RF COMMAND LEVEL STRATEGIC REVIEW: President Putin convened a high-level meeting with Gen. Gerasimov and theater commanders to review "SVO" progress and set immediate objectives for Jan-Feb 2026 (TASS, 1311Z, HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA SECTOR BREAKTHROUGH: RF "Vostok" and "Dnipro" groups claim to have pierced UAF defensive lines, reportedly capturing Lukyanivske and advancing toward Primorske and Orikhiv in a push toward Zaporizhzhia city (TASS, 1317Z; Putin via TASS, 1318Z, MEDIUM).
SUMY BORDER THREAT: RF Commander of Group "North" claims Russian forces have advanced to within 20km of Sumy city (Colonelcassad, 1326Z; TASS, 1327Z, MEDIUM).
US-UKRAINE SECURITY PACT: President Zelenskyy confirmed a 15-year security guarantee agreement with the US following the Trump meeting, including a $100bn reparations/frozen asset transfer plan over two years (Zelenskiy/Official, 1327Z-1332Z, HIGH).
KUPYANSK LIQUIDATION TIMELINE: RF Group "West" Commander Kuzovlev formally projected the "destruction" of the UAF Kupyansk grouping by Feb 2026 (TASS, 1327Z, MEDIUM).
GRYSHYNE PENETRATION: RF forces claim control of the southeastern portion of Gryshyne (Grishino), signaling further erosion of the Pokrovsk-sector flanks (TASS, 1316Z, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole):
Zaporizhzhia Direction: Significant escalation. RF claims to be moving "decisively" toward Zaporizhzhia city. Fighting is concentrated around Orikhiv.
Primorske/Lukyanivske: RF claims of control in Lukyanivske suggest a widening of the breach identified in the 28 DEC daily report. UAF Zaporizhzhia Regional Administration has activated a unified evacuation hotline, suggesting an imminent threat to civilian centers (ZODA, 1326Z).
Huliaipole: Remains under extreme pressure; RF milbloggers are mocking UAF claims of holding the city, suggesting the "unfavorable terrain" mentioned in previous sitreps has led to tactical shifts (Starshiy Eddy, 1320Z).
Northern Axis (Kupyansk/Sumy):
Sumy: The claim of RF units within 20km of the city indicates a potential new front activation or significant cross-border raid capability. This forces UAF to divert reserves from the Donbas to secure the northern border.
Kupyansk: RF intent is now explicitly stated as a "liquidation" operation through Feb 2026. Putin has ordered the decisive suppression of UAF interference with RF movements in the city (TASS, 1323Z).
Eastern Axis (Donbas/Sloviansk):
Sloviansk: WarGonzo reports a "dirty sky" (high drone density) and "quiet roads," indicating that traditional logistics are paralyzed by FPV and ISR assets, shifting the tactical fight to small-unit infantry engagements (WarGonzo, 1321Z).
Gryshyne: RF capture of the SE sector (1316Z) threatens to compromise the tactical rear of the Pokrovsk defensive anchor.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Tempo: Gerasimov claims December has seen the fastest RF advancement rate of 2025 (32 settlements in 30 days). This indicates a "push-to-threshold" strategy to maximize territorial gains before any potential diplomatic freeze (TASS, 1333Z).
Intent: The RF high command is signaling a shift from attritional grinding to operational breakthroughs (Zaporizhzhia, Sumy) and the elimination of specific pockets (Kupyansk).
Internal Security: Continued high-profile treason and corruption sentencings (Vlasov, 11 years; Vologda deputy's daughter) suggest the Kremlin is tightening internal discipline to sustain a long-term war footing (TASS, 1308Z; Sever.Realii, 1320Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Diplomacy: The Zelenskyy-Trump framework establishes a 15-year security baseline with a "step-by-step" plan. The focus on $100bn in reparations over two years suggests a shift toward long-term economic sustainability for the defense sector (Zelenskiy/Official, 1328Z).
Tactical Resilience: 92nd Brigade continues to conduct effective local counter-attacks/ambushes, evidenced by recent prisoner captures (Tsaplienko, 1330Z).
Civilian Protection: ZODA is proactively managing the evacuation of the Zaporizhzhia front, indicating a high degree of civil-military coordination in the face of the RF breakthrough.
Information environment / disinformation
Negotiation Friction: Polish PM Tusk and President Zelenskyy are both signaling that "peace is far from final." Zelenskyy's Fox News interview (87% want peace / 85% against giving up Donbas) is a strategic messaging effort to frame UAF's refusal to concede territory as a democratic mandate (RBC-UA, 1326Z).
RF Internal Critique: High-profile RU channels (Alex Parker Returns) are expressing skepticism of the "victory" narrative, questioning why the Kremlin is discussing ZNPP joint management or leaving Kherson if the military situation is "so good" (1319Z). This highlights a rift between official state propaganda and the ultra-nationalist "Z-warrior" faction.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will continue the multi-axis push toward Orikhiv and Primorske to capitalize on the collapse of the Huliaipole-sector flanks.
MDCOA: RF may initiate a high-intensity cross-border operation toward Sumy to coincide with New Year festivities, aiming to cause panic in the northern rear and force a mass reallocation of UAF air defense and motorized units.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Sumy Proximity: Urgent ISR required to confirm the 20km RF proximity claim. Identify if this is a conventional force or SOF/DRG units.
Lukyanivske/Primorske Status: Visual confirmation needed of RF presence in these settlements to determine if the Zaporizhzhia defensive line has been fully bypassed.
Reparations Mechanism: Determine the "step-by-step" criteria for the $100bn asset transfer to assess its impact on immediate ammunition procurement.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
Battlefield Geometry: Widening of the Southern breach; new threat vector established toward Sumy.
Threat: RF GCHQ/Kremlin alignment on a Jan-Feb 2026 "liquidation" phase for Kupyansk.
Friendly: Sustained diplomatic momentum via US security guarantees; high domestic resolve (85% non-concession) despite operational pressure.
