Rear Logistics: ZODA (Regional Military Administration) continues civilian health and evacuation measures, anticipating further escalation (🇺🇦 ЗАДА 🇺🇦, 1354Z).
Eastern Axis (Donbas/Siversk):
Siversk/Svyato-Pokrovskoye: Rybar reports UAF counterattacks west of Siversk, suggesting UAF is attempting to disrupt RF's flanking maneuvers reported in the previous 24h cycle (Рыбарь, 1401Z).
Logistics: FPV drone activity in snowy conditions continues to paralyze local transport near the front lines; video evidence shows successful strikes on transport vehicles (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 1347Z).
Northern Axis (Sumy):
Sumy Border: The claim of a 20km proximity to Sumy remains a primary Russian IO objective. While unconfirmed by visual evidence, its inclusion in Kremlin-level briefings suggests a possible intent to open a new operational direction to fix UAF reserves (WarGonzo, 1402Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shift: Minister Belousov’s claim of "ahead of schedule" operations suggests a desire to achieve specific territorial objectives (likely Zaporizhzhia and Kupyansk) before the Orthodox Christmas or early January diplomatic windows.
Manpower Policy: The drastic increase in desertion penalties (20 years for convicts) suggests high attrition or declining morale within mobilized/convict units. This is a critical indicator of potential future instability in RF infantry quality (Север.Реалии, 1357Z).
Information Operations: RF channels are circulating a narrative regarding a US operation in Venezuela ("Southern Spear"), likely a "noise" campaign designed to distract from the intensification of the Zaporizhzhia offensive or to frame US foreign policy as overextended (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, 1404Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Policy: Minister Umerov is formalizing the "peace framework" and security guarantees with the US. This suggests the 15-year pact mentioned in the previous sitrep is moving into the implementation phase (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1357Z).
Domestic Stability: Minister Fedorov clarified that digital elections (via Diia) will not occur without legislative changes, aiming to stabilize the internal political environment during the "Trump window" (РБК-Україна, 1348Z).
Logistics Resilience: Ensuring 14-hour mobile connectivity during blackouts is critical for C2 and civilian morale as the RF strategic strike campaign continues.
Information environment / disinformation
"Peace" Rhetoric: Ukrainian sources are highlighting (and critiquing) comments attributed to Donald Trump regarding "believing Putin wants peace." This is being used to manage domestic expectations and maintain a hardline defensive stance (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1343Z).
Russian "Normality": RU state media continues to project an image of domestic stability through holiday-themed content (Noginsk, Moscow holiday promos), contrasting with the high-intensity military briefings (Новости Москвы, 1343Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will maintain the high tempo of the Zaporizhzhia offensive, focusing on the Orikhiv-Zaporizhzhia highway. Expect localized UAF counterattacks in the Siversk sector to persist.
MDCOA: A snap cross-border assault in the Sumy region. While currently assessed as an IO threat, the elevation of the "20km" claim to Kremlin-level briefings increases the risk of a real-world tactical diversion.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Sumy Vector: Immediate SIGINT/ELINT required to identify if RF "Group North" has moved additional battalion tactical groups (BTGs) to the Sumy border to back the 20km proximity claim.
Orikhiv Breakthrough: Confirmation of current control lines west of Orikhiv. Determine if RF is utilizing the "Omich" robotic platforms mentioned in the 28 DEC report for local canal crossings.
Internal RU Morale: Monitor "Storm" unit communications for reactions to the new 20-year desertion penalty to assess near-term combat persistence.
